CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Steve]

Didn't catch DT (teamspeak or internet radio show?), but he's good. No problem j. It just seemed like some Louisiana posters were coming out of the woodwork with the NAM. Clearly we should be super concerned, but we can't just hang onto that model regardless of whether its damning or reassuring.

Steve

[StormScanWx]

Wow, thanks for the quick answers. Now yall've sparked my interest more.

[jasons2k]

:lol: Thanks Steve, I needed that. A bit tense here @ the moment. I did not like what DT had to say tonight. I don't like how the pieces are coming together.

Link to what DT said?

See if it's archived on IPR

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Look at the 500mb ridge orientation at 60hrs - more NW-SE

[Duddy]

:lol: Thanks Steve, I needed that. A bit tense here @ the moment. I did not like what DT had to say tonight. I don't like how the pieces are coming together.

Link to what DT said?

See if it's archived on IPR

----------------

Look at the 500mb ridge orientation at 60hrs - more NW-SE

He was pretty much telling Texas to hold on to our boots.

[ExBailbonds]

here is a the 500 loop just refresh and it will add the newest frames

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Derek Ortt]

if the ULL is larger, that could mean much higher shear than was expected before

[artist]

Not liking the looks of this new 00Z run. Looks like a weaker ridge to the north and a slower motion. Both not good for the Gulf States

which Gulf states? thanks for posting here and welcome!

[Extremeweatherguy]

78 hrs.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_078l.gif

500mb.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_078l.gif

Observations: Very similar to the 18z. May be a hair more weakness evident near the northern Yucatan. Will that be enough to draw the storm more northward? I guess we will find out..

[Steve]

>>I agree but what I worry about is the moving high and I guess for a lack of correct weather terminology - that domee thingee that brought us 100 plus heat moving to the SE part of the nation. I also forgot the fact that there is alot of moisture from Erin for it to find. Just my thoughts

And I agree too. Either TX, MS or LA would be in serious peril with a storm, but we've got wait for some trends. It's always a roller coaster when we've got a long time to track it.

Steve

[PTPatrick]

You know that is human nature...I can remember when Katrina and Ivan were coming in my heart of hearts I wanted though East or West outliers to come true...but then...alas, there comes a point 12 hours before landfall were all the lines are on top of each other and then its katy bar the door.

::Shutters at the thought of days of wobble watching and model watching::

[Ivanhater]

Everything looks the same to me ....I would say northern Mexico

[RL3AO]

How reliable is NRL? I was looking at different tracks and was curious? TY

I think the NRL just uses the NHC track.

[Sanibel]

Yes, I've been posting about that southern veer off track and through the pass between St Lucia and Martinique. The eye is wide enough that it will still hit Martinique with the hard side.

[Wthrman13]

if the ULL is larger, that could mean much higher shear than was expected before

The orientation of the UL on this run (and on the NAM 0Z run) would not favor a shearing pattern, however, unless Dean were to cross the UL low/trough axis and get on the SW side. In fact, it may even serve to provide an outflow channel to the NW. Too early to say, of course.

[jasons2k]

Just a quick ob - Dean gains ground on the ULL @ 72 hours

[shelby]

if the ULL is larger, that could mean much higher shear than was expected before

Please help me understand - which ULL are you talking about? Just trying to get the area

[cheezyWXguy]

With the redevelopment of the the bands, as well as possible eye feature trying to develop(though not making much preogress) I could see this at 105-110mph by 8am tomorrow morning. Shear as well as dry air should abate and I think if that happens we could see a cat 3 late tomorrow or tomorrow night

[Wx_Warrior]

I'm going Tx/La border on this one

Still the same due west 90 0z as was in 18z

[StormWarning1]

Looks like it hits Jamaica and weakens slightly at 78 hours. Definetly a little North of the 18z at 84 hours.

[Aric Dunn]

Yes, I've been posting about that southern veer off track and through the pass between St Lucia and Martinique. The eye is wide enough that it will still hit Martinique with the hard side.

yes here take a look

northern eyewall will slam martinique...... !!!