CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[PTrackerLA]

The latest models are starting to concern me, especially if Dean missed the Yucatan completely, we're going to have an all out monster threatening Texas or maybe even LA.

[windstorm99]

I would think the HWRF is over doing things a bit cause if not we are talking about a storm just about as strong as wilma at her peak.

[hurricanefloyd5]

now that is very very scary aric... that reminds me of Hurricane Wilma at her strongest peak this Mean Dean could become a Cat.5 aric????

[DESTRUCTION5]

Yes,lets take a break from the 12z runs and focus tonight on the 00z guidance that will have the data ingested from the gulfstream jet.

I don't think they will change much...previous storms have proven that..

Huh?

I don't know the facts on it but just by observation last year they were more trouble than they were worth..Inputed not inputed..Very confusing and the shifts in tracks were minimal, and yes i meant in the long run..

[caribepr]

I know I may be over-sensitive here...but adjectives like "great" "improving" and "awesome" are a little hard for those of us in the islands to stomach at the moment, regardless of the power and intensity and perfection of a storm moving into a high mode. Can the thrill of watching this be couched in a bit more thoughtful terms? And we will do the same for CONUS when it applies (though, I can't think of any of the island posters who use these terms, for obvious, or maybe not so obvious reasons).

Dear friend,
I hope you and your neighbors are preparing to protect yourselves from the awesome power of these storms.
These adjectives are appropriate to express the deep respect and awe we have for nature's power.
The Earth's geological activity should humble us all. we, mere mortals, should appreciate the forces that give and take life, for without such processes, we would not exist.

So please, see what beauty and goodness you can, and plan/prepare to take care of yourself in the case that you should have to experience it, first hand.

We see the beauty and goodness every day and night of our lives. That's one of the reasons we live on islands. Check your PM.

[Sabanic]

:eek: The latest models are starting to concern me, especially if Dean missed the Yucatan completely, we're going to have an all out monster threatening Texas or maybe even LA.

Or other points. . . .

Still a week away, and MANY things can change, and do so several more times. Southern Texas all the way to Florida STILL NEED to monitor closely.

[teal61]

HWRF=wow GFDL is impressive also and both of their tracks suck.

[windstorm99]

now that is very very scary aric... that reminds me of Hurricane Wilma at her strongest peak this Mean Dean could become a Cat.5 aric????

Dean has a good shot at at solid cat4 or even a cat5 once in the western caribbean.

Very high heat content in the area.

[EyELeSs1]

is anyone posting the obs??

[canegrl04]

:eek: The latest models are starting to concern me, especially if Dean missed the Yucatan completely, we're going to have an all out monster threatening Texas or maybe even LA.

Lets hope that doesn't happen. If Dean misses the Yucatan,he could likely become cat 5 in GOM

[SouthFloridawx]

no obs since 1430

[PTrackerLA]

:eek: The latest models are starting to concern me, especially if Dean missed the Yucatan completely, we're going to have an all out monster threatening Texas or maybe even LA.

Or other points. . . .

Still a week away, and MANY things can change, and do so several more times. Southern Texas all the way to Florida STILL NEED to monitor closely.

Yeah the whole gulf coast should be watching!

[jasons2k]

If it were JUST the GFDL or HWRF I'd say no worries, it's just one model. With both models running Cat. 5s into the GOM I'd be lying if I said I wasn't concerned........JMO

[Wx_Warrior]

I'm sending the Yucatan a special care package...Help us out Yucsters!

[HURAKAN]

No one needs to get mad but, IT LOOKS SO COOL!!!

sorry!

[cycloneye]

I'm sending the Yucatan a special care package...Help us out Yucsters!

There is nothing to celebrate here.

[SouthFloridawx]

That is freaking cool looking...

[JonathanBelles]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Advisory 0816A07

Today Tropical Storm Dean has strengthened to a Category 1 hurricane and is now on the verge of Category 2 status. Tropical Storm Erin has now dissipated and I will not be doing a forecast on her.



Southwestern North Atlantic...Category 1 Hurricane Dean. Dean is still quickly moving W and intensifying. Recon is flying through Dean and will likely find a Category 2 hurricane. I predict landfall in St. Lucia tomorrow late morning. From there it will continue towards Jamaica on Sunday as a Category 3. From there it may near the Cayman islands on Monday and the northern most tip of the Yucatan on Tuesday morning. From there it may either go towards Houston or points southward. At this point I think landfall may be very close or just south of Gavelston. This is likely to change. Hurricane warnings are out for the middle Lesser Antilles and Hurricane Watches are up for areas north of the warning. Those in these warnings/watches should expect very strong winds and a lot of rain in the next 24 hours. Tropical Storm Warnings are out for the northernmost and southernmost islands of the Lesser Antilles. Those in these areas should expect high winds and a lot of rain from Dean. All those in the Caribbean and Texas should be preparing for Hurricane Dean. Those in LA, MS, AL, and Fl should also be watching Dean for any changes and may want to prepare.

Possibility of hurricane development in the next 3 days:Hurricane Dean active
US threat of Tropical development in next 24 hours: ongoing from Erin

Amateur Forecaster Jonathan-Fact789

[canegrl04]

I would think the HWRF is over doing things a bit cause if not we are talking about a storm just about as strong as wilma at her peak.

One model is forecasting 167kts,which would translate 175-180mph.I don't know if this is the one

[Tenspeed]

Huricanes always look cool, almost perfect. So beautiful and powerful leaving behind a wake of destruction.