Tropical Depression LORENZO: Discussions & Images

[Ed Mahmoud]

I have one word! Not again! Let it go to TX/LA since they need the rain. I have to admit that the clouds looked pretty wild this morning when I pulled up the radar.

We need the rain?

Hasn't rained at my house since the morning before Humberto made landfall. Rain pretty much ended in HOU area long before it made landfall.

I'm going to mow when I get home, and then, if I can remember how, since I haven't done it all summer, drag out the sprinkler.

[hurricanetrack]

Hopefully this system won't cause the uproar the TD10 did- with very little model support at all, it appears that this is just another rain maker- possible 10th named storm of the year, that is all. Unless someone has data to show otherwise, this appears to be another weak system with very little potential. Very good news for those not wanting any hurricanes. We'll see how long this lasts...there was Humberto of course....

[Ed Mahmoud]

I know we're not supposed to wishcast, but I wish for a 30 mph, nah 40 mph T.S. Jerry to move through, drop two or three inches of rain, and move on out.

[Sanibel]

No Floater? Must be the weekend.

[ROCK]

I know we're not supposed to wishcast, but I wish for a 30 mph, nah 40 mph T.S. Jerry to move through, drop two or three inches of rain, and move on out.

I agree Ed, my yard is awefully dry right now.....sprinklers going full force today.....

[Ed Mahmoud]

No Floater? Must be the weekend.

We don't need no steenkin' floaters!

[Ed Mahmoud]

Nothing that resembles a closed low, really, but some 30 knot winds...

[jabman98]

Hasn't rained at my house since the morning before Humberto made landfall. Rain pretty much ended in HOU area long before it made landfall.

I'm going to mow when I get home, and then, if I can remember how, since I haven't done it all summer, drag out the sprinkler.

Same here, Ed. We've had loads of rain over the summer, but not much in the last two weeks. I wouldn't mind a small shower to bring a little rain. Just enough so I don't have to water.

[LJR]

I have one word! Not again!.

Are you seeing double ....That's two words

[Ptarmigan]

Alabama can take all the rain they want. I think 94L could develop, especially if it moves slowly. Probably a TS or Category 1 at most.

[sphelps8681]

How often do the models update?

[RL3AO]

How often do the models update?

most of them are every 6 hours

[wxman57]

I can see it being possible that we will see a sheared TS out of this before it finally makes landfall in Texas or SW Louisiana, but ATM I am not too worried about anything too strong or destructive. Will be interesting to monitor though..especially since the SHIPS models bring this up to 55-64 knots.

Unless it stalls like the BAMs are showing, in which case it could develop into a major.

That won't happen. The BAMs won't see the deepening trof across the western Gulf. That's why all the dynamic global models take the system rapidly NNW-N into east TX and LA on Monday. They DO see the changing upper-level wind pattern.

[swimaster20]

That won't happen. The BAMs won't see the deepening trof across the western Gulf. That's why all the dynamic global models take the system rapidly NNW-N into east TX and LA on Monday. They DO see the changing upper-level wind pattern.

Wxman57, do you think it will develop at all into a tropical system? Or will it just be a rain event?

[wxman57]

Just looking at the pattern of squalls, it reminds me very much of a "storm" that moved into Houston about 6 years ago. Anyone remember Alison? Alison formed a weak LLC that was sheared and exposed to the west of a massive area of squalls that extended from the upper TX coast all the way to the Yucatan. It didn't produce any wind when it came ashore (just TS force winds offshore) but it dropped 6-12" of rain on its first pass through Houston. This time, though, the remnant low should only make one pass through the area. Watch the MPEG below and pause it near the point when Alison's center is on the TX coast. Look at the squalls extending across the Gulf toward the Yucatan.

You can see the upper high on the east side, as indicated by the good outflow pattern in the east semicircle. But there's clearly a deep upper trof to the west. Exactly the pattern that's developing in the Gulf over the next 2 days.

ftp://eclipse.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/isccp/b1/hurr/mpg/2001NAALL.mpg

[jaxfladude]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

It's alive.

Please for the sake of Storm2K Forums, die Invest 94L, Please Just Die!!!

[drezee]

That recon is not for 94L.

[Brent]

That recon is not for 94L.

Huh? What is it for then? 94L will be in the Gulf tomorrow so I'm confused.

[wxman57]

Just wanted to make clear that I used the Alison analogy above only with respect to the upper air pattern developing across the Gulf and the appearance of the squall area. I don't want anyone to get the idea that I'm forecasting 30+ inches of rain over east Texas from a remnant low that won't go away. However, such a deep flow of moisture could easily produce widespread 5-10 inch amounts on Monday as it moves ashore.

[dixiebreeze]

The Recon is for 94L