CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Emmett_Brown]

Interesting quote from the 11pm NHC discussion:

THE UPPER FLOW COULD BE A LITTLE
LESS FAVORABLE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...PARTICULARLY IF THE UPPER
LOW LAGS A BIT.

[HurricaneHunter914]

winds still at 100 per 11pm advisory.

11pm advisory says winds down to 95mph gusts to 120pmh.

Are you looking at the right advisory?

Read This
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0249.shtml

[PTrackerLA]

00z NAM seems takes it directly through the Yucatan Channel. Interesting 500 mb pattern as well.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Weatherfreak14]

winds still at 100 per 11pm advisory.

11pm advisory says winds down to 95mph gusts to 120pmh.

Are you looking at the right advisory?

Read This
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0249.shtml

It says it here.. 95mph

[deltadog03]

Yeah, 00z NAM is gonna shoot the channel!

[Wthrman13]

One thing to keep in mind regarding the NAM, is that it is no longer the same model as the old Eta; the dynamical core (the basic numerical code that solves the equations of motion of the atmosphere) is completely different (it's the WRF-NMM core, essentially). I believe, however, that many of the physics parameterizations were more-or-less ported over from the old Eta model. Bottom line is it should be treated as a completely different model. This includes evaluating its prediction of tropical cyclone tracks. One should not assume that it is just as bad as the old Eta. In point of fact, I haven't been paying a whole lot of attention to its performance, so I'm just not sure whether it is as reliable as, say, the GFS or GFDL, but it is something to keep in mind.

[jhamps10]

well weatherfreak I'm sorry, but that is WRONG. the offical text from NHC has it at 100 MPH, not 95!

[Sanibel]

Edit:

Radar showing likely eye pass on southern Martinique. South Martinique should recieve hard side of storm barring any sudden track shifts.

(Radar never lies)

[LSU2001]

[
Are you looking at the right advisory?

Read This
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0249.shtml[/quote]
It says it here.. 95mph
[/quote]

Where??? the 8:00 pm you posted still shows 100 mph
Tim

[Javlin]

Interesting quote from the 11pm discussion about conditions in the NW Carribean:

THE UPPER FLOW COULD BE A LITTLE
LESS FAVORABLE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...PARTICULARLY IF THE UPPER
LOW LAGS A BIT.

That is interesting "they are looking at it also" the low better start moving,there is about 800-1000 miles seperating these two and Dean is doing 480-552 miles a day.Somehow I have this feeling we may not need the camera at the finish line for the win by a nose contest.This loop shows the distance basically WVloop

[Weatherfreak14]

[
Are you looking at the right advisory?

Read This
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0249.shtml

It says it here.. 95mph
[/quote]

Where??? the 8:00 pm you posted still shows 100 mph
Tim[/quote]

it shows 95mph on my computer but it must be a typo by wunderground, oh well, i believe NHC.

[ConvergenceZone]

I'm soooooo glad to see it not strengthening tonight...

[Brent]

95 was a typo, it's 100.

[RL3AO]

No way it will take 36 hours to gain 15 kts.

[canegrl04]

Yeah, 00z NAM is gonna shoot the channel!

If that does happen,we are going to be looking at a 170mph+ hurricane in the Gulf next week

[HurricaneRobert]

Everyone here an hour ago was saying it would go north, but the NHC's latest advisory has it further south. What's going on?

[wxmann_91]

Remember Ernesto? ULL's take a lot longer to move out than what models indicate, many times. With Emily, the ULL moved SW into the Yucatan and sheared Emily, but there was no effect on track. With Dean, the ULL is progged to track NW, into the GOM. This means two things - first, it could easily enhance outflow rather than restrict it (shear it) (though the second option is possible also), and second, it is more likely to carve out a substantial weakness invof TX/LA. I'm banking on a US landfall right now.

NOTE: the latest SSMIS pass shows that there may be some westerly shear affecting Dean. I know Derek Ortt mentioned this earlier this afternoon (morning here). WV does show some westerly shear in the eastern Caribbean.

[jaxfladude]

I really do not like the looks of this run of the GFDL. Looks like it shows Dean shooting the gap b/w the yuc and cuba then turning north. I hope and pray that with the new Gulfstream data this run is total garbage.
Tim

At the one of the last frames the 155 KTS will will be about 178 MPH winds if the track/intensity verifies

[Sanibel]

Hey - Could a sharp-eyed loop reader look at the NHC Floater visible loop and tell me if they see a possible 265* WSW wobble and move towards St Lucia? I believe I'm seeing this. This is an island change possibly if it happens.

Thanks.

[wiggles]

and what part of the gulf?