CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[HURAKAN]

[Ptarmigan]

Dean is forecasted to be a Category 4 with 120 kts (140 mph) and hit Yucatan. Not good for them, especially they are still recovering from Wilma. Then it should enter the Gulf of Mexico as a Category 1 hurricane. From there, it will likely strengthen.

[Ptarmigan]

Since Dean is small, I expect he will strengthen quickly. Sometimes, small hurricanes can grow into massive hurricanes, the most notorious is Katrina, which grew from a small midget hurricane over Florida into a monster heading towards Louisiana and Mississippi.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Landfall Mexico.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_174l.gif

[Wx_Warrior]

I did go all in on Tx/La coast right??? Im broke.

[Aric Dunn]

Well I only put this link out here to give everyone the opportunity to look at a very well developmet hurricane as it passes thru .. the link is public but last time a couple of years ago it crashed do to traffic .. Im hoping to get a good glimpse of the core before that happens.. but here is the radar out of Guadeloupe for those of you who dont have already.

if it gets anything like a couple years ago then it will probably will if we all hit refresh to much

but oh well hopefully we get a good shot of it tonight


http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... SAIC2.html

[DESTRUCTION5]

Landfall Mexico.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_174l.gif

As a New Cane enters the Carribean..

[SouthFloridawx]

860
URNT15 KNHC 161635
AF304 0104A DEAN HDOB 11 20070816
162600 1605N 05819W 4683 06411 0359 -074 -292 071025 025 999 999 03
162630 1604N 05817W 4897 06062 0336 -058 -313 071027 027 999 999 03
162700 1604N 05815W 5114 05721 0314 -034 -339 078029 030 999 999 03
162730 1603N 05813W 5337 05381 0292 -009 -347 091027 030 999 999 03
162800 1603N 05810W 5569 05039 0079 +008 -244 093025 026 999 999 03
162830 1602N 05808W 5766 04756 0104 +007 -100 095026 028 030 004 00
162900 1602N 05806W 5920 04542 0125 +011 -111 090032 032 028 005 00
162930 1601N 05804W 6051 04368 0133 +017 -050 088034 035 029 004 00
163000 1601N 05802W 6166 04216 0139 +022 -003 089038 038 029 005 00
163030 1600N 05801W 6286 04059 0141 +029 +005 084038 038 030 005 00
163100 1559N 05759W 6428 03878 0135 +042 +017 079035 036 999 999 03
163130 1557N 05758W 6550 03719 0136 +049 +040 079036 036 025 005 03
163200 1556N 05757W 6666 03577 0134 +060 +041 081037 038 027 005 00
163230 1554N 05756W 6789 03425 0128 +071 +047 079037 038 027 005 00
163300 1552N 05754W 6917 03268 0126 +082 +035 075041 043 028 004 00
163330 1551N 05753W 6966 03206 0121 +087 +023 073042 043 029 004 00
163400 1549N 05752W 6967 03204 0121 +086 +031 074041 041 027 005 00
163430 1548N 05751W 6965 03206 0123 +085 +034 074041 042 027 005 00
163500 1546N 05749W 6967 03206 0121 +085 +038 073041 042 027 005 00
163530 1545N 05748W 6967 03203 0121 +085 +049 073040 040 028 005 00
$$

[cpdaman]

what is the big deal with the "GIV" data i mean can it magically predict wether the ridge or ULL will cause it to stay the course into N. mexico or make a turn into the gulf?

[digitaldahling]

The islands need our attention as they face this terrible storm which no doubt will cause havoc for many.

K

Get an update on what the Shell Oil facility in Yabucoa is doing. They are usually ahead of the mainstream with their preparations for tropical storms/hurricanes. Follow their lead.

[canegrl04]

Since Dean is small, I expect he will strengthen quickly. Sometimes, small hurricanes can grow into massive hurricanes, the most notorious is Katrina, which grew from a small midget hurricane over Florida into a monster heading towards Louisiana and Mississippi.

Camille was a small hurricane all the way,and its still the strongest to have ever hit the US.It looked like a crab in the GOM

[Extremeweatherguy]

12z GFS = another landfall near the Texas/Mexico border.

[chaupal]

I did go all in on Tx/La coast right??? Im broke.

I think it is a close call. If I have to bet right now, I will bet on TX landfall. This is purely on my past experience that as storms get closer to GOM, tracks starts moving east with every run. I am not a Met or any thing and am just learning here.

[WmE]

Since Dean is small, I expect he will strengthen quickly. Sometimes, small hurricanes can grow into massive hurricanes, the most notorious is Katrina, which grew from a small midget hurricane over Florida into a monster heading towards Louisiana and Mississippi.

Camille was a small hurricane all the way,and its still the strongest to have ever hit the US.It looked like a crab in the GOM

Wasn't the labor day hurricane the strongest to hit the USA?

[vaffie]

all I can say is...<GULP>

http://i90.photobucket.com/albums/k280/ ... _6_ms3.png

*this was posted on the KHOU Forum. I'm not sure how authentic it is.*

It's authentic, you can see them on the Methaz website too:

http://hurricane.methaz.org/tracking/

[Extremeweatherguy]

I did go all in on Tx/La coast right??? Im broke.

I think it is a close call. If I have to bet right now, I will bet on TX landfall. This is purely on my past experience that as storms get closer to GOM, tracks starts moving east with every run. I am not a Met or any thing and am just learning here.

yeah, that weakness the GFS depicts earlier in the run might pull this slightly further north before turning it back WNW. We will just have to see what happens..

[Cyclone1]

Since Dean is small, I expect he will strengthen quickly. Sometimes, small hurricanes can grow into massive hurricanes, the most notorious is Katrina, which grew from a small midget hurricane over Florida into a monster heading towards Louisiana and Mississippi.

Camille was a small hurricane all the way,and its still the strongest to have ever hit the US.It looked like a crab in the GOM

Wasn't the labor day hurricane the strongest to hit the USA?

Yes, it was also abnormally small.

[Wx_Warrior]

We'll be dodging bullets for the next 6-8 weeks.

[Extremeweatherguy]

all I can say is...<GULP>

http://i90.photobucket.com/albums/k280/ ... _6_ms3.png

*this was posted on the KHOU Forum. I'm not sure how authentic it is.*

It's authentic, you can see them on the Methaz website too:

http://hurricane.methaz.org/tracking/

[Tireman4]

Question...not that I am doubting anything, but is the GFS model good for tropical forecasts? Or is NAM the one that is not good? I am so confused.