CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[senorpepr]

URNT12 KNHC 161811
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007
A. 16/17:33:00Z
B. 13 deg 49 min N
055 deg 27 min W
C. NA mb 2877 m
D. 78 kt
E. 323 deg 005 nm
F. 044 deg 075 kt
G. 315 deg 006 nm
H. 974 mb
I. 14 C/ 3051 m
J. 19 C/ 3069 m
K. 7 C/ NA
L. OPEN W
M. E350/16/10
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF304 0104A DEAN OB 05
MAX FL WIND 75 KT NW QUAD 17:30:40 Z
MAX FL TEMP 21 C, 320 / 6NM

[Scorpion]

Outflow looks great... I said 110 kt for the islands and it looks about right

[Brent]

MAGNIFICENT!!!

Amazing, it has improved dramatically just from a few hours ago. A true monster in the making... water only gets warmer and deeper from here.

[canegrl04]

WRF says 167 kt winds

For that to happen,Dean will have to miss the Yucatan altogether on his way into the Gulf.Thats the only plausible way

[vaffie]

I know, and I wasn't flaming if it came across that way. I was just saying that I still do not believe this far out (1 wk roughly) that we have seen the last of the track changes. East or West.

You're right. A lot will change. It's silly to draw a line like I did. They're imaginary points. But I drew them anyway. The fact is that, for now, SE Texas/SW Louisiana are in the crosshairs.

[Wx_Warrior]

Crosshairs with the latest GFDL model. Careful what you say.

[Mattie]

Blown away - just scroll up - see page 85 of the posts - there are several maps.

[Extremeweatherguy]

the general trend (based on the recent model plots) seems to be for a hit on or near the yucatan and then a turn WNW or NW toward TX or western LA.

[EyELeSs1]

interesting pressure not as low as we thought (although lower than estimated @ 11am) and winds havn't quite caught up yet

looks like an expansion on the west side which may mean the west eyewall may be trying to close off now... lets see

[Aric Dunn]

outer rain bands beginning to hit barbados ..!!

downhill from here




loop
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... SAIC2.html

[superdeluxe]

Can anyone answer why this is WCS?

[vacanechaser]

for those who may not be looking at the thread, 974mb recon vortex message...





Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[SouthFloridawx]

167
WHXX01 KWBC 161818
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1818 UTC THU AUG 16 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE DEAN (AL042007) 20070816 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070816 1800 070817 0600 070817 1800 070818 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.8N 55.5W 14.7N 61.0W 15.6N 65.9W 15.9N 70.0W
BAMD 13.8N 55.5W 14.6N 59.1W 15.6N 62.5W 16.4N 65.9W
BAMM 13.8N 55.5W 14.6N 59.7W 15.4N 63.7W 16.0N 67.3W
LBAR 13.8N 55.5W 14.3N 59.5W 15.0N 63.9W 15.6N 68.0W
SHIP 80KTS 89KTS 100KTS 106KTS
DSHP 80KTS 89KTS 100KTS 106KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070818 1800 070819 1800 070820 1800 070821 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.1N 73.4W 16.4N 79.2W 18.0N 84.6W 20.6N 89.6W
BAMD 17.1N 69.2W 18.2N 76.0W 20.0N 83.5W 22.6N 90.7W
BAMM 16.6N 70.7W 17.8N 77.7W 19.3N 85.1W 20.9N 91.3W
LBAR 16.7N 71.9W 17.5N 78.3W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 107KTS 107KTS 114KTS 112KTS
DSHP 107KTS 107KTS 114KTS 74KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.8N LONCUR = 55.5W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 21KT
LATM12 = 13.2N LONM12 = 51.3W DIRM12 = 278DEG SPDM12 = 20KT
LATM24 = 12.8N LONM24 = 47.0W
WNDCUR = 80KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 65KT
CENPRS = 974MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 120NM RD34SE = 75NM RD34SW = 60NM RD34NW = 130NM

[Houstonia]

Hou/Gal has set up it's bear watch!!!



Previous discussion... /issued 357 am CDT Thursday Aug 16 2007/
significant flooding problems a good bet for southwestern zones of southeast Texas
today with the heavy rain potential over a wider area tonight on
into tomorrow. Erin still set to move onshore later this morning
near crp with the bulk of the precipitation going inland between gls/crp.
Estimated rainfall totals of 3-6" with isolated 10" amounts look
reasonable at this time. Models slowly move this system off to west/SW with
time...but the deeply tropical airmass/high precipitable waters (from 2.1"-2.4")
to linger over the area through Saturday. As such will keep high
probability of precipitation in the grids for this timeperiod. And then...with regard to
the flash flood advisory currently in effect over the SW counties...this may need
to be extended (beyond its 00z expiration) and expanded (for the
southern half of the cwa) should the bands fill in as prognosticated. So far
radar loops are indicating this trend. Precipitation forecasts going to a
more diurnal type pattern for the weekend as the upper ridge re-
establishes itself over the lower MS valley and a weak east/southeasterly ll
flow prevails. Long range forecasts still trying to resolve the path
of Dean but there are hints that a TUTT low will be moving under
the high (slightly north/ahead of dean) across the Gulf on/about
this same time. A bear watch remains in place. 41

[hazmat]

Superdeluxe...don't feel bad I never get answered either.
Here goes WCS...very strong hurricane in the Gulf...affecting the rigs...and possibly impacting the Louisina coast.

[canegrl04]

Dean is looking awesome on sat imagery Too bad hes going to hurt alot of people

[windstorm99]

Everyone from the keys to the entire gulf needs to pay close attention to dean's developments in the coming days.

It will be interesting to see if the models keep trending north.

[Bluefrog]

There are probably 2 worst case scenerios: #1: Those of us who got hit by Katrina (LA/MS/AL) almost 2 years ago ... we haven't recovered and can't handle a tropical storm let alone at CAT 1-5 storm AGAIN. #2: Texas is soaked and a MAJOR hurricane would cause Katrina damage on top of all the flooding damage they have already had ... uprooted trees in the slightest wind etc........

[cheezyWXguy]

Wow, I cant believe this. A 9mb drop in 3 hours, as im pretty sure the 11am said 979. This thing is bombing, im pretty sure with a pressure drop like that!

[k4sdi]

Does anyone have the link for the google earth file? Thanks!