CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[pojo]

So no data with the 0z 2nite?

He is talking about the actual recon into Dean this afternoon not the Gulfstream sampling outside the storm.

SHE (me) is talking about 5304 (AF) aircraft not NOAA9.

[Extremecane]

[A1A]

Can we cut the non Dean talk please? I'm having trouble finding any Dean info in all the other talk.

Agree. Please, no one needs to get offended, but I would ask the moderators, if possible, to create another thread which discusses the preparations in the US for the possible approach of Dean so we can focus to what is happening with the storm.

I appreciate very much the local stories of preparation. Can we please not try to be so narrow?

[deltadog03]

Thing is...not many models, that I can tell, are moving dean this fastly either.

[TampaFl]

WV Loop of elongated ULL east of Florida.



http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

[deltadog03]

Storm2k disclaimer: The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.





Shot at 2007-08-16

[CronkPSU]

A look at Hurricane Dean from a different angle:

GOES IR at 01:15Z Tonight:

don't like that angle...makes it look way too close and headed right at florida!!!

[Innotech]

that is a very healthy looking hurricane.

very impressive (and sorry to say but also beautiful)

[Emmett_Brown]

I agree completely stratosphere. I think the speed of Dean may be the fly in the ointment. It could allow Dean to catch up with the ULL near the Yucatan and possibly move the storm in a more WNW or NW direction. We will just have to wait and see.

I agree... but there could be another fly... This is just conjecture from a mad scientist, but take a look at the trough coming down from Canada in this water vapor shot:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

Any chance that this upper trough (midwest) and upper low (Bahamas) could interact in such a way (merge?) as to deepen the trough coming down from the north, or at least slow the low's westward progression? It just seems so crowded in the upper atmosphere to the West of Dean at the moment...

Based on the model forecasts, we are to expect:
1. The trough in the Great Lakes to quickly clear the area
2. The ULL to speed W to Texas by Sunday
3. The entire Tutt in the Carribean to be replaced by an upper level high

Seems like a lot has to happen really soon. This much movement might be more entertaining to watch than Dean...

[Extremeweatherguy]

Storm2k disclaimer: The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I am just going to do a simple prediction based on percentages for right now...

My prediction of maximum intensity:

Cat. 2 - 15%

Cat. 3 - 20%

Cat. 4 - 45%

Cat. 5 - 20%

My prediction for *final* landfall point:

Mexico - 20%

Texas - 50%

Louisiana - 20%

Somewhere else - 10%

I might do a more complete forecast sometime over the next few days. Stay tuned..

[CronkPSU]

so how much data will the 0z models have considering most of the recon numbers were lost? just the gulfstream's?

[jasons2k]

Here is the latest from Jeff Lindner (see analysis forum):

Dean was ignored today due to ongoing flood issues in Harris County.

Very dangerous hurricane forecasted into the Gulf of Mexico early next week.

Residents along the NW and W Gulf of Mexico should review hurricane preparedness procedures and be prepared to enact these plans late this weekend or early next week.

State of TX EOC will begin H-120 count down at noon Friday for fuel transport to evac zones and sweeping of evac routes. Local EOC’s and will begin local initiation of hurricane procedures plans at noon Friday.

Discussion:

Category 2 hurricane racing toward the Windward Islands with 100mph winds. Dean looks like a classic developing hurricane this evening with deep cold cloud tops over the center with an eye peaking through at times. Recon. reported a central pressure of 974mb this afternoon.

Track:

Forecast track is clustered along a due west track through the Caribbean with Dean reaching the western Caribbean late this weekend as a powerful cat 4/5 hurricane capable of catastrophic damage. GFDL continues to be a northern outlier taking the hurricane toward the middle/upper TX coast on its 18Z run. GFS and other models are cluster southward along the TX coast and N Mexico coast…although GFS ensembles are showing more of a northerly track. Keys to the final track will be weakness over TX from Erin and TUTT forecast to move westward across the Gulf this weekend. The weaker the ridge over TX the more northerly the turn. Small intense hurricanes like Dean want to turn northward and bump the ridge and attempt to find a weakness…if one is there it will want to turn into it. Remember Rita was forecast to go into Mexico at Day 5 so no one within the error cone should disregard the potential impact of this hurricane.

Intensity:

The intensity guidance is down right troubling. GFDL shows a strong cat 5 (170 + mph) plowing across the Gulf…geez. See no reason why cat 4 intensity will not be reached in the Caribbean and maintained through landfall on the Yucatan…may see cat 5. Given excellent upper level outflow and high ocean heat content Dean will become a very dangerous hurricane. Will have to see how Dean’s inner structure is disrupted over the Yucatan although the fast forward motion may not allow for much weakening. All guidance brings Dean toward the western Gulf as a major hurricane…cat 3 or higher and I see no reason to go against this thinking.

Preparations:

Coastal residents along the Gulf coast need to frequently check on the progress of Dean this weekend.

Keep gas tanks filled above 3/4ths of a tank at all times to help ease a rush on gas supplies early next week if an evacuation is called for.

Residents in coastal evacuation zones should be prepared for possible evacuation orders as early as Monday morning…due to the fast forward motion the prep. Window is going to close very quickly and critical decisions related to evacuation cannot wait until the hurricane is in the Gulf.

Employers should notify hurricane ride out teams before the close of business on Friday so they can prepare over the weekend.

[Emmett_Brown]

TS conditions likely for the northern islands. Dean is really expanding in size and likely will grow to maybe Gilbert's size

Hi Derek,

Gilbert is one of my favorites. As I remember, his wind field to the north caused near TS conditions at Key West. When you say Gilbert's size, are you talking that really big fat version of Gilbert when he was in the NW Carribean?

[flwxwatcher]

That ULL is progged by the latest GFS run to hardly move the first 24 Hours and by 48 Hours start moving but still be near the Keys. By 72 Hours the GFS starts to boot the ULL Westward quicker and by 96 hours has the ULL off the SE Texas Coast. Time will tell.

[tolakram]

I'm really having a hard time figuring Dean out. I expected to see a much more organized core. This looks strong and violent, but not very organized. Are these odd pulses indicative of an organizing storm, or one that is having problems organizing?

[jasons2k]

RE: the ULL --

The placement of Dean will be on the backside of the ULL. This means that the ULL will be feeding moisture northward ahead of Dean. Why is this significant?? Because it could prevent any continental dry air intrusion, allowing Dean to maintain intensity up until landfall -- unlike Rita & Katrina. Scary prospect but something to watch for.

[ConvergenceZone]

From Jeff Lindner:

The intensity guidance is down right troubling. GFDL shows a strong cat 5 (170 + mph) plowing across the Gulf…geez. See no reason why cat 4 intensity will not be reached in the Caribbean and maintained through landfall on the Yucatan…may see cat 5. Given excellent upper level outflow and high ocean heat content Dean will become a very dangerous hurricane

[Derek Ortt]

viewtopic.php?f=29&t=97148

#9... cat 5 is possible from this one

[jasons2k]

I'm really having a hard time figuring Dean out. I expected to see a much more organized core. This looks strong and violent, but not very organized. Are these odd pulses indicative of an organizing storm, or one that is having problems organizing?

Hard to tell with such a small storm on infrared. The other image above shows a glimpse of the eyewall & pretty decent structure.

[jasons2k]

From Jeff Masters:

Jeff Lindner