CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[canegrl04]

There are probably 2 worst case scenerios: #1: Those of us who got hit by Katrina (LA/MS/AL) almost 2 years ago ... we haven't recovered and can't handle a tropical storm let alone at CAT 1-5 storm AGAIN. #2: Texas is soaked and a MAJOR hurricane would cause Katrina damage on top of all the flooding damage they have already had ... uprooted trees in the slightest wind etc........

The oil refining area of the south TX coast would be devastated by a major hurricanedirect hit .It would have a huge impact on the US economy as well

[Jagno]

the general trend (based on the recent model plots) seems to be for a hit on or near the yucatan and then a turn WNW or NW toward TX or western LA.

We are still very much recovering from Rita on the TX/LA coast. I am pleased to say though that as of this morning alot of folks are filling up on fuel, butane and other items you would consider in an emergency and not waiting until "dooms day".

[wxmann_91]

OK good now i know it's not just me and if the models keep moveing ever so slightly to the north then florida could bein the woods still but with a slight chance!!!!!

Please. No chance for Florida on this solid model/ridge consensus.

Wobble west. Flatter west veer. Should correct back into forecast track. Almost guarantees strong side for Martinique.

Never say never in the weather world. Things happen and stuff changes. Remember Ernesto last year? "He'll never hit Florida."

Well, Ernesto was a different situation. At this time Ernie was still weak, hindered by an ULL. The key was that the center reformed to the north when it got near Hispaniola. Since Dean is so organized, unpredictable center reformations seem very unlikely at this time. These "monsters" tend to be better-modeled and more predictable.

[SouthFloridawx]

That ridge is getting the old squeeze play by a couple of ULL's.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_wv_ls_0.html

[Derek Ortt]

the speed of motion is included in the maximum sustained winds

That said, this could be as intense as Ivan and Allen when it moves through. Major difference between Ivan and this could be the population of Martinique. Far more people live in the French department than on Grenada

[senorpepr]

I edited the above message to correct the surface line.

[canegrl04]

I know I may be over-sensitive here...but adjectives like "great" "improving" and "awesome" are a little hard for those of us in the islands to stomach at the moment, regardless of the power and intensity and perfection of a storm moving into a high mode. Can the thrill of watching this be couched in a bit more thoughtful terms? And we will do the same for CONUS when it applies (though, I can't think of any of the island posters who use these terms, for obvious, or maybe not so obvious reasons).

Sometimes we weather junkies tend to get a bit too excited when a storm really blows up. All my thoughts and prayers to you and the others in the islands, stay safe!

Ditto here.My apologies

[tracyswfla]

Remember Ernesto last year? "He'll never hit Florida."

While generally true, Ernesto didn't have a rock solid ridge guiding him like we see here.

Same thing for Charley in 2004. I don't trust any storm until it it is north of me.

[k4sdi]

Found it in the other thread, sorry guys to interrupt this one.

[Aric Dunn]

outflow next 24 to 30 hours

its a hurricanes WET DREAM LOL

[hurricanefloyd5]

I have a question about the ridge??? I keep hearing about two things that can happen and not sure why they say that but the local weather man said 1 the storm could come to florida because the ridges moves/shrinks and 2 he gives the most likely track so why am I keep hearing about this slight chance of florida getting something from this for?????

[Tenspeed]

Wobble west. Flatter west veer. Should correct back into forecast track. Almost guarantees strong side for Martinique.

OK good now i know it's not just me and if the models keep moveing ever so slightly to the north then florida could bein the woods still but with a slight chance!!!!!

Please. No chance for Florida on this solid model/ridge consensus.

Agreed...I think Louisiana is a possibility though.

I pray that it is not a possibility. Louisiana does not want this storm.

[SouthFloridawx]

Don't worry about it...

[Sabanic]

Yes,lets take a break from the 12z runs and focus tonight on the 00z guidance that will have the data ingested from the gulfstream jet.

I don't think they will change much...previous storms have proven that..

Huh?

[Aric Dunn]

hmmm... HWRF FORCAST 887mb entering into the Gulf

[tolakram]

Loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-bd.html

Latest image:


Looks like the eyewall is about to solidify. I'd say Dean is not quite as strong as thought but is ready to go now.

[wxmann_91]

Looks like Katrina II.

Umm, no, this would make Katrina look like a fart in the wind.

Please, let's not start hype.

It's one model run. Things can and will change. Both the HWRF and GFDL have been inconsistent as of late. Suspect later runs will bring it back down to peaking at Cat 2 or something, which would be likely wrong as well.

[flwxwatcher]

No need to be alarmist yet. This is just one run out of dozens (different models, different times) -- the GFDL has also shown a weak hurricane in a few days (a couple of runs ago, IIRC). Yes, the latest runs SHOULD be more accurate, but you need to wait until we see 2-3-4 consecutive model runs showing that solution before you should put much confidence in it. I think all we should say at this time is that Dean will likely be near western Cuba and/or the Yucatan in a few days. Anything beyond that is a little too speculative for me. Dean could run into Honduras, or it could cross Cuba and enter the Gulf -- we just don't know. Sticking with the consensus is the most prudent course of action at this time.

Agreed and good points. While the HWRF and the GFDL have come further North we have to see if future runs keep this trend and if other Models join this trend. One thing is becoming apparent though a Major Hurricane will be in the NW Caribbean down the road.

[Stormcenter]

Oh believe me it will change.

[Wx_Warrior]

once in the GOM, right now there's no lock solid ridge, hence the models Tamipco-Sabine Pass