CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[cycloneye]

yep.. cant remember when the last time was that i saw a core that small...



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

Wilma?

[Scorpion]

Could be some pretty strong winds then

[Aric Dunn]

yep.. cant remember when the last time was that i saw a core that small...



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

wilma comes to mind



WILMA

[Extremeweatherguy]

new UKMET turns the storm north toward TX...very similar to the AEMN.

[Steve]

Old run image deleted. Sorry for the squirrley picture

Steve

[cpdaman]

very tiny core lets hope this passes IN between the islands (most likely closest to martinique IMO)

because i think such a tiny core (like Aric's graphic shows) means two things

less total size of devestating winds

and easier to RI my guess is it will be stronger than forecast with hurricane winds going out only about 25-30miles either side when it reaches the islands

[Aric Dunn]

OK that was weird..

whats the deal with the center reformation farther west on this loop... maybe its just a mess up...


DEAN



notice the core getting much deeper convection towards the end ..

[Cape Verde]

Excellent question! The GFS does a nice job of forecasting the movement of synoptic features. It handles Dean about the same whether it is a cat 4 or a cat1

I wish I had a clue what synoptic features are.

[vaffie]

Only decent thing I can say about that Nogaps run is that it would have to interact with the mountains of Haiti and the DR, so that would help to break the storm up a bit....

The NOGAPS has consistently been well to the right of the other forecasts and has not held up so far. It was until recently showing it traveling north of the Dominican Republic and Cuba. Just something to bear in mind.

[Lowpressure]

Recon finding some pretty high winds and not even near the heart of the system. Some around 66mph, obviously flight level. Drop looked pretty good too, to be so far out. This may be very interesting, or just have a bigger wind field than expected.

[SouthFloridawx]

007
URNT15 KNHC 161713
AF304 0104A DEAN HDOB 15 20070816
170600 1432N 05637W 6964 03164 0062 +093 +050 066041 041 033 005 00
170630 1432N 05636W 6965 03162 0062 +092 +046 069043 044 033 006 00
170700 1431N 05635W 6969 03156 0057 +093 +046 066044 044 034 006 00
170730 1430N 05633W 6965 03159 0057 +093 +048 065048 050 035 006 00
170800 1429N 05632W 6963 03159 0058 +090 +051 064050 050 035 006 00
170830 1429N 05631W 6972 03148 0052 +095 +049 066050 051 036 005 00
170900 1428N 05629W 6963 03158 0048 +098 +046 065050 050 035 006 00
170930 1427N 05628W 6970 03147 0051 +095 +048 069052 053 035 006 00
171000 1427N 05626W 6963 03156 0044 +099 +047 067052 052 036 006 00
171030 1426N 05625W 6967 03148 0046 +095 +053 068052 053 035 006 00
171100 1425N 05624W 6963 03153 0045 +095 +055 065053 054 035 006 03
171130 1424N 05623W 6970 03143 0041 +097 +055 064054 055 035 006 00
171200 1422N 05622W 6964 03151 0042 +096 +056 064052 054 035 006 00
171230 1421N 05621W 6965 03147 0040 +095 +072 068052 053 035 006 00
171300 1420N 05620W 6967 03146 0038 +095 +078 068051 052 035 006 00
171330 1419N 05619W 6972 03137 0049 +086 +069 065056 058 034 006 00
171400 1417N 05617W 6969 03142 0046 +088 +069 065055 058 035 008 00
171430 1416N 05616W 6963 03147 0047 +085 +077 065055 056 035 007 00
171500 1415N 05615W 6966 03143 0041 +089 +082 063052 053 034 008 00
171530 1414N 05614W 6972 03135 9990 +086 +999 058051 052 037 007 01
$$

[cycloneye]

Cant wait to see the 00z guidance with the data from the gulfstream jet.

[HouTXmetro]

So are any of the models coming in line with the GFDL?

[Scorpion]

Its a messup.. check the time lapse

[BigD]

deleted because of incorrect nogaps link

[vacanechaser]

yep.. cant remember when the last time was that i saw a core that small...



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

wilma comes to mind



WILMA

yep.. i guess so... thanx aric and luis...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[crazycajuncane]

new UKMET turns the storm north toward TX...very similar to the AEMN.

If any of these models nudge north... besides the ones that haven't already.. we are going to miss the Yucatan all together and the GOM will be dealing with a very potent Hurricane Dean.

[Sabanic]

Only decent thing I can say about that Nogaps run is that it would have to interact with the mountains of Haiti and the DR, so that would help to break the storm up a bit....

The NOGAPS has consistently been well to the right of the other forecasts and has not held up so far. It was until recently showing it traveling north of the Dominican Republic and Cuba. Just something to bear in mind.

Agreed, but there does, at least on the latest runs, seem to be a slight trend beginning to move a bit further northward

[Ivanhater]

Ok steve help me out ..my link still has nogaps coming out and much further south to mid yucatan...
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/wxmap_single.cgi?area=ngp_troplant&dtg=2007081612&prod=usf&tau=120

[Aric Dunn]

Its a messup.. check the time lapse

I dont see any hicup the time starts out

2007-08-16 00:00 -- 2007-08-16 15:45

nothing wrong with the lapse ..

it may have been a IRC of some sort.. notice the WILMA animation.. the old center does the same fading thing..