Storm DEAN: Observed By AF #304
Storm #04 in Atlantic Ocean1
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 83KT (95.5mph 153.7km/h) In NW Quadrant At 10:45:00 Z
Estimated Max Surface Winds 74.7KT (85.9mph 138.3km/h) *
Date/Time of Recon Report: Friday, August 17, 2007 6:50:00 AM (Fri, 17 Aug 2007 10:50:00 UTC)
Position of the center: 14° 22' N 061° 18' W (14.4°N 61.3°W) [See Map]
Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 72 KT (82.8MPH 133.3km/h)
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured 008nm (9.2miles) From Center At Bearing 313°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 083KT (95.45mph 153.7km/h) From 064°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 018nm (20.7 miles) From Center At Bearing 318°
Minimum pressure: 970 mb (28.64in)
Eye Wall Was Characterized As Being: CLOSED WALL
Eye Form Was Characterized As Being Elliptical , E07/17/15
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature
Center Fix Established At Level(s): 700mb
Navigational Accuracy Measured At 0.02nm
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At 2nm
* = Estimated Surface Winds are assumed 90% of Max Flight Level Winds
CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Re: DEAN:Recon obs=Vortex Data Message,970 mb,closed wall
000
UZNT13 KNHC 171108
XXAA 67117 99143 70612 04341 99976 25801 16080 00719 ///// /////
92470 23000 17579 85208 20406 18584 70870 13200 21558 88999 77999
31313 09608 81052
61616 AF304 0404A DEAN OB 07
62626 SPL 1437N06120W 1056 MBL WND 17579 AEV 00000 DLM WND 18572
976701 WL150 17080 075 =
XXBB 67118 99143 70612 04341 00976 25801 11850 20406 22701 13600
33694 11600
21212 00976 16080 11920 17577 22895 17581 33881 18079 44859 18087
55850 18584 66694 22060
31313 09608 81052
61616 AF304 0404A DEAN OB 07
62626 SPL 1437N06120W 1056 MBL WND 17579 AEV 00000 DLM WND 18572
976701 WL150 17080 075 =
Surface winds 80kts Pressure 976mb
UZNT13 KNHC 171108
XXAA 67117 99143 70612 04341 99976 25801 16080 00719 ///// /////
92470 23000 17579 85208 20406 18584 70870 13200 21558 88999 77999
31313 09608 81052
61616 AF304 0404A DEAN OB 07
62626 SPL 1437N06120W 1056 MBL WND 17579 AEV 00000 DLM WND 18572
976701 WL150 17080 075 =
XXBB 67118 99143 70612 04341 00976 25801 11850 20406 22701 13600
33694 11600
21212 00976 16080 11920 17577 22895 17581 33881 18079 44859 18087
55850 18584 66694 22060
31313 09608 81052
61616 AF304 0404A DEAN OB 07
62626 SPL 1437N06120W 1056 MBL WND 17579 AEV 00000 DLM WND 18572
976701 WL150 17080 075 =
Surface winds 80kts Pressure 976mb
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Re: Hurricane DEAN: (5am p.153) Discussions, Analysis and Imager
[quote="Thunder44"]7am ob in Martinique, no wind report, aneometer may be down.
TFFF 171100Z /////KT 0400 +SHRA OVC010CB 24/24 Q0995 TEMPO 0400 +TSRA=/
looks like it...lowest pressure was at 6am (991)...now rising slowly as the eye pulls away
St Lucia low was at 5am at 998 at the big airport.....little airport got down to 992 at 6am
TFFF 171100Z /////KT 0400 +SHRA OVC010CB 24/24 Q0995 TEMPO 0400 +TSRA=/
looks like it...lowest pressure was at 6am (991)...now rising slowly as the eye pulls away
St Lucia low was at 5am at 998 at the big airport.....little airport got down to 992 at 6am
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 148465
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: HR Dean: For any Island in the Carib that could be affected
BULLETIN-
HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
600 AM AST FRI AUG 17 2007
...CENTER OF DEAN PASSING BETWEEN MARTINIQUE AND ST. LUCIA...MOVING
RAPIDLY WESTWARD...AND ENTERING THE CARIBBEAN...
...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...
...NEW INFORMATION...
TROPICAL STORM WARNING DISCONTINUED FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS IN THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.
...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS AND THE MONA
PASSAGE. A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH AND A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH AND EAST COASTS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND PUERTO RICO.
...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 5 AM AST...HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH
LONGITUDE 60.9 WEST...AROUND 340 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAINT
CROIX...380 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ST THOMAS...440 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
SAN JUAN AND AROUND 455 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PONCE. DEAN WAS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 24 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR
100 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS OR LESS. RESIDENTS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD HAVE ALREADY COMPLETED PREPARATIONS
FOR HURRICANE DEAN.
THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN IS FORECAST TO PASS SOUTH OF SAINT
CROIX AND PUERTO RICO LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...ALL LOCAL INTERESTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THIS CLOSELY AS ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OR INCREASE IN INTENSITY
COULD RESULT IN STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT MARINE INTERESTS ACROSS
THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN...WITH HIGH SEAS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
COASTAL WATERS AND PASSAGES...AND VERY HIGH SURF ALONG THE CARIBBEAN
COASTS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BLOW DOWN
POWER LINES...MAINLY OVER SAINT CROIX AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
PUERTO RICO. MARINERS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA SHOULD ARE
URGED TO SECURE THEIR VESSELS OR MOVE THEM TO SAFE HARBOR ALONG THE
LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS.
...WINDS...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE 39 TO 45 MPH...34 TO 40 KNOTS...
RANGE ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS SOUTHEAST OF
SAINT CROIX AROUND NOON TODAY THEN SPREAD RAPIDLY WESTWARD TO THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
FOR THE LAND AREAS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO
OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY WITH PASSING SQUALLS...AND ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD START TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT ACROSS
ST CROIX AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO ITS SOUTH...AND BY NOON ON
SATURDAY ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE REMAINING CARIBBEAN COASTAL
WATERS.
...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS...
SEAS WILL BUILD RAPIDLY ACROSS THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON...REACHING 14 TO 18 FEET ACROSS THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS
AND UP TO 10 FEET ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH SATURDAY. PERSONS
ALONG THE EAST AND SOUTH EXPOSED COASTAL AREAS SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF
THE DANGEROUS SURF. ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG
THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH RAINBANDS AND SQUALLS
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...AND COULD MOVE ASHORE
ALONG THE COASTS.
...INLAND FLOODING...
FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING. RAINBANDS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NORTHWESTERN FRINGES OF HURRICANE DEAN SHOULD BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND OVER VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE
EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO. RAINFALL TOTALS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF UP TO FIVE INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
ALTHOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED WITH DEAN...WAVE
RUNUP ALONG THE SOUTH AND EAST COASTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS SHOULD
RESULT IN TIDES OF ONE TO TWO FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED. THE NEXT HIGH
TIDES AT ST CROIX IS AT 1114 AM AND AT 813PM. THE NEXT HIGH TIDES
FOR PLAYA DE PONCE 715 PM.
...SURF CONDITIONS...
HIGH WAVES CREATED FROM THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE LOCAL COAST LINES
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WAVES OF 6 TO 8 FEET ALONG THE EAST AND SOUTH
COASTS. HOWEVER...LARGE HURRICANE SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO INVADE THE
AREA WATERS BEFORE SUNSET...AND PRODUCE VERY LARGE BREAKING WAVES OF
10 TO 18 FEET OVERNIGHT ALONG THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN REEFS AND
COASTLINES. THESE LARGE BREAKING WAVES WILL GENERATE VERY STRONG AND
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WITHIN THE SURF ZONE.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 900 AM AST
FRIDAY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN SAN JUAN
What will we can expect in Puerto Rico,Culebra,Vieques and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
600 AM AST FRI AUG 17 2007
...CENTER OF DEAN PASSING BETWEEN MARTINIQUE AND ST. LUCIA...MOVING
RAPIDLY WESTWARD...AND ENTERING THE CARIBBEAN...
...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...
...NEW INFORMATION...
TROPICAL STORM WARNING DISCONTINUED FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.
...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS IN THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.
...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS AND THE MONA
PASSAGE. A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH AND A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH AND EAST COASTS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND PUERTO RICO.
...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 5 AM AST...HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH
LONGITUDE 60.9 WEST...AROUND 340 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAINT
CROIX...380 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ST THOMAS...440 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
SAN JUAN AND AROUND 455 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PONCE. DEAN WAS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 24 MPH...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR
100 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS OR LESS. RESIDENTS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD HAVE ALREADY COMPLETED PREPARATIONS
FOR HURRICANE DEAN.
THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN IS FORECAST TO PASS SOUTH OF SAINT
CROIX AND PUERTO RICO LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...ALL LOCAL INTERESTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THIS CLOSELY AS ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OR INCREASE IN INTENSITY
COULD RESULT IN STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT MARINE INTERESTS ACROSS
THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN...WITH HIGH SEAS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
COASTAL WATERS AND PASSAGES...AND VERY HIGH SURF ALONG THE CARIBBEAN
COASTS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BLOW DOWN
POWER LINES...MAINLY OVER SAINT CROIX AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
PUERTO RICO. MARINERS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA SHOULD ARE
URGED TO SECURE THEIR VESSELS OR MOVE THEM TO SAFE HARBOR ALONG THE
LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS.
...WINDS...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE 39 TO 45 MPH...34 TO 40 KNOTS...
RANGE ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS SOUTHEAST OF
SAINT CROIX AROUND NOON TODAY THEN SPREAD RAPIDLY WESTWARD TO THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
FOR THE LAND AREAS OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO
OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY WITH PASSING SQUALLS...AND ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD START TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT ACROSS
ST CROIX AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO ITS SOUTH...AND BY NOON ON
SATURDAY ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE REMAINING CARIBBEAN COASTAL
WATERS.
...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS...
SEAS WILL BUILD RAPIDLY ACROSS THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON...REACHING 14 TO 18 FEET ACROSS THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS
AND UP TO 10 FEET ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH SATURDAY. PERSONS
ALONG THE EAST AND SOUTH EXPOSED COASTAL AREAS SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF
THE DANGEROUS SURF. ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG
THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH RAINBANDS AND SQUALLS
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...AND COULD MOVE ASHORE
ALONG THE COASTS.
...INLAND FLOODING...
FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING. RAINBANDS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NORTHWESTERN FRINGES OF HURRICANE DEAN SHOULD BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND OVER VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE
EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO. RAINFALL TOTALS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF UP TO FIVE INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.
...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
ALTHOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED WITH DEAN...WAVE
RUNUP ALONG THE SOUTH AND EAST COASTS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS SHOULD
RESULT IN TIDES OF ONE TO TWO FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED. THE NEXT HIGH
TIDES AT ST CROIX IS AT 1114 AM AND AT 813PM. THE NEXT HIGH TIDES
FOR PLAYA DE PONCE 715 PM.
...SURF CONDITIONS...
HIGH WAVES CREATED FROM THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE LOCAL COAST LINES
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WAVES OF 6 TO 8 FEET ALONG THE EAST AND SOUTH
COASTS. HOWEVER...LARGE HURRICANE SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO INVADE THE
AREA WATERS BEFORE SUNSET...AND PRODUCE VERY LARGE BREAKING WAVES OF
10 TO 18 FEET OVERNIGHT ALONG THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN REEFS AND
COASTLINES. THESE LARGE BREAKING WAVES WILL GENERATE VERY STRONG AND
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WITHIN THE SURF ZONE.
...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY 900 AM AST
FRIDAY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN SAN JUAN
What will we can expect in Puerto Rico,Culebra,Vieques and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
0 likes
-
Innotech
- Category 5
- Posts: 1031
- Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 5:32 pm
- Location: Lafayette, Louisiana
- Contact:
Re: Hurricane DEAN: (5am p.153) Discussions, Analysis and Imager
well I have to say it does look better this morning and a lot stronger than many hurricanes/TS that pass over the antilles. They usually arent this organized this early, and that is worrisome.
I know NHC has a lot to decide their track by, but I kind of see that squeeze play between the two ULLs and a possible realigning of the ridge more NS. Could this mean more northerly track as some discussed earlier?
I know NHC has a lot to decide their track by, but I kind of see that squeeze play between the two ULLs and a possible realigning of the ridge more NS. Could this mean more northerly track as some discussed earlier?
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 148465
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re:
caribepr wrote:Wow...TROPICAL STORM WARNING DISCONTINUED FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE NORTHERN U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
Interesting. Why do you think they did that, Luis? Do you think they feel we're not going to be impacted as strongly as suggested in the earlier report?
mj,what they did was to cancel the warning for the Atlantic side only as the biggest impacts from the Tropical Storm force winds in gusts will be in the Caribbean Sea meaning the South coasts of PR,Culebra and Vieques.
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Re: Hurricane DEAN: (5am p.153) Discussions, Analysis and Imager
Over the past 2 hours it looks like it's becoming better organized. More outflow in the West and South Quads. Explosive convection in around the eye.
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Emmett_Brown
- Category 5
- Posts: 1433
- Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 9:10 pm
- Location: Sarasota FL
Re: Hurricane DEAN: (5am p.153) Discussions, Analysis and Imager
I might be wrong, but i think Dean has begun to slow his forward speed a bit... just my visual observation from the last 6 hours of frames. View this and let me know if you agree. Mind you, not talking a huge slowdown, but seems to be in the 15-20 mph range instead of the 20-25 mph range:
http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/satellite/satanim.cgi?chnl=ui4&domain=crb&size=large&period=360&incr=15&rr=300&satplat=goes12&overlay=off
http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/satellite/satanim.cgi?chnl=ui4&domain=crb&size=large&period=360&incr=15&rr=300&satplat=goes12&overlay=off
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 148465
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Hurricane DEAN: Advisories Only
639
WTNT34 KNHC 171139
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
800 AM AST FRI AUG 17 2007
...DEAN POUNDING MARTINIQUE AND DOMINICA...HEADING FOR THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. LUCIA... MARTINIQUE...
DOMINICA...AND GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...GRENADA
AND ITS DEPENDENCIES...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...MONTSERRAT...
ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST KITTS...BARBUDA...ST. MAARTEN...AND ANGUILLA
AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES BEEN DISCONTINUED.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF DEAN.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED BY
AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 61.7 WEST OR 50 MILES...80 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
MARTINIQUE.
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD TAKE THE
CENTER OF DEAN AWAY FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES LATER TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY
OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER. SOME
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM. FORT-DE-FRANCE ON MARTINIQUE RECENTLY REPORTED A
WIND GUST OF 87 MPH...143 KM/HR...WHILE DOMINICA REPORTED A WIND
GUST OF 64 MPH...104 KM/HR.
A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE JUST MEASURED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF
970 MB...28.64 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS POSSIBLE
NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...ARE POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH DEAN IN THE LESSER ANTILLES. ACROSS PUERTO
RICO...STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 5 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
REPEATING THE 800 AM AST POSITION...14.4 N...61.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 23 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/MAINELLI
WTNT34 KNHC 171139
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
800 AM AST FRI AUG 17 2007
...DEAN POUNDING MARTINIQUE AND DOMINICA...HEADING FOR THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. LUCIA... MARTINIQUE...
DOMINICA...AND GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...GRENADA
AND ITS DEPENDENCIES...SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...MONTSERRAT...
ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST KITTS...BARBUDA...ST. MAARTEN...AND ANGUILLA
AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES BEEN DISCONTINUED.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF DEAN.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED BY
AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 61.7 WEST OR 50 MILES...80 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
MARTINIQUE.
DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 23 MPH...37 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD TAKE THE
CENTER OF DEAN AWAY FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES LATER TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY
OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN NEAR THE PATH OF THE CENTER. SOME
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM. FORT-DE-FRANCE ON MARTINIQUE RECENTLY REPORTED A
WIND GUST OF 87 MPH...143 KM/HR...WHILE DOMINICA REPORTED A WIND
GUST OF 64 MPH...104 KM/HR.
A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE JUST MEASURED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF
970 MB...28.64 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS POSSIBLE
NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...ARE POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH DEAN IN THE LESSER ANTILLES. ACROSS PUERTO
RICO...STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 5 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
REPEATING THE 800 AM AST POSITION...14.4 N...61.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 23 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/MAINELLI
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tropicsgal05
- Tropical Depression
- Posts: 92
- Joined: Sun Jun 05, 2005 7:25 am
- Location: FT. Walton Beach. Florida
Re: Hurricane DEAN Global Models
Just when i thought we here in the Florida Panhandle was out of the woods. But i do remember OPal so time will tell.
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Re: Hurricane DEAN: (5am p.153) Discussions, Analysis and Imager
Emmett_Brown wrote:I might be wrong, but i think Dean has begun to slow his forward speed a bit... just my visual observation from the last 6 hours of frames. View this and let me know if you agree. Mind you, not talking a huge slowdown, but seems to be in the 15-20 mph range instead of the 20-25 mph range:
http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/satellite/satanim.cgi?chnl=ui4&domain=crb&size=large&period=360&incr=15&rr=300&satplat=goes12&overlay=off
What, if any, would it slowing down at this time have on the forecasted track? ..... or was a slowdown at this time expected now that it's entering the Carribean.
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Windtalker2
- Tropical Low
- Posts: 48
- Age: 45
- Joined: Tue Jun 19, 2007 6:28 am
- Location: Davie Florida
Re: Hurricane DEAN: (5am p.153) Discussions, Analysis and Imager
Also looks more WNW than westEmmett_Brown wrote:I might be wrong, but i think Dean has begun to slow his forward speed a bit... just my visual observation from the last 6 hours of frames. View this and let me know if you agree. Mind you, not talking a huge slowdown, but seems to be in the 15-20 mph range instead of the 20-25 mph range:
http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/satellite/satanim.cgi?chnl=ui4&domain=crb&size=large&period=360&incr=15&rr=300&satplat=goes12&overlay=off
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 148465
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Hurricane DEAN Global Models
WHXX04 KWBC 171127
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
HURRICANE DEAN 04L
INITIAL TIME 6Z AUG 17
DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 14.2 59.8 275./21.0
6 14.2 61.7 272./18.2
12 14.4 63.7 276./19.3
18 14.5 65.2 271./14.4
24 14.8 66.7 283./15.6
30 15.4 68.2 290./15.3
36 15.9 69.7 289./15.5
42 16.5 71.3 290./16.3
48 17.0 73.1 286./18.2
54 17.6 75.0 288./18.7
60 18.2 76.9 286./18.7
66 18.8 78.6 290./17.2
72 19.5 80.3 292./17.5
78 20.3 81.9 298./17.7
84 21.2 83.7 296./18.3
90 22.2 85.1 303./16.9
96 23.2 86.7 304./18.1
102 24.4 88.3 306./18.5
108 25.4 89.9 302./18.1
114 26.6 91.3 310./16.4
120 27.6 92.8 305./17.1
126 28.7 94.1 310./15.7
6z GFDL is GOM bound.
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
HURRICANE DEAN 04L
INITIAL TIME 6Z AUG 17
DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 14.2 59.8 275./21.0
6 14.2 61.7 272./18.2
12 14.4 63.7 276./19.3
18 14.5 65.2 271./14.4
24 14.8 66.7 283./15.6
30 15.4 68.2 290./15.3
36 15.9 69.7 289./15.5
42 16.5 71.3 290./16.3
48 17.0 73.1 286./18.2
54 17.6 75.0 288./18.7
60 18.2 76.9 286./18.7
66 18.8 78.6 290./17.2
72 19.5 80.3 292./17.5
78 20.3 81.9 298./17.7
84 21.2 83.7 296./18.3
90 22.2 85.1 303./16.9
96 23.2 86.7 304./18.1
102 24.4 88.3 306./18.5
108 25.4 89.9 302./18.1
114 26.6 91.3 310./16.4
120 27.6 92.8 305./17.1
126 28.7 94.1 310./15.7
6z GFDL is GOM bound.
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Re: Hurricane DEAN Global Models
6z GFDL has it heading towards the TX/LA border as Cat 5 again:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
Last edited by Thunder44 on Fri Aug 17, 2007 6:53 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Updates From Barbados Re: DEAN (As Observed From My House)
Barbados report from stormcarib.com
looks like Barbados is OK.
it's the other islands we are worried about now.
(btw, high winds, high seas, and cloudy skies on sxm this morning..no rain)
ALL CLEAR GIVEN FOR BARBADOS
* From: "A.P. B." <busquay at hotmail.com>
* Date: Fri, 17 Aug 2007 11:14:43 +0000
As at 7.00 am this morning, the official all clear has been given to Barbados. This means that all Barbadians should start the process of returning to their normal routine of a Friday morning.
It is still expected to be a bit windy and some occasional showers. Few reports of some fallen trees which temporarily blocked some roads , but they are now cleared.
So it appears, all things considered, Barbados weathered the storm for which we are all grateful.
We just continue to monitor what's happening to our Caribbean family in St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Dominica etc.etc
Be safe
looks like Barbados is OK.
it's the other islands we are worried about now.
(btw, high winds, high seas, and cloudy skies on sxm this morning..no rain)
ALL CLEAR GIVEN FOR BARBADOS
* From: "A.P. B." <busquay at hotmail.com>
* Date: Fri, 17 Aug 2007 11:14:43 +0000
As at 7.00 am this morning, the official all clear has been given to Barbados. This means that all Barbadians should start the process of returning to their normal routine of a Friday morning.
It is still expected to be a bit windy and some occasional showers. Few reports of some fallen trees which temporarily blocked some roads , but they are now cleared.
So it appears, all things considered, Barbados weathered the storm for which we are all grateful.
We just continue to monitor what's happening to our Caribbean family in St. Lucia, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Dominica etc.etc
Be safe
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