CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Guys, I understand that many are on edge with this
latest path, but try to keep focus on Dean...

I do think this may undergo rapid intensification
in the E.Caribbean with more convection.

[weatherguru18]

I hope you guys buy some gasoline pretty quick if we get a gulf coast strike we're probably going to have a spike in gasoline prices.

Gas here in Houston has actually been falling (at least in my area.) There was an article on khou.com that said gas is down 5 cents.

[Evil Jeremy]

I cant believe The Weather Channel! Their already in "All Day Tropics" mode! I love when they do it, but its just to early!

[Wthrman13]

Turned on CNN this morning.Their update for Dean: Tuesday projection has him entering the YC as cat 4

Today Show had the same thing - going right into Yucatan. Not sure if that'll happen, based on latest models. Could shoot the gap instead - which would be bad news for US landfall locations, TX and LA.

Come on guys...of course they had the same thing. Any track you see on the BIG news media (other than from Accuweather) is going to be based on the NHC's track. You can get the same info from the NHC site or Storm 2K. The reason they both show it hitting the Yucatan is because the NHC has it hitting the Yucatan.

For which we should be thankful (that news agencies are mostly following the NHC track and not another weather source that shall remain nameless)...

[Acral]

Because, of course, there are no reasons for us to continue to live in New Orleans. We don't have family ties, property that can't be sold to enable us to live elsewhere, jobs that still exist and must be done, kids about to finish their high schools, etc. We're all just sitting here drooling stupidly with targets painted on our chests.

I understand your frustration, but your reply is a little bit funny.

Seriously, I am not sure how much has actually been done in 'Nawlins to mitigate another storm, but from what I have read the levees have NOT ben re-architectured as the Army Corps of Engineers suggested. I know there are huge swaths in New Orleans that remain in the same condition as when the waters receded. Govenor Blaco and Mayor Nagin seemed to do an abyssmal job last time, and with any luck the powers that be will do all they can for the large segment of the population that is unable to care for themselves.

The mantra here in Gulf Shores is to be prepared to survive with no help whatsoever for at least 72 hours. Many in the impoverished sections of all major population centers would do well to remember that.

Back to Dean, I think we will continue to see the models trend further east as as I have said all along, even to jeers, I don't think that ridge is going to hold.

[storm4u]

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... 5d#a_topad

[Toadstool]

I cant believe The Weather Channel! Their already in "All Day Tropics" mode! I love when they do it, but its just to early!

Wow, they should have at least waited until Sunday! yikes... do they get TWC in the Yucatan?

[stormhorn]

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... 5d#a_topad

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[tolakram]

I wonder if we'll finally see an eye in a few hours. It's sure looking good at the moment.

[6SpeedTA95]

I hope you guys buy some gasoline pretty quick if we get a gulf coast strike we're probably going to have a spike in gasoline prices.

Gas here in Houston has actually been falling (at least in my area.) There was an article on khou.com that said gas is down 5 cents.

Yeah it has been here too. If this thing hits the gulf coast and predictions continue to shift slightly to the north prices will go up to compensate for the down production. Houston is the oil/gas mecca of the world. If you live in houston you're well aware of that

[Stormcenter]

Spaghetti plot of ALL models. Now, some of these models would never be used for true tropical forecasting, but you can see the consensus has shifted northerly overnight...

It reminds of the model map I saw before Katrina hit LA./MS.
I would say somewhere in Texas is the bullseye right now.

[canegrl04]

Dr. Steve Lyons : Watch the ULL over Florida.If it gets out in front of Dean(in the gulf),he goes west.If it stays ahead of Dean,he doesn't

[DESTRUCTION5]

Here are the GFS Ensembles which point landfall farther up the coast than the GFS did.

http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/pan/t ... 4L.ens.gif



Steve

[Evil Jeremy]

Storm2k disclaimer: The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

EJ’s Forecasts
Hurricane Dean
Advisory 10
9:30AMEDT

Various Tropical Storm watches and warnings and a hurricane warning are in affect for parts of the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and various other islands across the Caribbean. More watches and warnings will probably be issued later today.

Dean continues to intensify as it enters the Caribbean. Hurricane Hunters took off this morning at 5:00AMEDT for their first flight today, and a recent VDM (Vortex Data Message) indicates that the pressure has dropped to 965 MB. I am tempted to call Dean a Major Hurricane this advisory, but I am going to leave the winds at 110 MPH until I receive more data.

The latest computer model runs are generally more northward than some of the previous. Most of the models take Dean into the Yucatan Peninsula, but only into its northern tip. The new GFDL run takes Dean in-between Yucatan and Cuba before sending it into the Gulf of Mexico. My cone has been adjusted to as such.


Dean is currently heading west at about 25 MPH. This westward motion should continue through the next few days followed by a general WNW and eventually NW heading in about 4-5 days.

Now that Dean has passed through the Lesser Antilles, the next major area of concern will be Jamaica. People in Jamaica should start preparing for a Category 3-4 direct strike.

Interests along the Caribbean, as well as the SE USA and the GOM should closely monitor this system.

Hurricane Hunters are currently flying in Hurricane Dean. Their data will be incorporated into my forecasts today.

INITIAL 110 MPH
12HR 115 MPH
24HR 120 MPH
48HR 135 MPH
72HR 140 MPH
96HR 135 MPH
120HR 115 MPH

[x-y-no]

Here are the GFS Ensembles which point landfall farther up the coast than the GFS did.

http://wwwt.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/pan/t ... 4L.ens.gif



Steve

Well now that's interesting. The previous couple of days, the operational GFS was the north outlier of the ensemble ... now it's more south than the ensemble consensus ...

[gtsmith]

"If it gets out in front of Dean(in the gulf),he goes west.If it stays ahead of Dean,he doesn't"

gets out in front...stays ahead...dont they seem to mean the same thing or is it me? Please explain this a bit better. Thanks

[Cape Verde]

Spaghetti plot of ALL models. Now, some of these models would never be used for true tropical forecasting, but you can see the consensus has shifted northerly overnight...

It reminds of the model map I saw before Katrina hit LA./MS.
I would say somewhere in Texas is the bullseye right now.

What the hell is the AP11 model that takes the storm to Costa Rica, which has never had a hurricane in history?

[rockyman]

When all of the Katrina models were "pointing" toward MS/LA...we were less than 3 days out...not more than 5 days out...Remember that as Katrina was EXITING the Florida Peninsula...the projected landfall was Apalachicola...(Bay St Louis and New Orleans were not even in the 3 day cone):

[Lowpressure]

Dr. Steve Lyons : Watch the ULL over Florida.If it gets out in front of Dean(in the gulf),he goes west.If it stays ahead of Dean,he doesn't

Not sure that is what you meant to say.