CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Scorpion]

I disagree.. look at the loop again and there is a hiccup

[Starburst]

Code: Select all

Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 16th day of the month at 17:13Z
Date: August 16, 2007
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last digit of aircraft registration number is 304)
Storm Number: 04
Storm Name: Dean (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 15
 
Time (Z) /  Coordinates /  Acft. Static Air Press. /  Acft. Geo. Hgt. /  Extrap. Sfc. Press. /  Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) /  Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind /  SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind /  SFMR Rain Rate
17:06:00 14.53N 56.62W 696.4 mb 3,164 m 1006.2 mb From 66° (ENE) at 41 kts (47.1 mph) 41 kts (~ 47.1 mph) 33 kts 5 mm/hr
17:06:30 14.53N 56.60W 696.5 mb 3,162 m 1006.2 mb From 69° (ENE) at 43 kts (49.4 mph) 44 kts (~ 50.6 mph) 33 kts 6 mm/hr
17:07:00 14.52N 56.58W 696.9 mb 3,156 m 1005.7 mb From 66° (ENE) at 44 kts (50.6 mph) 44 kts (~ 50.6 mph) 34 kts 6 mm/hr
17:07:30 14.50N 56.55W 696.5 mb 3,159 m 1005.7 mb From 65° (ENE) at 48 kts (55.2 mph) 50 kts (~ 57.5 mph) 35 kts 6 mm/hr
17:08:00 14.48N 56.53W 696.3 mb 3,159 m 1005.8 mb From 64° (ENE) at 50 kts (57.5 mph) 50 kts (~ 57.5 mph) 35 kts 6 mm/hr
17:08:30 14.48N 56.52W 697.2 mb 3,148 m 1005.2 mb From 66° (ENE) at 50 kts (57.5 mph) 51 kts (~ 58.6 mph) 36 kts 5 mm/hr
17:09:00 14.47N 56.48W 696.3 mb 3,158 m 1004.8 mb From 65° (ENE) at 50 kts (57.5 mph) 50 kts (~ 57.5 mph) 35 kts 6 mm/hr
17:09:30 14.45N 56.47W 697.0 mb 3,147 m 1005.1 mb From 69° (ENE) at 52 kts (59.8 mph) 53 kts (~ 60.9 mph) 35 kts 6 mm/hr
17:10:00 14.45N 56.43W 696.3 mb 3,156 m 1004.4 mb From 67° (ENE) at 52 kts (59.8 mph) 52 kts (~ 59.8 mph) 36 kts 6 mm/hr
17:10:30 14.43N 56.42W 696.7 mb 3,148 m 1004.6 mb From 68° (ENE) at 52 kts (59.8 mph) 53 kts (~ 60.9 mph) 35 kts 6 mm/hr
17:11:00 14.42N 56.40W 696.3 mb 3,153 m 1004.5 mb From 65° (ENE) at 53 kts (60.9 mph) 54 kts (~ 62.1 mph) 35 kts* 6 mm/hr*
17:11:30 14.40N 56.38W 697.0 mb 3,143 m 1004.1 mb From 64° (ENE) at 54 kts (62.1 mph) 55 kts (~ 63.2 mph) 35 kts 6 mm/hr
17:12:00 14.37N 56.37W 696.4 mb 3,151 m 1004.2 mb From 64° (ENE) at 52 kts (59.8 mph) 54 kts (~ 62.1 mph) 35 kts 6 mm/hr
17:12:30 14.35N 56.35W 696.5 mb 3,147 m 1004.0 mb From 68° (ENE) at 52 kts (59.8 mph) 53 kts (~ 60.9 mph) 35 kts 6 mm/hr
17:13:00 14.33N 56.33W 696.7 mb 3,146 m 1003.8 mb From 68° (ENE) at 51 kts (58.6 mph) 52 kts (~ 59.8 mph) 35 kts 6 mm/hr
17:13:30 14.32N 56.32W 697.2 mb 3,137 m 1004.9 mb From 65° (ENE) at 56 kts (64.4 mph) 58 kts (~ 66.7 mph) 34 kts 6 mm/hr
17:14:00 14.28N 56.28W 696.9 mb 3,142 m 1004.6 mb From 65° (ENE) at 55 kts (63.2 mph) 58 kts (~ 66.7 mph) 35 kts 8 mm/hr
17:14:30 14.27N 56.27W 696.3 mb 3,147 m 1004.7 mb From 65° (ENE) at 55 kts (63.2 mph) 56 kts (~ 64.4 mph) 35 kts 7 mm/hr
17:15:00 14.25N 56.25W 696.6 mb 3,143 m 1004.1 mb From 63° (ENE) at 52 kts (59.8 mph) 53 kts (~ 60.9 mph) 34 kts 8 mm/hr
17:15:30 14.23N 56.23W 697.2 mb 3,135 m - From 58° (ENE) at 51 kts (58.6 mph) 52 kts (~ 59.8 mph) 37 kts 7 mm/hr
At 17:06:00Z (first observation), the observation was 224 miles (361 km) to the ENE (63°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
At 17:15:30Z (last observation), the observation was 240 miles (387 km) to the ENE (71°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
 

 


[chadtm80]

007
URNT15 KNHC 161713
AF304 0104A DEAN HDOB 15 20070816
170600 1432N 05637W 6964 03164 0062 +093 +050 066041 041 033 005 00
170630 1432N 05636W 6965 03162 0062 +092 +046 069043 044 033 006 00
170700 1431N 05635W 6969 03156 0057 +093 +046 066044 044 034 006 00
170730 1430N 05633W 6965 03159 0057 +093 +048 065048 050 035 006 00
170800 1429N 05632W 6963 03159 0058 +090 +051 064050 050 035 006 00
170830 1429N 05631W 6972 03148 0052 +095 +049 066050 051 036 005 00
170900 1428N 05629W 6963 03158 0048 +098 +046 065050 050 035 006 00
170930 1427N 05628W 6970 03147 0051 +095 +048 069052 053 035 006 00
171000 1427N 05626W 6963 03156 0044 +099 +047 067052 052 036 006 00
171030 1426N 05625W 6967 03148 0046 +095 +053 068052 053 035 006 00
171100 1425N 05624W 6963 03153 0045 +095 +055 065053 054 035 006 03
171130 1424N 05623W 6970 03143 0041 +097 +055 064054 055 035 006 00
171200 1422N 05622W 6964 03151 0042 +096 +056 064052 054 035 006 00
171230 1421N 05621W 6965 03147 0040 +095 +072 068052 053 035 006 00
171300 1420N 05620W 6967 03146 0038 +095 +078 068051 052 035 006 00
171330 1419N 05619W 6972 03137 0049 +086 +069 065056 058 034 006 00
171400 1417N 05617W 6969 03142 0046 +088 +069 065055 058 035 008 00
171430 1416N 05616W 6963 03147 0047 +085 +077 065055 056 035 007 00
171500 1415N 05615W 6966 03143 0041 +089 +082 063052 053 034 008 00
171530 1414N 05614W 6972 03135 9990 +086 +999 058051 052 037 007 01
$$

Code: Select all

Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 16th day of the month at 17:13Z
Date: August 16, 2007
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last digit of aircraft registration number is 304)
Storm Number: 04
Storm Name: Dean (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 15
Time (Z) /    Coordinates /    Acft. Static Air Press. /    Acft. Geo. Hgt. /    Extrap. Sfc. Press. /    Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) /    Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind /    SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind /    SFMR Rain Rate
17:06:00   14.53N 56.62W   696.4 mb   3,164 m   1006.2 mb   From 66° (ENE) at 41 kts (47.1 mph)   41 kts (~ 47.1 mph)   33 kts   5 mm/hr
17:06:30   14.53N 56.60W   696.5 mb   3,162 m   1006.2 mb   From 69° (ENE) at 43 kts (49.4 mph)   44 kts (~ 50.6 mph)   33 kts   6 mm/hr
17:07:00   14.52N 56.58W   696.9 mb   3,156 m   1005.7 mb   From 66° (ENE) at 44 kts (50.6 mph)   44 kts (~ 50.6 mph)   34 kts   6 mm/hr
17:07:30   14.50N 56.55W   696.5 mb   3,159 m   1005.7 mb   From 65° (ENE) at 48 kts (55.2 mph)   50 kts (~ 57.5 mph)   35 kts   6 mm/hr
17:08:00   14.48N 56.53W   696.3 mb   3,159 m   1005.8 mb   From 64° (ENE) at 50 kts (57.5 mph)   50 kts (~ 57.5 mph)   35 kts   6 mm/hr
17:08:30   14.48N 56.52W   697.2 mb   3,148 m   1005.2 mb   From 66° (ENE) at 50 kts (57.5 mph)   51 kts (~ 58.6 mph)   36 kts   5 mm/hr
17:09:00   14.47N 56.48W   696.3 mb   3,158 m   1004.8 mb   From 65° (ENE) at 50 kts (57.5 mph)   50 kts (~ 57.5 mph)   35 kts   6 mm/hr
17:09:30   14.45N 56.47W   697.0 mb   3,147 m   1005.1 mb   From 69° (ENE) at 52 kts (59.8 mph)   53 kts (~ 60.9 mph)   35 kts   6 mm/hr
17:10:00   14.45N 56.43W   696.3 mb   3,156 m   1004.4 mb   From 67° (ENE) at 52 kts (59.8 mph)   52 kts (~ 59.8 mph)   36 kts   6 mm/hr
17:10:30   14.43N 56.42W   696.7 mb   3,148 m   1004.6 mb   From 68° (ENE) at 52 kts (59.8 mph)   53 kts (~ 60.9 mph)   35 kts   6 mm/hr
17:11:00   14.42N 56.40W   696.3 mb   3,153 m   1004.5 mb   From 65° (ENE) at 53 kts (60.9 mph)   54 kts (~ 62.1 mph)   35 kts*   6 mm/hr*
17:11:30   14.40N 56.38W   697.0 mb   3,143 m   1004.1 mb   From 64° (ENE) at 54 kts (62.1 mph)   55 kts (~ 63.2 mph)   35 kts   6 mm/hr
17:12:00   14.37N 56.37W   696.4 mb   3,151 m   1004.2 mb   From 64° (ENE) at 52 kts (59.8 mph)   54 kts (~ 62.1 mph)   35 kts   6 mm/hr
17:12:30   14.35N 56.35W   696.5 mb   3,147 m   1004.0 mb   From 68° (ENE) at 52 kts (59.8 mph)   53 kts (~ 60.9 mph)   35 kts   6 mm/hr
17:13:00   14.33N 56.33W   696.7 mb   3,146 m   1003.8 mb   From 68° (ENE) at 51 kts (58.6 mph)   52 kts (~ 59.8 mph)   35 kts   6 mm/hr
17:13:30   14.32N 56.32W   697.2 mb   3,137 m   1004.9 mb   From 65° (ENE) at 56 kts (64.4 mph)   58 kts (~ 66.7 mph)   34 kts   6 mm/hr
17:14:00   14.28N 56.28W   696.9 mb   3,142 m   1004.6 mb   From 65° (ENE) at 55 kts (63.2 mph)   58 kts (~ 66.7 mph)   35 kts   8 mm/hr
17:14:30   14.27N 56.27W   696.3 mb   3,147 m   1004.7 mb   From 65° (ENE) at 55 kts (63.2 mph)   56 kts (~ 64.4 mph)   35 kts   7 mm/hr
17:15:00   14.25N 56.25W   696.6 mb   3,143 m   1004.1 mb   From 63° (ENE) at 52 kts (59.8 mph)   53 kts (~ 60.9 mph)   34 kts   8 mm/hr
17:15:30   14.23N 56.23W   697.2 mb   3,135 m   -   From 58° (ENE) at 51 kts (58.6 mph)   52 kts (~ 59.8 mph)   37 kts   7 mm/hr
At 17:06:00Z (first observation), the observation was 224 miles (361 km) to the ENE (63°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
At 17:15:30Z (last observation), the observation was 240 miles (387 km) to the ENE (71°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.

Map this message:
http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/p ... .25c-56.23

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

A new ballgame seems to be developing. Glad the weekend is fast approaching. Its easier to stay up late and model watch then!

[Aric Dunn]

I disagree.. look at the loop again and there is a hiccup

nope i count 00z 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,..... 1545.. everytime

[skysummit]

Where are you all getting the 12z NOGAPS showing panhandle? Every NOGAPS link I has says Yucatan.

[baitism]

Well something is amiss. We all know storms of this strength do not reform their centers...

[chadtm80]

Have some things I need to get done, so if anyone wants to continue the decoding please do s

[Aric Dunn]

Well something is amiss. We all know storms of this strength do not reform their centers...

thats not true

on the center reform part..

[DESTRUCTION5]

Where are you all getting the 12z NOGAPS showing panhandle? Every NOGAPS link I has says Yucatan.

Seems to be a sharp contrast between Ivan site and Steve site..

[Steve]

LMAO. It's a glitch at the e-wall site at PSU. Apparently as the models come in, it overwrites the previous 12z run but leaves the future hours that aren't yet in as they were (as shown by a 120 at the Yuctan vs. 132 off the coast of FL 12 hours later but actually 12 hours prior).

Note to self: Wait until the e-wall is finished running and check EVERY FRAME for valid time before posting those links again.



Steve

[HUC]

http://www.meteo.gp/pro/donnees/radar/m ... 00_ppz.gif

First shawers related to Dean,from Martinica radar More to caome,as long that i can!!!

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

In case folks aren't checking the models page as well, there is significant shift in a few models now to the north.

***I would top of the gas tanks today asap... the gas prices are about to skyrocket!***

[skysummit]

Where are you all getting the 12z NOGAPS showing panhandle? Every NOGAPS link I has says Yucatan.

Seems to be a sharp contrast between Ivan site and Steve site..

Yea, but I haven't found one that shows panhandle..just Steve's pic.

[Starburst]

I will take over for a little while Chad

[baitism]

Well something is amiss. We all know storms of this strength do not reform their centers...

thats not true

Show me a cat1-cat2 storm that has....

[Steve]

It was an older run for T-132 which hadn't yet been overwritten. I'll go back and delete that one embedded picture so that no one freaks. Still don't remember seeing it yesterday though.

Steve

[Stormcenter]

I still think Dean doesn't go any further east than the TX/LA border.
The most likely scenario is a lower MX/TX landfall. Hey just my
two cents opinion as of right now.

[milankovitch]

Its a messup.. check the time lapse

I dont see any hicup the time starts out

2007-08-16 00:00 -- 2007-08-16 15:45

nothing wrong with the lapse ..

it may have been a IRC of some sort.. notice the WILMA animation.. the old center does the same fading thing..

Read the FAQ and Product description these animations are produced by putting a collection of images together. It describes the pulsations as likely artifacts as one image is merged into another.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... i/faq.html

[Extremeweatherguy]

yeah, I'm not seeing the panhandle either. Even Steve's link shows a track toward the Yucatan now.