Moderator: S2k Moderators
Bill Kamal wrote:Hey guys, this is my first post. My thoughts and prayers go out to any of you in the path of this storm. I guess we can only hope that by some miracle, this storm weakens considerably before hitting any landmasses or causing loss of life.
Yea i hope it's on that 500 High building back west along the Gulf coast.PTrackerLA wrote:KFDM, do you think the GFDL is on to something?
RL3AO wrote:The question is whether or not it will rapidly intensify tonight.
http://www.accuweather.com/world-forecast-details.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&locCode=NAM|MX|MX023|CANCUN&metric=1&fday=6
windstorm99 wrote:Here is a very interesting read i found from another pro-met on another forum.
Lots of talk on the evolution of the high, the Cut off low, and other features that may affect Dean. In looking at the current models, I also share concern that the models may be making the overall atmosheric dynamics too straight forward. With respect to the GFDL, this is one the most reliable hurricane forecasting models and this model always gets very heavy weigh in on forcast tracks. With that said, I think last nights GFDL was weakening Dean during the forecast period as it was seeing a system that would head into the Cutoff low and experience shear. As for todays model runs so far, the GFDL seems to have recognized that Dean is more formidable than the weaker tropical counterparts. As a result, the GFDL now sees an interaction with the cutoff low that moves it NWward, versus lasts nights representation that moved Dean under the cutoff and into a sheared environment.
Now, back to the Upper Low, the high pressure ridge and possible steering consequences. I'm gonna dive into the Water Vapor here, and I'donly like to base my interpertations on how the steering flow may change over the next 24 hours. Tomorrow, I will likely post a similar post looking at the next 24 hour period.
The cutoff low does not appear to be weakening, it is moving to the west very slowly,but probably not as fast as one would expect based on the models...This could be an implication, since Dean is making some headway on the cutoff low.
- There is indeed a trough affiliated with the cutoff low, and the trough does extend pretty far into the Carribean.
- True, the Ridge of High Pressure is moving westward and placing some pressure on the southern extent of the Cut-off low/trough. However, I am somewhat concerned about the cutoff low that is also moving westward and centered around around 30N, 46W. The reason for concern is that the interaction of the Bahama's low and this low may change the orientation of the ridge...instead of the ridge being oriented E-W as forcasts indicate, the ridge may become oriented in a N-S direction. This may hinder the westward progress of the Bahama's low in the coming day or so. It may also hinder the continued westward advancement of the ridge that the models want to depict.
- Finally, I notice a weak (albiet Small) upper level low trying to form ahead of Dean along the South American Coast. (Around 10N and 62.5W). This would have little impact on Dean from a shearing prospective...But as this kink in the upper level winds continues to prog westward, it will be curious to see if this links up with the Bahama's Cutoff Low and increases the southerly flow.
- AT this point, the jet stream looks fairly zonal...no real troughs or ridges...so nothing to really move the high over the Missippi Valley/Georgia area too much (considering the ULL over the Bahama's). However, in looking downstream, the ridge over the Miss. Valley/GA extends into the Northern Gulf and western Gulf States. So even though the Atlantic Ridge is pushing on the Baham's Low from the east, the High over the Southeast is pushing on the Cutoff low from the west. Talk about mother nature's power play...
In sum, I do not expect the upper level low over the Bahama's to make as much westward progess as was expected during the next 24 hours and the bottom line is this...Dean is making faster forward progress to the west than the Baham's low. Dean and it's anticipated 200MB ridge will push back on the ULL when they get a little closer to one another, but if the Upper Low does not fade away in the next 72 hours, I would not be surprised to see the models indact a more northerly route with time. That Gulfstream Jet Data is gonna be very important to the upcoming forecasts. Mean time...In another 24 hours...it will be interesting to look again and post on what is expected through Saturday...
Wx_Warrior wrote:No 1 wants to believe the EURO because it fails to hit MEX, that's what is so sad...
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 44 guests
