CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Brent]

I wonder how NHC got their "estimate" of 85kts for the winds. I didn't see any recon obs today that supported that estimate.

I think that's just it, there was a huge blackout from recon today. They definitely saw something we didn't. The pressure fluctuations was bizarre though.

[jaxfladude]

Why does Hurricane Dean not have a visible "eye" of this reply....or is it too small to be seen by Satellites or just covered up?

[Blown Away]

ONE island is gonna get nailed (unfortunately), that is all. The storm's hurricane windfield is 30 miles wide at most, about the same as Charley's. People here get the misconception that all the Antilles are gonna take it on the chin, and they are not, not at all. Someplace will be unlucky, but 40 miles to the north and south will fine. Not to mention, it's foward speed. The duration of HF winds will be short lived. Dean is coming in almost perpendicular to the chain, another plus allowing less islands to be impacted. No big deal, everyone will be fine.

Cat 2-3 winds for less than 30 minutes at 23mph. It will be one hell of a half hour.

[Innotech]

Rita made a hit just west of Cameron, and wiped it out. It also heavily damaged Beaumont and Deridder. So it was that general area where it hit. West of Lake charles.

[Thunder44]

I wonder how NHC got their "estimate" of 85kts for the winds. I didn't see any recon obs today that supported that estimate.

where did you see recon obs? i only saw one pass listed in the thread below

Those are the only ones I saw. I just got home from work. I guess there are some missing.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I don't like that AEMN scenario. It would place SE Texas on the dirty side of this storm for 24+ hours and we would be battered by high winds and heavy rainfall for a long time. That is something we definitely DO NOT need right now.

BTW: The 00z BAM models have shifted north a bit...not a good sign.

[shelby]

[quote="southerngale
I think you misread the posts. You (Houston) did get spared. But not all of SE TX did, which was KatDaddy's original reference ("all of us SE TX posters"). It was meant as a little joke to my friend, KatDaddy, who truly does know what all of us went through over here during Rita, but thanks for making my point. lol[/quote]

Sorry - I guess that i did. I was not trying to underplay what happened because I saw the damage after Rita.

[Aric Dunn]

Talkin Tropics Show with MIke Watkins starting after the music
its going to be good ... ask questions in the thread with its title viewtopic.php?f=59&t=97130

[artist]

hey abajan - thanks for posting the links to the tv and radio station.
Glad to know things are calm so far. I am thinking about all of you in the islands and praying it zips through with very minimal effects.

By the way - the radio station on the cbc tv site is really good.

[jaxfladude]

ONE island is gonna get nailed (unfortunately), that is all. The storm's hurricane windfield is 30 miles wide at most, about the same as Charley's. People here get the misconception that all the Antilles are gonna take it on the chin, and they are not, not at all. Someplace will be unlucky, but 40 miles to the north and south will fine. Not to mention, it's foward speed. The duration of HF winds will be short lived. Dean is coming in almost perpendicular to the chain, another plus allowing less islands to be impacted. No big deal, everyone will be fine.

Cat 2-3 winds for less than 30 minutes at 23mph. It will be one hell of a half hour.

Hurricane Charley:

[MusicCityMan]

I'm not a fan of the 1 outlier lol.. It shows a much sharper and apparent faster turn..

All of the GOM coast needs 2 pay attention

[Wx_Warrior]

Never been a big fan of BAMM but it's something to look at, that's for sure.

[Brent]

What is the AEMN? Don't hear much about it...

Interestingly the GFDL and the UKMET also show a NW turn towards TX.

The "1 outlier" is a climo model. I REALLY wish they'd get rid of it...

[Scorpion]

WRF 897 mb hit on Cozumel

[Downdraft]

What, if anything, would make Dean slow down?

The mountains of the Dominican Republic have shredded more than one cane. Anyone remember Debbie? Unfortunately, that's not going to happen here.

[windstorm99]

Models look a good agreement of deans path....

[KatDaddy]

You are right SG. I should have said the Houston-Galveston area to make my statement more clear. Portions of SE TX were hit very hard with Rita. Actually just 30 miles E out of downtown had a rough time as well as the other side of Galveston Bay. Houston-Galveston came as close as you can get before real damage starts to occur. We were on the razors edge.

[caribepr]

ONE island is gonna get nailed (unfortunately), that is all. The storm's hurricane windfield is 30 miles wide at most, about the same as Charley's. People here get the misconception that all the Antilles are gonna take it on the chin, and they are not, not at all. Someplace will be unlucky, but 40 miles to the north and south will fine. Not to mention, it's foward speed. The duration of HF winds will be short lived. Dean is coming in almost perpendicular to the chain, another plus allowing less islands to be impacted. No big deal, everyone will be fine.

Well...according to San Juan, you are not quite correct...

...HURRICANE DEAN STRENGTHENING AND RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE LESSER
ANTILLES...
...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO...

...NEW INFORMATION...
HURRICANE DEAN WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT APPROACHES THE
LESSER ANTILLES AND ITS TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND RADIUS HAS
EXPANDED AS TO BE A CONCERN TO THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO
RICO FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY.

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT IS FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND PUERTO RICO. A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH AND A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH AND EAST COASTS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS... CULEBRA AND VIEQUES AND PUERTO RICO.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 500 PM AST...HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH
...LONGITUDE 56.5 WEST...OR ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAINT CROIX
OR ABOUT 640 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ST THOMAS OR ABOUT 710 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN. DEAN WAS MOVING WESTWARD AT NEAR 23 MPH...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA IN 36 HOURS OR LESS. RESIDENTS OF THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MAKE PREPARATIONS FOR
POSSIBLE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BEGINNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
LASTING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS EVENT WILL IMPACT MARINE
INTERESTS SIGNIFICANTLY AS STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS AND HIGH SURF
AFFECT THE COASTAL AREAS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD NOT VENTURE FAR FROM
PORT.

...WINDS...
CURRENTLY THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND 150 MILES FROM THE
CENTER OF DEAN. AT THIS TIME THE SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG THE CARIBBEAN WATERS JUST SOUTH
OF SAINT CROIX AND PUERTO RICO`S SOUTH COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY MORNING OVER
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS REACHING 20 TO 25 MPH OVERLAND FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH STRONGER GUSTS OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN. BASED ON THE
LATEST FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF DEAN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN SOUTH
OF SAINT CROIX AND PUERTO RICO FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. ALL
LOCAL INTERESTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AS ANY
ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN THE INTENSITY AND OR A SLIGHT CHANGE IN ITS
TRACK TO THE NORTH COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.

...INLAND FLOODING...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHWESTERN FRINGES
OF HURRICANE DEAN SHOULD BEGIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND OVER VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE
EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE
CENTER OF DEAN PASSES SOUTH OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO
RICO ON ITS FORECAST TRACK FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF THREE TO FIVE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF SEVEN
INCHES IN THE INTERIOR SECTORS. FLASH FLOODS OR MUDSLIDES ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY.

...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS...
SEAS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS AND ATLANTIC
WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY REACH 10 TO 12 FEET AS
HURRICANE DEAN PASSES. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD PLAN TO RETURN TO SAFE
HARBOR FRIDAY MORNING AND PLAN TO REMAIN IN PORT THROUGH SATURDAY.
MARINERS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA ARE URGED TO SECURE THEIR
VESSELS OR MOVE THEM TO SAFE HARBOR ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LOCAL
CARIBBEAN WATERS.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 1145 PM AST BY
YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST IN SAN JUAN.

[Sambucol]

isn't baytown EAST of houston?????

Yes, Baytown is east of Houston.

[Cape Verde]

Looks like Cancun might as well order the next load of beach sand to replace the current fake beach.