CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

This is looking very very bad for the northwestern gulf coast...

People in those ares should check their hurricane supplies...

[gboudx]

Wow...models shifting north...less agreement with this ridge...Cant tell yet..but I think North Texas and West LA will be in the bullseye soon

What area do you mean by "North Texas"?

The greater Houston area to Beaumont

Okay. Yeah, that's more like the Central to SE Texas coastal area. "North Texas" usually comprised an area from around DFW westward. And even that is up for debate amongst Tejans.

[Ivanhater]

What area do you mean by "North Texas"?[/quote]


The greater Houston area to Beaumont[/quote]

Okay. Yeah, that's more like the Central to SE Texas coastal area. "North Texas" usually comprised an area from around DFW westward. And even that is up for debate amongst Tejans.[/quote]

Lol...Ill leave that up to you Texans ...but yeah...thats the area Im thinking this morning..of course, still subject to change and probably will

[artist]

good news abajan!

[Brent]

HURRICANE DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1500 UTC FRI AUG 17 2007

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MARTINIQUE...DOMINICA...
AND GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES. THE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE
DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...SABA...ST.
EUSTATIUS...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST KITTS...BARBUDA...ST.
MAARTEN...AND ANGUILLA AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR ST. LUCIA HAS
BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER. A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM CABO BEATA
TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.

AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR HAITI FROM THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 11AM AST...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GRENADA AND
ITS DEPENDENCIES HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 62.6W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 964 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 50SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE 50SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 200SE 60SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 62.6W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 61.7W

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 15.0N 65.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 15.8N 69.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 50SE 30SW 75NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 75SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 16.7N 72.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 75NE 50SE 30SW 75NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 75SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.5N 75.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 80SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.5N 82.0W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 80SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 21.5N 88.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 24.0N 94.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 62.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 17 2007

...DEAN MOVING AWAY FROM LESSER ANTILLES AND STRENGTHENING...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MARTINIQUE...DOMINICA...
AND GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES. THE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE
DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...SABA...ST.
EUSTATIUS...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST KITTS...BARBUDA...ST.
MAARTEN...AND ANGUILLA AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR ST. LUCIA HAS
BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER. A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM CABO BEATA
TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.

AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR HAITI FROM THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 11AM AST...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GRENADA AND
ITS DEPENDENCIES HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.6 WEST OR ABOUT 105 MILES...
170 KM...WEST OF MARTINIQUE AND ABOUT 350 MILES...565 KM...SOUTHEAST
OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS TRACK
WILL KEEP DEAN OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...165
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AND DEAN IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
MILES...295 KM.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 964 MB...28.47 INCHES.

STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM DEAN OVER
PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO
5 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
10 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...14.6 N...62.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/MAINELLI

[HURAKAN]

Latest images, eye remains intact.

[artist]

stay safe eyeless

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Latest RECCO...

URNT11 KNHC 171505
97779 14504 60157 63608 30400 07058 08088 /3137
RMK AF304 0404A DEAN OB 20
SWS = 036KTS

Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 17th day of the month at 15:05Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last digit of aircraft registration number is 304)
Storm Number: 04
Storm Name: Dean (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 20

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Friday, 14:50Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 15.7N 63.6W
Location: 248 miles (400 km) to the SE (139°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 3,040 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 70° at 58 knots (From the ENE at ~ 66.7 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: 8°C
Flight Level Dew Point: 8°C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Shower(s) (continuous or intermittent precipitation - from cumuliform clouds)
700 mb Surface Altitude: 3,137 geopotential meters

Remarks: SWS 036KTS

[weunice]

Isn't 964 lower than it has been yet?

[Extremeweatherguy]

11am...

105mph - 964mb

[HUC]

A lot of dammages in Martinica,mainly in the south part...
Here in Guadeloupe,strong winds,70 to 100kh in heavy and brisk squalls;seas becoming rough.We don't think that Dean had a so long duration in our area,due to it's rapid motion!!!!

[MGC]

Waking to the news that some of the models have shifted to the right. I am not at all surprised. Wednesday evening I voiced my concern over the ULL/trough over the Bahamas and its potential interaction with Dean. I'm afraid those concerns might come to pass. Just looking at the setup Wednesday night I knew Dean would not plow into the Yucatan and move into the BOC. There was no way that ULL was going to say far enough ahead of Dean not to affect its path. IMO, I would not be surprised if the models shift even further right. Upper TX coast towards central LA seem currently to be at highest risk. It is imperative that Dean traverse the GOM west of the loop current......MGC

[Brent]

[Brent]

Isn't 964 lower than it has been yet?

Yes it is, first time below 970.

[CronkPSU]

NHC nudged it over again ever so slightly to the right but still not the NW or NNW turn some of the models are indicating past the Yucatan

[Extremeweatherguy]

Houston now officially in the wxunderground 5-day cone.

[jhamps10]

extrapolating the possible landfall point from this advisory would be on the very tip of the Yucatan, and us landfall at the border. Watch oil prices skyrocket between now and end of trading day.

[x-y-no]

From the discussion:

THE GFDL SOLUTION INSISTS ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL...BRINGING DEAN INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO
AS A STRONGER HURRICANE THAN INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT GUIDANCE FOR DAY 4 AND 5 IS MORE UNCERTAIN
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY.

The forecast track barely nicks the Yucatan now ... Not a good trend.

[Stormcenter]

Houston now officially in the wxunderground 5-day cone.

It was only a matter of time.