CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[DESTRUCTION5]

Confusion runs amuck..

[Ivanhater]

It was an older run for T-132 which hadn't yet been overwritten. I'll go back and delete that one embedded picture so that no one freaks. Still don't remember seeing it yesterday though.

Steve

yeah I dont remember the nogaps that far north either which is why Im confused

[Aric Dunn]

Well something is amiss. We all know storms of this strength do not reform their centers...

thats not true

Show me a cat1-cat2 storm that has....

not in the same sense as a weak storm that reforms its center 40 miles to the north.. but IRC's it happens all the time

[Aric Dunn]

Its a messup.. check the time lapse

I dont see any hicup the time starts out

2007-08-16 00:00 -- 2007-08-16 15:45

nothing wrong with the lapse ..

it may have been a IRC of some sort.. notice the WILMA animation.. the old center does the same fading thing..

Read the FAQ and Product description these animations are produced by putting a collection of images together. It describes the pulsations as likely artifacts as one image is merged into another.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... i/faq.html

Cool thanks..

that probably would have been a smart thing to again.. i read that a long time ago...

[Regit]

In case folks aren't checking the models page as well, there is significant shift in a few models now to the north.

***I would top of the gas tanks today asap... the gas prices are about to skyrocket!***

It should be mentioned that there's no historical precedent for major increases in gas prices upon the threat of a hurricane. Any increase will be small an no larger than any other typical fluctuation.

For gas prices to soar a major hurricane would have to hit the gulf coast, knocking out major refineries (like happened after Katrina).

So no worries now about gasoline prices.

[baitism]

not in the same sense as a weak storm that reforms its center 40 miles to the north.. but IRC's it happens all the time

Well, yeah. I know ERC's happen. I meant center relocations. Which I thought was what the original poster meant.

[SouthFloridawx]

969
URNT15 KNHC 161723
AF304 0104A DEAN HDOB 16 20070816
171600 1412N 05613W 6965 03140 0030 +090 +090 059048 050 041 005 01
171630 1411N 05612W 6965 03135 0020 +097 +097 057048 049 046 007 00
171700 1410N 05611W 6968 03133 0020 +096 +096 056049 051 043 006 03
171730 1409N 05609W 6968 03129 0022 +092 +092 057049 052 045 006 00
171800 1408N 05608W 6967 03130 0020 +095 +083 052052 053 048 007 00
171830 1408N 05607W 6970 03125 0015 +100 +070 054052 053 047 007 00
171900 1407N 05605W 6964 03129 0009 +101 +081 052051 052 047 007 00
171930 1407N 05604W 6963 03129 0000 +106 +080 050053 053 046 007 00
172000 1406N 05602W 6969 03117 0004 +097 +091 053053 054 046 006 00
172030 1405N 05601W 6967 03119 0008 +094 +088 059049 051 046 006 00
172100 1405N 05559W 6967 03117 0009 +093 +081 063043 045 046 006 00
172130 1404N 05558W 6966 03117 0013 +084 +084 060043 045 047 006 01
172200 1404N 05556W 6966 03115 9990 +073 +999 061045 047 049 007 01
172230 1403N 05555W 6965 03113 0006 +087 +087 062046 047 049 007 01
172300 1402N 05554W 6967 03111 0005 +089 +088 063045 046 049 006 00
172330 1402N 05552W 6967 03108 9990 +082 +999 061043 043 049 007 01
172400 1401N 05551W 6964 03109 9990 +087 +999 059043 044 048 008 05
172430 1401N 05549W 6963 03107 0001 +087 +082 058043 044 048 008 00
172500 1400N 05548W 6967 03100 9992 +092 +070 057044 044 047 007 00
172530 1400N 05546W 6963 03100 9980 +099 +070 056045 047 046 007 00
$$

[Steve]

>>In case folks aren't checking the models page as well, there is significant shift in a few models now to the north.

UKMET does a little, but the NOGAPS presentation was some older run that hadn't been yet overwritten. I'm waiting on the 12z GFDL which probably will post within the hour.

Steve

[sau27]

iv been reading these posts for a few days but this is my first time writing.

Im wondering what causes these storms to explode in physical size. I remember katrina did it after it crossed florida.

are those conditions present with dean. Its not going to stay this compact forever will it

[WmE]

not in the same sense as a weak storm that reforms its center 40 miles to the north.. but IRC's it happens all the time

What's am IRC? Do you mean ERC?

[Diva]

It should be mentioned that there's no historical precedent for major increases in gas prices upon the threat of a hurricane. Any increase will be small an no larger than any other typical fluctuation.

For gas prices to soar a major hurricane would have to hit the gulf coast, knocking out major refineries (like happened after Katrina).

So no worries now about gasoline prices.

Tell that to all the retailers around here that raised their gas prices LAST NIGHT...they say because of the Gulf activity!

[Aric Dunn]

not in the same sense as a weak storm that reforms its center 40 miles to the north.. but IRC's it happens all the time

Well, yeah. I know ERC's happen. I meant center relocations. Which I thought was what the original poster meant.

stupid spell check ... IRC duh!! ERC lol should have noticed that

I get to typing fast and do spell check without checking myself// lol

[Starburst]

Code: Select all

Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 16th day of the month at 17:23Z
Date: August 16, 2007
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last digit of aircraft registration number is 304)
Storm Number: 04
Storm Name: Dean (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 16
 
Time (Z) /  Coordinates /  Acft. Static Air Press. /  Acft. Geo. Hgt. /  Extrap. Sfc. Press. /  Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) /  Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind /  SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind /  SFMR Rain Rate
17:16:00 14.20N 56.22W 696.5 mb 3,140 m 1003.0 mb From 59° (ENE) at 48 kts (55.2 mph) 50 kts (~ 57.5 mph) 41 kts 5 mm/hr
17:16:30 14.18N 56.20W 696.5 mb 3,135 m 1002.0 mb From 57° (ENE) at 48 kts (55.2 mph) 49 kts (~ 56.3 mph) 46 kts 7 mm/hr
17:17:00 14.17N 56.18W 696.8 mb 3,133 m 1002.0 mb From 56° (NE/ENE) at 49 kts (56.3 mph) 51 kts (~ 58.6 mph) 43 kts* 6 mm/hr*
17:17:30 14.15N 56.15W 696.8 mb 3,129 m 1002.2 mb From 57° (ENE) at 49 kts (56.3 mph) 52 kts (~ 59.8 mph) 45 kts 6 mm/hr
17:18:00 14.13N 56.13W 696.7 mb 3,130 m 1002.0 mb From 52° (NE) at 52 kts (59.8 mph) 53 kts (~ 60.9 mph) 48 kts 7 mm/hr
17:18:30 14.13N 56.12W 697.0 mb 3,125 m 1001.5 mb From 54° (NE) at 52 kts (59.8 mph) 53 kts (~ 60.9 mph) 47 kts 7 mm/hr
17:19:00 14.12N 56.08W 696.4 mb 3,129 m 1000.9 mb From 52° (NE) at 51 kts (58.6 mph) 52 kts (~ 59.8 mph) 47 kts 7 mm/hr
17:19:30 14.12N 56.07W 696.3 mb 3,129 m 1000.0 mb From 50° (NE) at 53 kts (60.9 mph) 53 kts (~ 60.9 mph) 46 kts 7 mm/hr
17:20:00 14.10N 56.03W 696.9 mb 3,117 m 1000.4 mb From 53° (NE) at 53 kts (60.9 mph) 54 kts (~ 62.1 mph) 46 kts 6 mm/hr
17:20:30 14.08N 56.02W 696.7 mb 3,119 m 1000.8 mb From 59° (ENE) at 49 kts (56.3 mph) 51 kts (~ 58.6 mph) 46 kts 6 mm/hr
17:21:00 14.08N 55.98W 696.7 mb 3,117 m 1000.9 mb From 63° (ENE) at 43 kts (49.4 mph) 45 kts (~ 51.7 mph) 46 kts 6 mm/hr
17:21:30 14.07N 55.97W 696.6 mb 3,117 m 1001.3 mb From 60° (ENE) at 43 kts (49.4 mph) 45 kts (~ 51.7 mph) 47 kts 6 mm/hr
17:22:00 14.07N 55.93W 696.6 mb 3,115 m - From 61° (ENE) at 45 kts (51.7 mph) 47 kts (~ 54.0 mph) 49 kts 7 mm/hr
17:22:30 14.05N 55.92W 696.5 mb 3,113 m 1000.6 mb From 62° (ENE) at 46 kts (52.9 mph) 47 kts (~ 54.0 mph) 49 kts 7 mm/hr
17:23:00 14.03N 55.90W 696.7 mb 3,111 m 1000.5 mb From 63° (ENE) at 45 kts (51.7 mph) 46 kts (~ 52.9 mph) 49 kts 6 mm/hr
17:23:30 14.03N 55.87W 696.7 mb 3,108 m - From 61° (ENE) at 43 kts (49.4 mph) 43 kts (~ 49.4 mph) 49 kts 7 mm/hr
17:24:00 14.02N 55.85W 696.4 mb 3,109 m - From 59° (ENE) at 43 kts (49.4 mph) 44 kts (~ 50.6 mph) 48 kts* 8 mm/hr*
17:24:30 14.02N 55.82W 696.3 mb 3,107 m 1000.1 mb From 58° (ENE) at 43 kts (49.4 mph) 44 kts (~ 50.6 mph) 48 kts 8 mm/hr
17:25:00 14.00N 55.80W 696.7 mb 3,100 m 999.2 mb From 57° (ENE) at 44 kts (50.6 mph) 44 kts (~ 50.6 mph) 47 kts 7 mm/hr
17:25:30 14.00N 55.77W 696.3 mb 3,100 m 998.0 mb From 56° (NE/ENE) at 45 kts (51.7 mph) 47 kts (~ 54.0 mph) 46 kts 7 mm/hr
At 17:16:00Z (first observation), the observation was 240 miles (387 km) to the ENE (71°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
At 17:25:30Z (last observation), the observation was 266 miles (428 km) to the ENE (76°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
 


 
Suspect values are noted by an asterisk (*).


Map this message:
http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/p ... .80c-55.77

[Aric Dunn]

not in the same sense as a weak storm that reforms its center 40 miles to the north.. but IRC's it happens all the time

Well, yeah. I know ERC's happen. I meant center relocations. Which I thought was what the original poster meant.

no not relocations ..

[vaffie]

Tell me if you agree, but the NHC track has always way outperformed the models, and they say it themselves why--it has to do with their heavy use of ensemble and consensus models. The consensus in the 12Z models seems to have moved to the right slightly. So I expect the NHC track to move to the right slightly for the 5 pm advisory, perhaps this time spending half as long over the Yucatan. Not good. Unless an upper low ends up over the Bahamas--like the GFDL is predicting--unlikely right now, the storm center, in my humble opinion is not going to make landfall east of New Orleans. A powerful hurricane with its northward jogs, especially at the western periphery of a ridge with a weakness over the central plains is, I doubt going to make landfall south of Tampico, Mexico. So, the areas of highest concern continue to be from Tampico to New Orleans. Points further south and east of those cities need to stay very vigilant however because this could change quickly, and it's moving very fast. Also, the center might not hit them, but they still might end up getting hit by devastating weather. So everyone in the Gulf, including of course Florida should be paying attention.

[cyclonic chronic]

iv been reading these posts for a few days but this is my first time writing.

Im wondering what causes these storms to explode in physical size. I remember katrina did it after it crossed florida.

are those conditions present with dean. Its not going to stay this compact forever will it

i would think little or no shear and nice, cozy, warm sst's. who knows, i think its kinda like the question, why does one wave form and not another under pretty much the same atmospheric conditions. JMO

[Regit]

It should be mentioned that there's no historical precedent for major increases in gas prices upon the threat of a hurricane. Any increase will be small an no larger than any other typical fluctuation.

For gas prices to soar a major hurricane would have to hit the gulf coast, knocking out major refineries (like happened after Katrina).

So no worries now about gasoline prices.

Tell that to all the retailers around here that raised their gas prices LAST NIGHT...they say because of the Gulf activity!

Well that's price gouging, not economics.

[bob rulz]

In case folks aren't checking the models page as well, there is significant shift in a few models now to the north.

***I would top of the gas tanks today asap... the gas prices are about to skyrocket!***

It should be mentioned that there's no historical precedent for major increases in gas prices upon the threat of a hurricane. Any increase will be small an no larger than any other typical fluctuation.

For gas prices to soar a major hurricane would have to hit the gulf coast, knocking out major refineries (like happened after Katrina).

So no worries now about gasoline prices.

Apparently gas prices in Texas went up about 10 cents in a few hours just because of Erin.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

In case folks aren't checking the models page as well, there is significant shift in a few models now to the north.

***I would top of the gas tanks today asap... the gas prices are about to skyrocket!***

It should be mentioned that there's no historical precedent for major increases in gas prices upon the threat of a hurricane. Any increase will be small an no larger than any other typical fluctuation.

For gas prices to soar a major hurricane would have to hit the gulf coast, knocking out major refineries (like happened after Katrina).

So no worries now about gasoline prices.

Well, I hate to disagree, but I disagree. Locally I saw an immediate jump of about 8 cents in one afternoon as soon as the models started pointing at NE texas for Katrina. We ended up up about 45 cents locally here once the storm had past.

[msbee]

HUC
I can't access the link. authorization required.

I have a web cam link here from Martinique also

http://www.meteo.gp/pelee/latest.jpg

stay safe in Guadeloupe
what do you expect there?