CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Extremeweatherguy]

102 hrs.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_102l.gif

500mb.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_102l.gif

Observations: Overall very similar to the 18z. Slight differences here and there, but nothing major.

[Aric Dunn]

With the redevelopment of the the bands, as well as possible eye feature trying to develop(though not making much preogress) I could see this at 105-110mph by 8am tomorrow morning. Shear as well as dry air should abate and I think if that happens we could see a cat 3 late tomorrow or tomorrow night

one problem .. recon already confirmed there was no thermodynamic inhibitors PRESENTLY.. conditions are excellent

Thermodynamic factors does not include shear... not sure how much shear will abate, but once it does, this will likely intensify quite quickly.

Shear???
you mean no shear...

maybe its forward motion is what you mean ..

[Wx_Warrior]

From some have posted they do have some data...I am watching this one more closely than yesterday but will really get into 2morrows....I live in Beaumont, right on the Sabine River...Im right with you Theriot!

[ericinmia]

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_ ... im8wv.html

Here is a great water vapor loop to see the different things going on....

[Category6]

The southwest quadrant of the storm is looking ragged.

[artist]

Eric - thanks Could someone do a still shot and post the dome they are talking about,etc., please and if so thanks ahead of time.

[Wx_Warrior]

114

See below...sorry brother

[KFDM Meteorologist]

114 HR crossing the Yucatan

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_114l.gif

[Stratosphere747]

Looking further south. Mexico.

[micktooth]

Cozumel and Cancun again

[Extremeweatherguy]

114 hrs.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_114l.gif (yucatan hit)

500mb.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_114l.gif

Observations: That weakness near TX/LA is concerning and is a bit more pronounced than on the 18z run. I still do not see how this storm could miss it...especially if it was north of where the 00z run is putting it and closer to the NHC path.

[opera ghost]

The southwest quadrant of the storm is looking ragged.

Clipping into the islands, it will look pretty again on the other side.

[TTheriot1975]

Rita visions just keep running through my mind...the models had it moving up that coast soooo fast...I know it is hard to forecast these things...too many weather patterns to work with to steer it. Is it just me...or does the remnants of Erin seem to be turning to the NE to maybe SE? I was looking at the water vapor shots that someone just posted...

[sweetpea]

114 hrs.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_114l.gif (yucatan hit)

500mb.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_114l.gif

Observations: That weakness near TX/LA is concerning and is a bit more pronounced than on the 18z run.

The weakness you are talking about, is it that red line that seems to be pushing back? Sorry about the question, but don't really know how to read these.
Thanks

[RL3AO]

Guys relax. This thing isn't going to dissipate over the islands. It will strengthen some and then once it gets in the central Caribbean...watch out.

[wxmann_91]

Shear???
you mean no shear...

maybe its forward motion is what you mean ..

It could be that. Obviously if the forward motion is faster than the upper level winds at the top, even if they are in the same direction, there would be some storm relative shear. Most of the convection is on the eastern side of the storm.

And, what the heck?

"You may embed only 3 quotes within each other."

[Vandymit]

The same as the past four runs. These models are on to something.

[EyELeSs1]

abajan anything new to report?

it's really gusty here @ the moment... gusting 30-35mph every now and again pressure falling quite a bit now as well to 1012mb

[SaveNola]

gfs stays consistent. nhc has been consistent. i'm starting to buy into this cancun/yp track.

[vaffie]

At 108 hours, the storm appears to be going slightly more northerly. The High over the southeast is bigger but also slightly more displaced to the east and more sloped NW to SE--indicating a more northerly track than previous runs. This run may take it into south Texas this time.