CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Yankeegirl]

Sorry J for reposting the e mail from Jeff, I didnt read the 20 pages of new info to see if it was already posted... I just got it and was a little concerned.. no harm done... the posts on this forum are hard to keep up with... Just wanted to pass it along in case it wasnt posted... and even if it was, its good to keep it fresh in everones minds just in case it does threaten the texas coast...

[jhamps10]

Yeah, 00z NAM is gonna shoot the channel!

If that does happen,we are going to be looking at a 170mph+ hurricane in the Gulf next week

yeah. That scares me a lot. Let's see the GFS now. if it goes north, then the US is in a bigger threat. and it may be a strong cat 4, but WAY,WAY,WAY too far out in time to figure that out. However I would not be suprised if it does move north.

[artist]

thanks for that info wthrman13

[HurricaneQueen]

Derek:

I would like to commend you for all of your personal (professional) input into this thread. I'm sure it is much appreciated by our neighbors to the south. Having interests in St. Maarten, we are very involved in the keeping apprised on the activities in the Caribbean.

I wish you all well, friends. Hopefully, the outcome won't be too bad. Thinking of all of you....

Lynn

[Aric Dunn]

Ok DEAN EYE ABOUT TO PASS NORTH OF BARBADOS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS>>



LATEST RADAR LOOP EYE VERY CLEAR NOW




Martinique and st lucia are going to take direct hit

[vaffie]

One thing to keep in mind regarding the NAM, is that it is no longer the same model as the old Eta; the dynamical core (the basic numerical code that solves the equations of motion of the atmosphere) is completely different (it's the WRF-NMM core, essentially). I believe, however, that many of the physics parameterizations were more-or-less ported over from the old Eta model. Bottom line is it should be treated as a completely different model. This includes evaluating its prediction of tropical cyclone tracks. One should not assume that it is just as bad as the old Eta. In point of fact, I haven't been paying a whole lot of attention to its performance, so I'm just not sure whether it is as reliable as, say, the GFS or GFDL, but it is something to keep in mind.

It seemed to have outperformed all the other models including the GFS and GFDL in the prediction of Erin. I was surprised. Now with your explanation it makes more sense.

[jhamps10]

Sorry J for reposting the e mail from Jeff, I didnt read the 20 pages of new info to see if it was already posted... I just got it and was a little concerned.. no harm done... the posts on this forum are hard to keep up with... Just wanted to pass it along in case it wasnt posted... and even if it was, its good to keep it fresh in everones minds just in case it does threaten the texas coast...

hey that's no problem at all. which according to the new NAM, Texas is really in the threat zone now, with it shooting the channel between the Yucatan and Cuba.

[cycloneye]

Shortly we will start to see the 00z GFS rolling in.Lets see if GFS has changes in the long range track with the gulfstream jet data injested.And lets see what the other global models have in the 00z run.

[Deputy Van Halen]

From the wind speed probability table, it looks like they're expecting something to happen tomorrow to dampen the intensity a wee bit. Interaction with those little specks of land, perhaps?

They give it a 40% chance of dropping to Cat 1 in 24 hours, and 5% chance of dropping all the way to T.S.

When the NHC labels these graphics as "products", it makes me feel a twinge of guilt, like maybe I should be paying to see them (other than via taxes) instead of getting them for free. Is that just me?

[cheezyWXguy]

Storm2k disclaimer: The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.



My Forecast:

Hurricane Dean at 11pm EDT, was located at 14.1N, 58.7W, moving west at 25mph, with 85kt winds. Some strengthening is forecast over the next 24 hours. While Dean maybe having some sort of interaction with dry air, Dean is maintaining intensity fairly well, with persistent, yet not too strong, bursts of convection over the center, although satellite presentation has slightly deteriorated. At times and eye was discernable in Dean, but has since dissappeared. The eye is somewhat elliptical, and is not fully formed as of yet.

Dean will speed through the Caribbean Sea over the next 3-4 days at present speed, steadily strengthening as the environment continues to improve. I think the system may begin to turn wnw after day 2, with a turn closer to nw after day 4-5, based on the possibility of a weakness in the GOM from an ULL.

Dean will likely slowly strengthen, reaching category 3 status in about 18-24 hours. From then on intesity should begin to increase at a slightly faster rate days 2-4, reaching category 4 status on day 3. After that, as the storm nears the Yucatan Channel, with extreme heat content and very favorable conditions, the storm could make a run at category 5 status as shown in the forecast, although its a little too early to be sure at the moment.

Intensity forecast:
0hr-85kts
12hr-90kts
24hr-100kts
48hr-110kts
72hr-115kts
96hr-125kts
120hr-140kts


Shot at 2007-08-16

Map curesy of http://www.wunderground.com

[Weatherfreak14]

Ok this is from the NWS Charleston Area forcast disscussion. For long term.


.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A CLOSED LOW ALOFT OVER S FL EARLY SAT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT W INTO
THE GULF OF MEX THIS WEEKEND...WHILE TO ITS N THE ANTICYCLONE ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE FCST AREA...RESULTING IN DEEP
LAYERED SUBSIDENCE SUN THRU THU. THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL BE THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION...THUS WILL GO WITH MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THRU THE FCST PERIOD.

THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ON SAT...WITH A PERHAPS A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NEARBY TO THE N OF THE FCST AREA. WILL CARRY UP TO CHANCE
POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR PROXIMITY TO THIS BOUNDARY AS IT INTERACTS WITH
THE SEA BREEZE.

TEMPS AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGH ENOUGH THAT HEAT
ADVISORIES COULD BE NEEDED EACH DAY.

what will that do to Dean

[jasons2k]

Remember Ernesto? ULL's take a lot longer to move out than what models indicate, many times. With Emily, the ULL moved SW into the Yucatan and sheared Emily, but there was no effect on track. With Dean, the ULL is progged to track NW, into the GOM. This means two things - first, it could easily enhance outflow rather than restrict it (shear it) (though the second option is possible also), and second, it is more likely to carve out a substantial weakness invof TX/LA. I'm banking on a US landfall right now.

And thirdly, prevent continetal dry air intrusion...

BTW, I don't like what I'm hearing from DT on IPR for TX.

I don't see how with Erin and an ULL to follow how there won't be a weakness left over the TX area based on what we know NOW. I hope there's a way out...a lot can change....we'll see....

[canegrl04]

NAM also kicks Dean thru the goal posts. A model trend beginning?

[jasons2k]

Yankeegirl, no worries. It's just crazy right now. Be safe and get your supplies before the rush begins in earnest.

[jhamps10]

NAM also kicks Dean thru the goal posts. A model trend beginning?

cane, not being the thread police, but I just said the same thing, only without using the kicking thru the goal posts.

[Sanibel]

Thanks Aric. Your radar loop shows a west jog that should correct and send the hard eyewall over southern Martinique.

- Radar never lies.

[ConvergenceZone]

Everyone here an hour ago was saying it would go north, but the NHC's latest advisory has it further south. What's going on?

Not everyone was saying it was going to go north... I think most everyone knows the best shot is still somewhere in Mexico, but Texas or any Gulf state shouldn't be letting their guard down

[Aric Dunn]

Thanks Aric. Your radar loop shows a west jog that should correct and send the hard eyewall over southern Martinique.

- Radar never lies.

we should be focusing on landfall now reports and obs from everyone would be great.. I cant look at everything

[Yankeegirl]

i would love to get my supplies now, but i paid all my bills with my paycheck and dont get paid till tuesday!! So i think i am going to have to wait it out and see where its going to go... i have already contacted family members that live in Webster and told them if they have to evac. come to my house... we arent leaving... but i am going to get the in laws to get me some plywood and stuff... I am a little worried about it...

[canegrl04]

NAM also kicks Dean thru the goal posts. A model trend beginning?

cane, not being the thread police, but I just said the same thing, only without using the kicking thru the goal posts.

Sorry