CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[ericinmia]

I'm starting to think that dean is going to jog to the north around jamaica... then resume his stair stepping wnw pattern. It appears that there is enough of a change in the 18z vs. 00z guidance to suggest that difference. Probably heading for the tip of the yucatan...

[vaffie]

At this rate it's going to hit Cozumel or north of there.

[melhow]

He was pretty much telling Texas to hold on to our boots.

Wasn't it something along the lines of the NAM, while being a lousy tropical model (really, not one at all) can have some insight into upper level conditions, and it is maybe seeing the ridge coming down the pike only extending as far West as GA, and just about that far south, and that would allow the storm to travel North, clipping or even missing the Yucatan and hitting central TX? Correct me if I didn't get what I was hearing...

[Aric Dunn]

With the redevelopment of the the bands, as well as possible eye feature trying to develop(though not making much preogress) I could see this at 105-110mph by 8am tomorrow morning. Shear as well as dry air should abate and I think if that happens we could see a cat 3 late tomorrow or tomorrow night

one problem .. recon already confirmed there was no thermodynamic inhibitors PRESENTLY.. conditions are excellent

[Extremeweatherguy]

90 hrs.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_090l.gif

500mb.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_090l.gif

Observations: Very similar to 18z. High over the SE might be a tad further NE and the ULL near the Texas coast is slightly larger.

[TTheriot1975]

TX/LA!! I live there!!

[artist]

Looks like it hits Jamaica and weakens slightly at 78 hours. Definetly a little North of the 18z at 84 hours.

Can you tell me what strength it is showing when it hits Jamaica. I have friends that have family there.

[Ivanhater]

What are yall seeing? It doesnt look north at all on this run...Northern Mexico is likely

[skysummit]

Does any one know for sure if this run contains the new data from today's mission?

[canegrl04]

Looks like it hits Jamaica and weakens slightly at 78 hours. Definetly a little North of the 18z at 84 hours.

Dean could conceivably get into the GOM barely scraping the Yucatan,or going straight thru as the GDFL,and NAM are depicting.

[Weatherfreak14]

Does any one know for sure if this run contains the new data from today's mission?

Yes it does, it has the data run into the models this run.

[ROCK]

TX/LA!! I live there!!

just one model run....and days away...things will change...

[Duddy]

He was pretty much telling Texas to hold on to our boots.

Wasn't it something along the lines of the NAM, while being a lousy tropical model (really, not one at all) can have some insight into upper level conditions, and it is maybe seeing the ridge coming down the pike only extending as far West as GA, and just about that far south, and that would allow the storm to travel North, clipping or even missing the Yucatan and hitting central TX? Correct me if I didn't get what I was hearing...

Nice! You said it better!

[Jagno]

TX/LA!! I live there!!

So do I. This is the 1st run with recon so other than making some normal preps at this time I would wait for more runs tomorrow before getting too upset. Listen to these guys..............they won't let you down.

[Stormcenter]

I'm going Tx/La border on this one

Still the same due west 90 0z as was in 18z

The same here.

[Weatherfreak14]

At 90hrs its seems to bounce back west after hitting jamacia.

[wxmann_91]

With the redevelopment of the the bands, as well as possible eye feature trying to develop(though not making much preogress) I could see this at 105-110mph by 8am tomorrow morning. Shear as well as dry air should abate and I think if that happens we could see a cat 3 late tomorrow or tomorrow night

one problem .. recon already confirmed there was no thermodynamic inhibitors PRESENTLY.. conditions are excellent

Thermodynamic factors does not include shear... not sure how much shear will abate, but once it does, this will likely intensify quite quickly.

[cheezyWXguy]

With the redevelopment of the the bands, as well as possible eye feature trying to develop(though not making much preogress) I could see this at 105-110mph by 8am tomorrow morning. Shear as well as dry air should abate and I think if that happens we could see a cat 3 late tomorrow or tomorrow night

one problem .. recon already confirmed there was no thermodynamic inhibitors PRESENTLY.. conditions are excellent

OK then...thanks for pointing that out...just saying what ive heard.
Also, this loop shows the eye is trying to poke out again:

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... red&zoom=4

(if it works)

[jasons2k]

He was pretty much telling Texas to hold on to our boots.

Wasn't it something along the lines of the NAM, while being a lousy tropical model (really, not one at all) can have some insight into upper level conditions, and it is maybe seeing the ridge coming down the pike only extending as far West as GA, and just about that far south, and that would allow the storm to travel North, clipping or even missing the Yucatan and hitting central TX? Correct me if I didn't get what I was hearing...

That was part of it,

Also, all the rain from Erin, etc., could feedback and lower heights over TX. Not much, but some.

Third, trough digging in PAC NW could help weaken ridge & create weakness over TX

[KFDM Meteorologist]

102 HR headed for Yucatan

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_102l.gif