CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Brent]

HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 AM EDT FRI AUG 17 2007

THE CENTER OF DEAN CROSSED THE LESSER ANTILLES THIS MORNING BETWEEN
ST. LUCIA AND MARTINIQUE AS INDICATED BY THE MARTINIQUE RADAR. AT
0842 UTC...THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF MARTINIQUE REPORTED
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 66 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 90 KNOTS. AN AIR FORCE
PLANE REACHED THE HURRICANE AND MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 964
MB...FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 100 KNOTS AND A CLOSED EYEWALL. THE
CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY WITH
PLENTY OF BANDING FEATURES AND OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS. LATEST
VISIBLE IMAGE SHOWS AN EYE FEATURE. BOTH SATELLITE PRESENTATION
AND DATA FROM THE SFMR ON THE PLANE SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF
90 KNOTS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING
SINCE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEAR WILL BE LOW ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN. DEAN COULD BECOME A VERY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WHEN IT
REACHES THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WHERE THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS THE
HIGHEST. IN FACT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS OF
SHIPS...GFDL AND HWRF MODELS.

THE MOTION OF DEAN...280/18...CONTINUES TO BE CONTROLLED BY A STRONG
RIDGE TO THE NORTH. A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE WESTERN
BAHAMAS IS EXPECTED TO RUN WESTWARD AHEAD OF THE HURRICANE AND THE
ONLY POSSIBLE INFLUENCE ON THE TRACK OF THE HURRICANE IS TO ADD A
SMALL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COMPONENT IN THE LATER PERIODS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WITH A
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO THE NORTH DUE TO THE GFDL AND UKMET MODELS.
THE GFDL SOLUTION INSISTS ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL...BRINGING DEAN INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO
AS A STRONGER HURRICANE THAN INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT GUIDANCE FOR DAY 4 AND 5 IS MORE UNCERTAIN
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/1500Z 14.6N 62.6W 90 KT
12HR VT 18/0000Z 15.0N 65.5W 100 KT
24HR VT 18/1200Z 15.8N 69.0W 105 KT
36HR VT 19/0000Z 16.7N 72.3W 110 KT
48HR VT 19/1200Z 17.5N 75.5W 120 KT
72HR VT 20/1200Z 19.5N 82.0W 130 KT
96HR VT 21/1200Z 21.5N 88.0W 100 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 22/1200Z 24.0N 94.0W 105 KT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[DESTRUCTION5]

From the discussion:

THE GFDL SOLUTION INSISTS ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL...BRINGING DEAN INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO
AS A STRONGER HURRICANE THAN INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT GUIDANCE FOR DAY 4 AND 5 IS MORE UNCERTAIN
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY.

is if your in the Yuc

The forecast track barely nicks the Yucatan now ... Not a good trend.

[Derek Ortt]

peak gust to 103 mph at Martinique, up from 89 mph earlier, and they did have sustained hurricane force winds

[jasons2k]

NAM is furthur north

Dean clones himself!!!! Ahhh!

[Frank P]

For all you GOMers ... per the NHC at 11:00 am

"IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT GUIDANCE FOR DAY 4 AND 5 IS MORE UNCERTAIN
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY."..

uhhh do we have a confidance issue here.... I think so

This BIG uncertainly does not bode good for anyone along the Gulf Coast... stress levels among the coast will be extremely high this weekend... you just can't say for ANY certainty right now where this thing will end up... obviously looking at the latest model run central Tx coast to upper TX/La coasts appears to be at the greatest risk.. for NOW... but that could change big time... one way or another...

[miamicanes177]

If Dean makes a direct hit on Jamaica as a Cat 5 you might never be able to vacation there again.

[tolakram]

You can see the eye dot in this image now, but the surrounding pattern still looks pretty ragged.

[Brent]

THE GFDL SOLUTION INSISTS ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL...BRINGING DEAN INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO
AS A STRONGER HURRICANE THAN INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT GUIDANCE FOR DAY 4 AND 5 IS MORE UNCERTAIN
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY.

Yeah...

130 kt before the Yucatan BTW. Cat 5 is definitely possible.

[TampaFl]

11:00AM Position

[DESTRUCTION5]

If Dean makes a direct hit on Jamaica as a Cat 5 you might never be able to vacation there again.

Id bet on North of Jamacia..

[maxx9512]

From looking at several sat. loops I do not see the ULL in the Bahamas moving much. Kinda just meandering, no west or south movement.
What happens if it does not move at all?
Look here: http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12

[x-y-no]

is if your in the Yuc

Well, that's true. But this trend is leading to higher likelihood of a more powerful storm hitting a more populated area. So overall I'll stick with my comment.

[Stormcenter]

For all you GOMers ... per the NHC at 11:00 am

"IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT GUIDANCE FOR DAY 4 AND 5 IS MORE UNCERTAIN
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY."..

uhhh do we have a confidance issue here.... I think so

This BIG uncertainly does not bode good for anyone along the Gulf Coast... stress levels among the coast will be extremely high this weekend... you just can't say for ANY certainty right now where this thing will end up... obviously looking at the latest model run central Tx coast to upper TX/La coasts appears to be at the greatest risk.. for NOW... but that could change big time... one way or another...

I'm sorry but isn't this ALWAYS the case with any tropical system that it still 5 days away from U.S. landfall? I wasn't confident yesterday in the models when the NHC said they were so it makes no difference to me. We've all seen at one time or another hurricanes do weird things the NHC did not predict so why would this storm be any different? If I live anywhere
along the Gulf coast I would be big time concerned about Dean until he made his final landfall.

[Ivanhater]

Forecast to be 150mph...great ....Im scared to go to work and come back to even more changes!

[Javlin]

Looks like Dean is going to miss the next forcast point not by much .3* N(NHCpt.14.8N 63.5W) now if it remains like this to the next point like by .6*N(NHCpt.15.3N 67.0W) the models trending a more Northerly component might be on to something.Heck Dean might bend back W in a bit just an ob.VIS

[HouTXmetro]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... y#contents

Latest NHC extropolated path is aimed at Brownsville. Discuss

[Chris_in_Tampa]

URNT15 KNHC 171503
AF304 0404A DEAN HDOB 33 20070817
143400 1458N 06259W 6971 03102 9999 +094 +094 064073 074 050 008 03
143430 1500N 06300W 6975 03101 0002 +095 +095 064071 073 049 008 00
143500 1501N 06301W 6976 03106 0006 +094 +094 065064 065 048 007 00
143530 1502N 06302W 6973 03110 0003 +100 +097 065064 065 048 007 00
143600 1504N 06303W 6977 03111 0010 +096 +095 064063 064 048 006 00
143630 1505N 06304W 6973 03120 0018 +092 +092 066059 060 049 006 00
143700 1507N 06306W 6978 03113 0023 +091 +091 068057 058 049 006 00
143730 1508N 06307W 6976 03121 0023 +094 +094 067059 060 051 006 00
143800 1510N 06308W 6969 03133 0017 +102 +089 065058 060 050 006 00
143830 1511N 06309W 6975 03126 0026 +099 +084 065056 056 050 006 00
143900 1513N 06310W 6973 03134 0034 +096 +073 064057 057 048 006 03
143930 1514N 06311W 6975 03133 0043 +090 +075 066058 058 052 006 00
144000 1516N 06313W 6974 03136 0044 +089 +069 068059 059 051 005 00
144030 1517N 06314W 6976 03132 0051 +086 +070 069059 059 048 005 00
144100 1518N 06315W 6974 03140 0054 +085 +070 070059 059 049 005 00
144130 1520N 06316W 6977 03137 0053 +089 +067 070058 059 046 006 00
144200 1521N 06317W 6974 03143 0056 +090 +062 069058 058 049 005 00
144230 1523N 06319W 6975 03143 0063 +085 +063 071058 058 050 005 00
144300 1524N 06320W 6972 03150 0066 +085 +062 073059 059 049 005 00
144330 1526N 06321W 6975 03145 0067 +083 +083 072062 063 046 005 00

Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 17th day of the month at 15:03Z
Date: August 17, 2007
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last digit of aircraft registration number is 304)
Storm Number: 04
Storm Name: Dean (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 33
Time (Z) / Coordinates / Acft. Static Air Press. / Acft. Geo. Hgt. / Extrap. Sfc. Press. / Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) / Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind / SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind / SFMR Rain Rate
14:34:00 14.97N 62.98W 697.1 mb 3,102 m 999.9 mb From 64° (ENE) at 73 kts (83.9 mph) 74 kts (~ 85.1 mph) 50 kts* 8 mm/hr*
14:34:30 15.00N 63.00W 697.5 mb 3,101 m 1000.2 mb From 64° (ENE) at 71 kts (81.6 mph) 73 kts (~ 83.9 mph) 49 kts 8 mm/hr
14:35:00 15.02N 63.02W 697.6 mb 3,106 m 1000.6 mb From 65° (ENE) at 64 kts (73.6 mph) 65 kts (~ 74.8 mph) 48 kts 7 mm/hr
14:35:30 15.03N 63.03W 697.3 mb 3,110 m 1000.3 mb From 65° (ENE) at 64 kts (73.6 mph) 65 kts (~ 74.8 mph) 48 kts 7 mm/hr
14:36:00 15.07N 63.05W 697.7 mb 3,111 m 1001.0 mb From 64° (ENE) at 63 kts (72.4 mph) 64 kts (~ 73.6 mph) 48 kts 6 mm/hr
14:36:30 15.08N 63.07W 697.3 mb 3,120 m 1001.8 mb From 66° (ENE) at 59 kts (67.8 mph) 60 kts (~ 69.0 mph) 49 kts 6 mm/hr
14:37:00 15.12N 63.10W 697.8 mb 3,113 m 1002.3 mb From 68° (ENE) at 57 kts (65.5 mph) 58 kts (~ 66.7 mph) 49 kts 6 mm/hr
14:37:30 15.13N 63.12W 697.6 mb 3,121 m 1002.3 mb From 67° (ENE) at 59 kts (67.8 mph) 60 kts (~ 69.0 mph) 51 kts 6 mm/hr
14:38:00 15.17N 63.13W 696.9 mb 3,133 m 1001.7 mb From 65° (ENE) at 58 kts (66.7 mph) 60 kts (~ 69.0 mph) 50 kts 6 mm/hr
14:38:30 15.18N 63.15W 697.5 mb 3,126 m 1002.6 mb From 65° (ENE) at 56 kts (64.4 mph) 56 kts (~ 64.4 mph) 50 kts 6 mm/hr
14:39:00 15.22N 63.17W 697.3 mb 3,134 m 1003.4 mb From 64° (ENE) at 57 kts (65.5 mph) 57 kts (~ 65.5 mph) 48 kts* 6 mm/hr*
14:39:30 15.23N 63.18W 697.5 mb 3,133 m 1004.3 mb From 66° (ENE) at 58 kts (66.7 mph) 58 kts (~ 66.7 mph) 52 kts 6 mm/hr
14:40:00 15.27N 63.22W 697.4 mb 3,136 m 1004.4 mb From 68° (ENE) at 59 kts (67.8 mph) 59 kts (~ 67.8 mph) 51 kts 5 mm/hr
14:40:30 15.28N 63.23W 697.6 mb 3,132 m 1005.1 mb From 69° (ENE) at 59 kts (67.8 mph) 59 kts (~ 67.8 mph) 48 kts 5 mm/hr
14:41:00 15.30N 63.25W 697.4 mb 3,140 m 1005.4 mb From 70° (ENE) at 59 kts (67.8 mph) 59 kts (~ 67.8 mph) 49 kts 5 mm/hr
14:41:30 15.33N 63.27W 697.7 mb 3,137 m 1005.3 mb From 70° (ENE) at 58 kts (66.7 mph) 59 kts (~ 67.8 mph) 46 kts 6 mm/hr
14:42:00 15.35N 63.28W 697.4 mb 3,143 m 1005.6 mb From 69° (ENE) at 58 kts (66.7 mph) 58 kts (~ 66.7 mph) 49 kts 5 mm/hr
14:42:30 15.38N 63.32W 697.5 mb 3,143 m 1006.3 mb From 71° (ENE) at 58 kts (66.7 mph) 58 kts (~ 66.7 mph) 50 kts 5 mm/hr
14:43:00 15.40N 63.33W 697.2 mb 3,150 m 1006.6 mb From 73° (ENE) at 59 kts (67.8 mph) 59 kts (~ 67.8 mph) 49 kts 5 mm/hr
14:43:30 15.43N 63.35W 697.5 mb 3,145 m 1006.7 mb From 72° (ENE) at 62 kts (71.3 mph) 63 kts (~ 72.4 mph) 46 kts 5 mm/hr
At 14:34:00Z (first observation), the observation was 109 miles (175 km) between the WSW and W (258°) from Roseau, Dominica.
At 14:43:30Z (last observation), the observation was 273 miles (440 km) to the SE (139°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).

Map this message:
http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/p ... .33c-63.35

Suspect values are noted by an asterisk (*).

-------

URNT15 KNHC 171506
AF304 0404A DEAN HDOB 34 20070817
144400 1527N 06322W 6973 03152 0064 +090 +061 073060 061 045 005 00
144430 1529N 06323W 6977 03146 0065 +090 +059 073058 059 045 006 00
144500 1530N 06325W 6975 03150 0067 +088 +062 075058 058 047 005 00
144530 1532N 06326W 6975 03154 0065 +090 +071 073057 057 047 005 00
144600 1533N 06327W 6975 03155 0068 +089 +069 074058 059 050 006 00
144630 1535N 06328W 6975 03153 0070 +086 +075 073058 059 049 005 00
144700 1536N 06329W 6972 03158 0074 +084 +083 072057 058 045 005 00
144730 1538N 06330W 6975 03158 0077 +083 +083 069061 064 043 005 00
144800 1539N 06332W 6977 03156 0077 +085 +085 068064 065 043 006 00
144830 1541N 06333W 6972 03163 0085 +079 +079 067064 065 042 034 03
144900 1542N 06334W 6960 03173 9990 +063 +999 070059 062 044 022 01
144930 1544N 06335W 6990 03142 9990 +060 +999 074060 061 043 017 05
145000 1545N 06337W 6983 03156 0080 +086 +086 069058 060 037 016 00
145030 1547N 06338W 6972 03168 0082 +085 +085 069059 060 037 005 00
145100 1548N 06339W 6975 03164 0087 +083 +083 069059 059 037 005 00
145130 1550N 06340W 6973 03172 0095 +080 +080 069060 060 036 006 03
145200 1550N 06342W 6975 03167 0087 +085 +079 062060 061 035 006 03
145230 1549N 06344W 6976 03172 0090 +085 +073 059059 059 999 999 03
145300 1547N 06345W 6976 03168 0084 +087 +073 059056 057 038 005 03
145330 1545N 06345W 6973 03167 0086 +085 +080 061055 056 038 006 00

Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 17th day of the month at 15:06Z
Date: August 17, 2007
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last digit of aircraft registration number is 304)
Storm Number: 04
Storm Name: Dean (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 34
Time (Z) / Coordinates / Acft. Static Air Press. / Acft. Geo. Hgt. / Extrap. Sfc. Press. / Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) / Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind / SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind / SFMR Rain Rate
14:44:00 15.45N 63.37W 697.3 mb 3,152 m 1006.4 mb From 73° (ENE) at 60 kts (69.0 mph) 61 kts (~ 70.1 mph) 45 kts 5 mm/hr
14:44:30 15.48N 63.38W 697.7 mb 3,146 m 1006.5 mb From 73° (ENE) at 58 kts (66.7 mph) 59 kts (~ 67.8 mph) 45 kts 6 mm/hr
14:45:00 15.50N 63.42W 697.5 mb 3,150 m 1006.7 mb From 75° (ENE) at 58 kts (66.7 mph) 58 kts (~ 66.7 mph) 47 kts 5 mm/hr
14:45:30 15.53N 63.43W 697.5 mb 3,154 m 1006.5 mb From 73° (ENE) at 57 kts (65.5 mph) 57 kts (~ 65.5 mph) 47 kts 5 mm/hr
14:46:00 15.55N 63.45W 697.5 mb 3,155 m 1006.8 mb From 74° (ENE) at 58 kts (66.7 mph) 59 kts (~ 67.8 mph) 50 kts 6 mm/hr
14:46:30 15.58N 63.47W 697.5 mb 3,153 m 1007.0 mb From 73° (ENE) at 58 kts (66.7 mph) 59 kts (~ 67.8 mph) 49 kts 5 mm/hr
14:47:00 15.60N 63.48W 697.2 mb 3,158 m 1007.4 mb From 72° (ENE) at 57 kts (65.5 mph) 58 kts (~ 66.7 mph) 45 kts 5 mm/hr
14:47:30 15.63N 63.50W 697.5 mb 3,158 m 1007.7 mb From 69° (ENE) at 61 kts (70.1 mph) 64 kts (~ 73.6 mph) 43 kts 5 mm/hr
14:48:00 15.65N 63.53W 697.7 mb 3,156 m 1007.7 mb From 68° (ENE) at 64 kts (73.6 mph) 65 kts (~ 74.8 mph) 43 kts 6 mm/hr
14:48:30 15.68N 63.55W 697.2 mb 3,163 m 1008.5 mb From 67° (ENE) at 64 kts (73.6 mph) 65 kts (~ 74.8 mph) 42 kts* 34 mm/hr*
14:49:00 15.70N 63.57W 696.0 mb 3,173 m - From 70° (ENE) at 59 kts (67.8 mph) 62 kts (~ 71.3 mph) 44 kts 22 mm/hr
14:49:30 15.73N 63.58W 699.0 mb 3,142 m - From 74° (ENE) at 60 kts (69.0 mph) 61 kts (~ 70.1 mph) 43 kts* 17 mm/hr*
14:50:00 15.75N 63.62W 698.3 mb 3,156 m 1008.0 mb From 69° (ENE) at 58 kts (66.7 mph) 60 kts (~ 69.0 mph) 37 kts 16 mm/hr
14:50:30 15.78N 63.63W 697.2 mb 3,168 m 1008.2 mb From 69° (ENE) at 59 kts (67.8 mph) 60 kts (~ 69.0 mph) 37 kts 5 mm/hr
14:51:00 15.80N 63.65W 697.5 mb 3,164 m 1008.7 mb From 69° (ENE) at 59 kts (67.8 mph) 59 kts (~ 67.8 mph) 37 kts 5 mm/hr
14:51:30 15.83N 63.67W 697.3 mb 3,172 m 1009.5 mb From 69° (ENE) at 60 kts (69.0 mph) 60 kts (~ 69.0 mph) 36 kts* 6 mm/hr*
14:52:00 15.83N 63.70W 697.5 mb 3,167 m 1008.7 mb From 62° (ENE) at 60 kts (69.0 mph) 61 kts (~ 70.1 mph) 35 kts* 6 mm/hr*
14:52:30 15.82N 63.73W 697.6 mb 3,172 m 1009.0 mb From 59° (ENE) at 59 kts (67.8 mph) 59 kts (~ 67.8 mph) - -
14:53:00 15.78N 63.75W 697.6 mb 3,168 m 1008.4 mb From 59° (ENE) at 56 kts (64.4 mph) 57 kts (~ 65.5 mph) 38 kts* 5 mm/hr*
14:53:30 15.75N 63.75W 697.3 mb 3,167 m 1008.6 mb From 61° (ENE) at 55 kts (63.2 mph) 56 kts (~ 64.4 mph) 38 kts 6 mm/hr
At 14:44:00Z (first observation), the observation was 271 miles (437 km) to the SE (139°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
At 14:53:30Z (last observation), the observation was 239 miles (385 km) to the SE (140°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).

Map this message:
http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/p ... .75c-63.75

Suspect values are noted by an asterisk (*).

--------

HDOB 35 may have been lost.

--------

URNT15 KNHC 171512
AF304 0404A DEAN HDOB 36 20070817
150400 1501N 06354W 6969 03155 0058 +092 +077 048048 049 041 005 00
150430 1459N 06354W 6975 03148 0058 +090 +072 048050 050 036 005 00
150500 1457N 06354W 6973 03149 0059 +090 +069 047049 049 039 006 00
150530 1455N 06354W 6976 03146 0064 +087 +071 044047 049 041 005 03
150600 1453N 06355W 6977 03144 0065 +084 +079 041047 048 039 008 00
150630 1451N 06356W 6972 03151 0066 +084 +072 041047 048 037 007 00
150700 1449N 06356W 6977 03146 0067 +083 +073 040045 045 039 005 00
150730 1447N 06356W 6973 03148 0064 +086 +071 038044 045 040 006 00
150800 1445N 06357W 6973 03148 0060 +088 +072 037043 044 040 005 00
150830 1442N 06357W 6973 03147 0061 +086 +076 036044 044 038 005 00
150900 1440N 06358W 6977 03148 0060 +088 +078 034043 044 037 006 00
150930 1438N 06358W 6971 03152 0063 +089 +078 036042 043 037 005 00
151000 1436N 06359W 6974 03148 0056 +094 +066 030037 037 036 006 00
151030 1434N 06359W 6971 03152 0056 +093 +066 031038 038 036 005 00
151100 1432N 06359W 6971 03153 0058 +090 +072 033038 039 035 005 00
151130 1430N 06400W 6975 03149 0056 +090 +071 032039 040 035 005 00
151200 1428N 06400W 6973 03150 0062 +087 +068 032037 038 035 007 00
151230 1426N 06400W 6969 03154 0064 +086 +074 031037 038 032 006 00
151300 1424N 06401W 6979 03141 0065 +086 +077 028035 036 032 005 00
151330 1421N 06401W 6973 03152 0060 +090 +069 024035 036 030 006 00

Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 17th day of the month at 15:12Z
Date: August 17, 2007
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last digit of aircraft registration number is 304)
Storm Number: 04
Storm Name: Dean (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 36
Time (Z) / Coordinates / Acft. Static Air Press. / Acft. Geo. Hgt. / Extrap. Sfc. Press. / Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) / Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind / SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind / SFMR Rain Rate
15:04:00 15.02N 63.90W 696.9 mb 3,155 m 1005.8 mb From 48° (NE) at 48 kts (55.2 mph) 49 kts (~ 56.3 mph) 41 kts 5 mm/hr
15:04:30 14.98N 63.90W 697.5 mb 3,148 m 1005.8 mb From 48° (NE) at 50 kts (57.5 mph) 50 kts (~ 57.5 mph) 36 kts 5 mm/hr
15:05:00 14.95N 63.90W 697.3 mb 3,149 m 1005.9 mb From 47° (NE) at 49 kts (56.3 mph) 49 kts (~ 56.3 mph) 39 kts 6 mm/hr
15:05:30 14.92N 63.90W 697.6 mb 3,146 m 1006.4 mb From 44° (NE) at 47 kts (54.0 mph) 49 kts (~ 56.3 mph) 41 kts* 5 mm/hr*
15:06:00 14.88N 63.92W 697.7 mb 3,144 m 1006.5 mb From 41° (NE) at 47 kts (54.0 mph) 48 kts (~ 55.2 mph) 39 kts 8 mm/hr
15:06:30 14.85N 63.93W 697.2 mb 3,151 m 1006.6 mb From 41° (NE) at 47 kts (54.0 mph) 48 kts (~ 55.2 mph) 37 kts 7 mm/hr
15:07:00 14.82N 63.93W 697.7 mb 3,146 m 1006.7 mb From 40° (NE) at 45 kts (51.7 mph) 45 kts (~ 51.7 mph) 39 kts 5 mm/hr
15:07:30 14.78N 63.93W 697.3 mb 3,148 m 1006.4 mb From 38° (NE) at 44 kts (50.6 mph) 45 kts (~ 51.7 mph) 40 kts 6 mm/hr
15:08:00 14.75N 63.95W 697.3 mb 3,148 m 1006.0 mb From 37° (NE) at 43 kts (49.4 mph) 44 kts (~ 50.6 mph) 40 kts 5 mm/hr
15:08:30 14.70N 63.95W 697.3 mb 3,147 m 1006.1 mb From 36° (NE) at 44 kts (50.6 mph) 44 kts (~ 50.6 mph) 38 kts 5 mm/hr
15:09:00 14.67N 63.97W 697.7 mb 3,148 m 1006.0 mb From 34° (NE) at 43 kts (49.4 mph) 44 kts (~ 50.6 mph) 37 kts 6 mm/hr
15:09:30 14.63N 63.97W 697.1 mb 3,152 m 1006.3 mb From 36° (NE) at 42 kts (48.3 mph) 43 kts (~ 49.4 mph) 37 kts 5 mm/hr
15:10:00 14.60N 63.98W 697.4 mb 3,148 m 1005.6 mb From 30° (NNE) at 37 kts (42.5 mph) 37 kts (~ 42.5 mph) 36 kts 6 mm/hr
15:10:30 14.57N 63.98W 697.1 mb 3,152 m 1005.6 mb From 31° (NNE) at 38 kts (43.7 mph) 38 kts (~ 43.7 mph) 36 kts 5 mm/hr
15:11:00 14.53N 63.98W 697.1 mb 3,153 m 1005.8 mb From 33° (NNE/NE) at 38 kts (43.7 mph) 39 kts (~ 44.8 mph) 35 kts 5 mm/hr
15:11:30 14.50N 64.00W 697.5 mb 3,149 m 1005.6 mb From 32° (NNE) at 39 kts (44.8 mph) 40 kts (~ 46.0 mph) 35 kts 5 mm/hr
15:12:00 14.47N 64.00W 697.3 mb 3,150 m 1006.2 mb From 32° (NNE) at 37 kts (42.5 mph) 38 kts (~ 43.7 mph) 35 kts 7 mm/hr
15:12:30 14.43N 64.00W 696.9 mb 3,154 m 1006.4 mb From 31° (NNE) at 37 kts (42.5 mph) 38 kts (~ 43.7 mph) 32 kts 6 mm/hr
15:13:00 14.40N 64.02W 697.9 mb 3,141 m 1006.5 mb From 28° (NNE) at 35 kts (40.2 mph) 36 kts (~ 41.4 mph) 32 kts 5 mm/hr
15:13:30 14.35N 64.02W 697.3 mb 3,152 m 1006.0 mb From 24° (NNE) at 35 kts (40.2 mph) 36 kts (~ 41.4 mph) 30 kts 6 mm/hr
At 15:04:00Z (first observation), the observation was 275 miles (442 km) to the SSE (148°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
At 15:13:30Z (last observation), the observation was 312 miles (502 km) to the SSE (154°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).

Map this message:
http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/p ... .02c-64.02

Suspect values are noted by an asterisk (*).

---------

URNT15 KNHC 171521
AF304 0404A DEAN HDOB 37 20070817
151400 1419N 06401W 6975 03148 0059 +092 +068 021034 035 033 005 00
151430 1417N 06402W 6974 03152 0064 +089 +077 024032 034 033 006 00
151500 1415N 06402W 6973 03151 0062 +090 +073 025030 031 034 007 00
151530 1413N 06402W 6974 03153 0063 +089 +075 023029 030 032 006 00
151600 1411N 06402W 6973 03152 0067 +085 +079 022031 032 026 006 00
151630 1409N 06403W 6976 03148 0058 +092 +069 020030 030 025 006 00
151700 1407N 06403W 6972 03152 0060 +090 +075 021030 030 025 006 00
151730 1405N 06403W 6973 03152 0062 +089 +071 020029 030 024 006 00
151800 1403N 06403W 6973 03156 0063 +090 +073 019027 028 025 006 00
151830 1401N 06403W 6973 03157 0064 +090 +074 018026 026 027 006 00
151900 1359N 06404W 6973 03155 0067 +088 +078 017025 025 029 006 00
151930 1357N 06404W 6977 03152 0066 +090 +082 016023 024 024 006 00
152000 1355N 06404W 6974 03153 0064 +090 +083 011021 021 024 006 00
152030 1353N 06405W 6972 03158 0067 +087 +087 003018 019 023 006 00
152100 1351N 06405W 6973 03155 0080 +077 +077 352022 022 024 040 03
152130 1349N 06406W 6975 03153 0083 +076 +076 352023 024 029 009 03
152200 1347N 06406W 6976 03151 0073 +084 +084 351024 024 028 009 00
152230 1345N 06407W 6975 03154 0078 +080 +080 351023 024 022 008 00
152300 1343N 06407W 6973 03159 0069 +087 +087 350022 023 022 006 00
152330 1341N 06408W 6972 03157 0079 +074 +074 349025 026 027 008 03

Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 17th day of the month at 15:21Z
Date: August 17, 2007
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last digit of aircraft registration number is 304)
Storm Number: 04
Storm Name: Dean (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 37
Time (Z) / Coordinates / Acft. Static Air Press. / Acft. Geo. Hgt. / Extrap. Sfc. Press. / Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) / Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind / SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind / SFMR Rain Rate
15:14:00 14.32N 64.02W 697.5 mb 3,148 m 1005.9 mb From 21° (NNE) at 34 kts (39.1 mph) 35 kts (~ 40.2 mph) 33 kts 5 mm/hr
15:14:30 14.28N 64.03W 697.4 mb 3,152 m 1006.4 mb From 24° (NNE) at 32 kts (36.8 mph) 34 kts (~ 39.1 mph) 33 kts 6 mm/hr
15:15:00 14.25N 64.03W 697.3 mb 3,151 m 1006.2 mb From 25° (NNE) at 30 kts (34.5 mph) 31 kts (~ 35.6 mph) 34 kts 7 mm/hr
15:15:30 14.22N 64.03W 697.4 mb 3,153 m 1006.3 mb From 23° (NNE) at 29 kts (33.3 mph) 30 kts (~ 34.5 mph) 32 kts 6 mm/hr
15:16:00 14.18N 64.03W 697.3 mb 3,152 m 1006.7 mb From 22° (NNE) at 31 kts (35.6 mph) 32 kts (~ 36.8 mph) 26 kts 6 mm/hr
15:16:30 14.15N 64.05W 697.6 mb 3,148 m 1005.8 mb From 20° (NNE) at 30 kts (34.5 mph) 30 kts (~ 34.5 mph) 25 kts 6 mm/hr
15:17:00 14.12N 64.05W 697.2 mb 3,152 m 1006.0 mb From 21° (NNE) at 30 kts (34.5 mph) 30 kts (~ 34.5 mph) 25 kts 6 mm/hr
15:17:30 14.08N 64.05W 697.3 mb 3,152 m 1006.2 mb From 20° (NNE) at 29 kts (33.3 mph) 30 kts (~ 34.5 mph) 24 kts 6 mm/hr
15:18:00 14.05N 64.05W 697.3 mb 3,156 m 1006.3 mb From 19° (NNE) at 27 kts (31.0 mph) 28 kts (~ 32.2 mph) 25 kts 6 mm/hr
15:18:30 14.02N 64.05W 697.3 mb 3,157 m 1006.4 mb From 18° (NNE) at 26 kts (29.9 mph) 26 kts (~ 29.9 mph) 27 kts 6 mm/hr
15:19:00 13.98N 64.07W 697.3 mb 3,155 m 1006.7 mb From 17° (NNE) at 25 kts (28.7 mph) 25 kts (~ 28.7 mph) 29 kts 6 mm/hr
15:19:30 13.95N 64.07W 697.7 mb 3,152 m 1006.6 mb From 16° (NNE) at 23 kts (26.4 mph) 24 kts (~ 27.6 mph) 24 kts 6 mm/hr
15:20:00 13.92N 64.07W 697.4 mb 3,153 m 1006.4 mb From 11° (N/NNE) at 21 kts (24.1 mph) 21 kts (~ 24.1 mph) 24 kts 6 mm/hr
15:20:30 13.88N 64.08W 697.2 mb 3,158 m 1006.7 mb From 3° (N) at 18 kts (20.7 mph) 19 kts (~ 21.8 mph) 23 kts 6 mm/hr
15:21:00 13.85N 64.08W 697.3 mb 3,155 m 1008.0 mb From 352° (N) at 22 kts (25.3 mph) 22 kts (~ 25.3 mph) 24 kts* 40 mm/hr*
15:21:30 13.82N 64.10W 697.5 mb 3,153 m 1008.3 mb From 352° (N) at 23 kts (26.4 mph) 24 kts (~ 27.6 mph) 29 kts* 9 mm/hr*
15:22:00 13.78N 64.10W 697.6 mb 3,151 m 1007.3 mb From 351° (N) at 24 kts (27.6 mph) 24 kts (~ 27.6 mph) 28 kts 9 mm/hr
15:22:30 13.75N 64.12W 697.5 mb 3,154 m 1007.8 mb From 351° (N) at 23 kts (26.4 mph) 24 kts (~ 27.6 mph) 22 kts 8 mm/hr
15:23:00 13.72N 64.12W 697.3 mb 3,159 m 1006.9 mb From 350° (N) at 22 kts (25.3 mph) 23 kts (~ 26.4 mph) 22 kts 6 mm/hr
15:23:30 13.68N 64.13W 697.2 mb 3,157 m 1007.9 mb From 349° (N) at 25 kts (28.7 mph) 26 kts (~ 29.9 mph) 27 kts* 8 mm/hr*
At 15:14:00Z (first observation), the observation was 314 miles (505 km) to the SSE (154°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
At 15:23:30Z (last observation), the observation was 351 miles (566 km) to the SSE (158°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).

Map this message:
http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/p ... .12c-64.13

Suspect values are noted by an asterisk (*).

------------

URNT15 KNHC 171537
AF304 0404A DEAN HDOB 38 20070817
152400 1340N 06408W 6979 03153 0096 +064 +064 351021 021 032 040 05
152430 1338N 06409W 6977 03154 0081 +081 +081 350019 020 033 008 00
152500 1336N 06409W 6971 03162 0075 +084 +084 352022 023 032 008 00
152530 1334N 06410W 6973 03158 0078 +083 +083 354023 024 025 007 00
152600 1332N 06410W 6977 03156 0080 +082 +082 355024 025 017 006 00
152630 1330N 06411W 6973 03158 0080 +083 +083 356023 024 017 005 00
152700 1328N 06411W 6973 03160 0077 +086 +086 356023 024 011 005 00
152730 1326N 06411W 6975 03160 0073 +088 +084 354024 025 017 005 00
152800 1324N 06412W 6973 03159 0078 +085 +085 355023 024 015 005 03
152830 1323N 06412W 6968 03170 0082 +086 +085 357022 022 999 999 03
152900 1323N 06410W 6977 03161 0075 +090 +075 358017 020 002 006 03
152930 1324N 06409W 6980 03155 0073 +090 +078 358016 016 010 005 03
153000 1326N 06408W 6972 03165 0072 +088 +079 355016 016 015 005 00
153030 1327N 06407W 6975 03157 0077 +084 +084 356015 015 015 006 00
153100 1328N 06406W 6973 03159 0078 +083 +083 353014 015 017 006 00
153130 1329N 06404W 6976 03160 0078 +082 +082 350015 016 022 007 00
153200 1331N 06403W 6976 03154 0089 +073 +073 345014 015 041 055 03
153230 1332N 06402W 6980 03142 9990 +061 +999 323021 024 054 044 01
153300 1333N 06401W 6977 03145 9990 +059 +999 353016 018 058 047 01
153330 1334N 06400W 6974 03151 9990 +061 +999 005011 015 051 023 05

Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 17th day of the month at 15:37Z
Date: August 17, 2007
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last digit of aircraft registration number is 304)
Storm Number: 04
Storm Name: Dean (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 38
Time (Z) / Coordinates / Acft. Static Air Press. / Acft. Geo. Hgt. / Extrap. Sfc. Press. / Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) / Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind / SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind / SFMR Rain Rate
15:24:00 13.67N 64.13W 697.9 mb 3,153 m 1009.6 mb From 351° (N) at 21 kts (24.1 mph) 21 kts (~ 24.1 mph) 32 kts* 40 mm/hr*
15:24:30 13.63N 64.15W 697.7 mb 3,154 m 1008.1 mb From 350° (N) at 19 kts (21.8 mph) 20 kts (~ 23.0 mph) 33 kts 8 mm/hr
15:25:00 13.60N 64.15W 697.1 mb 3,162 m 1007.5 mb From 352° (N) at 22 kts (25.3 mph) 23 kts (~ 26.4 mph) 32 kts 8 mm/hr
15:25:30 13.57N 64.17W 697.3 mb 3,158 m 1007.8 mb From 354° (N) at 23 kts (26.4 mph) 24 kts (~ 27.6 mph) 25 kts 7 mm/hr
15:26:00 13.53N 64.17W 697.7 mb 3,156 m 1008.0 mb From 355° (N) at 24 kts (27.6 mph) 25 kts (~ 28.7 mph) 17 kts 6 mm/hr
15:26:30 13.50N 64.18W 697.3 mb 3,158 m 1008.0 mb From 356° (N) at 23 kts (26.4 mph) 24 kts (~ 27.6 mph) 17 kts 5 mm/hr
15:27:00 13.47N 64.18W 697.3 mb 3,160 m 1007.7 mb From 356° (N) at 23 kts (26.4 mph) 24 kts (~ 27.6 mph) 11 kts 5 mm/hr
15:27:30 13.43N 64.18W 697.5 mb 3,160 m 1007.3 mb From 354° (N) at 24 kts (27.6 mph) 25 kts (~ 28.7 mph) 17 kts 5 mm/hr
15:28:00 13.40N 64.20W 697.3 mb 3,159 m 1007.8 mb From 355° (N) at 23 kts (26.4 mph) 24 kts (~ 27.6 mph) 15 kts* 5 mm/hr*
15:28:30 13.38N 64.20W 696.8 mb 3,170 m 1008.2 mb From 357° (N) at 22 kts (25.3 mph) 22 kts (~ 25.3 mph) - -
15:29:00 13.38N 64.17W 697.7 mb 3,161 m 1007.5 mb From 358° (N) at 17 kts (19.5 mph) 20 kts (~ 23.0 mph) 2 kts* 6 mm/hr*
15:29:30 13.40N 64.15W 698.0 mb 3,155 m 1007.3 mb From 358° (N) at 16 kts (18.4 mph) 16 kts (~ 18.4 mph) 10 kts* 5 mm/hr*
15:30:00 13.43N 64.13W 697.2 mb 3,165 m 1007.2 mb From 355° (N) at 16 kts (18.4 mph) 16 kts (~ 18.4 mph) 15 kts 5 mm/hr
15:30:30 13.45N 64.12W 697.5 mb 3,157 m 1007.7 mb From 356° (N) at 15 kts (17.2 mph) 15 kts (~ 17.2 mph) 15 kts 6 mm/hr
15:31:00 13.47N 64.10W 697.3 mb 3,159 m 1007.8 mb From 353° (N) at 14 kts (16.1 mph) 15 kts (~ 17.2 mph) 17 kts 6 mm/hr
15:31:30 13.48N 64.07W 697.6 mb 3,160 m 1007.8 mb From 350° (N) at 15 kts (17.2 mph) 16 kts (~ 18.4 mph) 22 kts 7 mm/hr
15:32:00 13.52N 64.05W 697.6 mb 3,154 m 1008.9 mb From 345° (NNW) at 14 kts (16.1 mph) 15 kts (~ 17.2 mph) 41 kts* 55 mm/hr*
15:32:30 13.53N 64.03W 698.0 mb 3,142 m - From 323° (NW) at 21 kts (24.1 mph) 24 kts (~ 27.6 mph) 54 kts 44 mm/hr
15:33:00 13.55N 64.02W 697.7 mb 3,145 m - From 353° (N) at 16 kts (18.4 mph) 18 kts (~ 20.7 mph) 58 kts 47 mm/hr
15:33:30 13.57N 64.00W 697.4 mb 3,151 m - From 5° (N) at 11 kts (12.6 mph) 15 kts (~ 17.2 mph) 51 kts* 23 mm/hr*
At 15:24:00Z (first observation), the observation was 352 miles (567 km) to the SSE (158°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
At 15:33:30Z (last observation), the observation was 362 miles (582 km) to the SSE (157°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).

Map this message:
http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/p ... .02c-64.00

Suspect values are noted by an asterisk (*).

------------

URNT11 KNHC 171529
97779 15294 60134 64100 30400 36017 09088 /3131
RMK AF304 0404A DEAN OB 21
SWS = 013KTS

Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 17th day of the month at 15:29Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last digit of aircraft registration number is 304)
Storm Number: 04
Storm Name: Dean (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 21

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Friday, 15:29Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 13.4N 64.1W
Location: 276 miles (445 km) to the NE (43°) from Caracas, Venezuela.
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In the clear
Pressure Altitude: 3,040 meters
Flight Level Wind: From 360° at 17 knots (From the N at ~ 19.5 mph)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: 9°C
Flight Level Dew Point: 8°C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Shower(s) (continuous or intermittent precipitation - from cumuliform clouds)
700 mb Surface Altitude: 3,131 geopotential meters

Remarks: SWS 013KTS

-------

URNT15 KNHC 171541
AF304 0404A DEAN HDOB 39 20070817
153400 1335N 06358W 6971 03155 0081 +072 +072 339009 012 034 010 00
153430 1337N 06357W 6977 03146 0086 +071 +071 328012 013 037 040 03
153500 1338N 06356W 6978 03145 0092 +064 +064 315017 021 046 019 05
153530 1339N 06354W 6975 03147 9990 +059 +999 350013 015 046 025 01
153600 1340N 06353W 6969 03156 0068 +077 +077 354012 013 035 025 03
153630 1342N 06352W 6975 03147 0052 +095 +094 349012 013 021 006 00
153700 1343N 06351W 6974 03152 0059 +089 +089 357011 013 019 006 00
153730 1344N 06350W 6975 03146 0059 +089 +089 001012 013 017 006 00
153800 1345N 06348W 6977 03143 0058 +088 +085 357013 013 016 005 00
153830 1346N 06347W 6975 03143 0058 +087 +080 359013 014 018 006 00
153900 1348N 06346W 6973 03146 0056 +088 +080 358013 014 020 005 00
153930 1349N 06345W 6972 03149 0050 +093 +076 355015 017 021 005 00
154000 1350N 06343W 6975 03142 0050 +093 +069 354017 017 022 005 00
154030 1351N 06342W 6975 03142 0044 +097 +058 349017 017 023 005 00
154100 1353N 06341W 6976 03141 0046 +094 +070 348017 017 024 005 00
154130 1354N 06340W 6973 03142 0045 +092 +075 340015 016 023 006 00
154200 1355N 06339W 6975 03138 0045 +093 +076 346012 013 027 006 00
154230 1356N 06337W 6974 03138 0037 +097 +079 351014 014 029 005 00
154300 1357N 06336W 6975 03133 0042 +090 +090 352015 015 030 006 00
154330 1359N 06335W 6975 03131 0046 +085 +085 335015 015 032 008 00

Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 17th day of the month at 15:41Z
Date: August 17, 2007
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last digit of aircraft registration number is 304)
Storm Number: 04
Storm Name: Dean (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 39
Time (Z) / Coordinates / Acft. Static Air Press. / Acft. Geo. Hgt. / Extrap. Sfc. Press. / Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) / Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind / SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind / SFMR Rain Rate
15:34:00 13.58N 63.97W 697.1 mb 3,155 m 1008.1 mb From 339° (NNW) at 9 kts (10.3 mph) 12 kts (~ 13.8 mph) 34 kts 10 mm/hr
15:34:30 13.62N 63.95W 697.7 mb 3,146 m 1008.6 mb From 328° (NNW) at 12 kts (13.8 mph) 13 kts (~ 14.9 mph) 37 kts* 40 mm/hr*
15:35:00 13.63N 63.93W 697.8 mb 3,145 m 1009.2 mb From 315° (NW) at 17 kts (19.5 mph) 21 kts (~ 24.1 mph) 46 kts* 19 mm/hr*
15:35:30 13.65N 63.90W 697.5 mb 3,147 m - From 350° (N) at 13 kts (14.9 mph) 15 kts (~ 17.2 mph) 46 kts 25 mm/hr
15:36:00 13.67N 63.88W 696.9 mb 3,156 m 1006.8 mb From 354° (N) at 12 kts (13.8 mph) 13 kts (~ 14.9 mph) 35 kts* 25 mm/hr*
15:36:30 13.70N 63.87W 697.5 mb 3,147 m 1005.2 mb From 349° (N) at 12 kts (13.8 mph) 13 kts (~ 14.9 mph) 21 kts 6 mm/hr
15:37:00 13.72N 63.85W 697.4 mb 3,152 m 1005.9 mb From 357° (N) at 11 kts (12.6 mph) 13 kts (~ 14.9 mph) 19 kts 6 mm/hr
15:37:30 13.73N 63.83W 697.5 mb 3,146 m 1005.9 mb From 1° (N) at 12 kts (13.8 mph) 13 kts (~ 14.9 mph) 17 kts 6 mm/hr
15:38:00 13.75N 63.80W 697.7 mb 3,143 m 1005.8 mb From 357° (N) at 13 kts (14.9 mph) 13 kts (~ 14.9 mph) 16 kts 5 mm/hr
15:38:30 13.77N 63.78W 697.5 mb 3,143 m 1005.8 mb From 359° (N) at 13 kts (14.9 mph) 14 kts (~ 16.1 mph) 18 kts 6 mm/hr
15:39:00 13.80N 63.77W 697.3 mb 3,146 m 1005.6 mb From 358° (N) at 13 kts (14.9 mph) 14 kts (~ 16.1 mph) 20 kts 5 mm/hr
15:39:30 13.82N 63.75W 697.2 mb 3,149 m 1005.0 mb From 355° (N) at 15 kts (17.2 mph) 17 kts (~ 19.5 mph) 21 kts 5 mm/hr
15:40:00 13.83N 63.72W 697.5 mb 3,142 m 1005.0 mb From 354° (N) at 17 kts (19.5 mph) 17 kts (~ 19.5 mph) 22 kts 5 mm/hr
15:40:30 13.85N 63.70W 697.5 mb 3,142 m 1004.4 mb From 349° (N) at 17 kts (19.5 mph) 17 kts (~ 19.5 mph) 23 kts 5 mm/hr
15:41:00 13.88N 63.68W 697.6 mb 3,141 m 1004.6 mb From 348° (NNW/N) at 17 kts (19.5 mph) 17 kts (~ 19.5 mph) 24 kts 5 mm/hr
15:41:30 13.90N 63.67W 697.3 mb 3,142 m 1004.5 mb From 340° (NNW) at 15 kts (17.2 mph) 16 kts (~ 18.4 mph) 23 kts 6 mm/hr
15:42:00 13.92N 63.65W 697.5 mb 3,138 m 1004.5 mb From 346° (NNW) at 12 kts (13.8 mph) 13 kts (~ 14.9 mph) 27 kts 6 mm/hr
15:42:30 13.93N 63.62W 697.4 mb 3,138 m 1003.7 mb From 351° (N) at 14 kts (16.1 mph) 14 kts (~ 16.1 mph) 29 kts 5 mm/hr
15:43:00 13.95N 63.60W 697.5 mb 3,133 m 1004.2 mb From 352° (N) at 15 kts (17.2 mph) 15 kts (~ 17.2 mph) 30 kts 6 mm/hr
15:43:30 13.98N 63.58W 697.5 mb 3,131 m 1004.6 mb From 335° (NNW) at 15 kts (17.2 mph) 15 kts (~ 17.2 mph) 32 kts 8 mm/hr
At 15:34:00Z (first observation), the observation was 362 miles (582 km) to the SSE (157°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
At 15:43:30Z (last observation), the observation was 348 miles (560 km) to the SSE (151°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).

Map this message:
http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/p ... .60c-63.58

Suspect values are noted by an asterisk (*).

--------------

URNT15 KNHC 171551
AF304 0404A DEAN HDOB 40 20070817
154400 1400N 06334W 6967 03140 0071 +063 +063 330013 014 032 009 03
154430 1401N 06332W 6978 03122 0067 +065 +065 344017 018 032 043 03
154500 1402N 06331W 6975 03128 0063 +069 +061 347015 015 028 009 00
154530 1404N 06330W 6976 03123 0030 +092 +092 338015 016 029 006 01
154600 1405N 06329W 6969 03131 0024 +094 +094 330014 015 028 006 00
154630 1406N 06327W 6975 03122 0019 +097 +089 327016 016 029 006 00
154700 1407N 06326W 6975 03121 0022 +094 +091 324017 018 029 006 00
154730 1409N 06325W 6975 03120 0025 +091 +090 322016 017 028 006 00
154800 1410N 06323W 6976 03116 0041 +077 +077 324017 018 030 007 00
154830 1411N 06322W 6969 03126 0038 +077 +077 334024 026 033 006 00
154900 1412N 06321W 6973 03116 0026 +083 +083 330024 025 034 006 00
154930 1413N 06320W 6976 03108 0016 +088 +088 324023 024 034 006 00
155000 1415N 06319W 6975 03105 0012 +088 +088 321023 024 034 006 00
155030 1416N 06317W 6977 03099 0007 +089 +089 319025 026 034 006 00
155100 1417N 06316W 6980 03090 0001 +090 +090 320028 029 035 007 00
155130 1418N 06315W 6973 03097 9998 +090 +086 323032 034 037 006 00
155200 1420N 06313W 6977 03083 9991 +090 +088 324033 034 036 005 00
155230 1421N 06312W 6977 03079 9988 +088 +088 319033 033 037 007 00
155300 1422N 06311W 6972 03081 9985 +085 +085 319035 036 039 006 00
155330 1423N 06310W 6974 03070 9968 +092 +088 308036 037 043 043 03

Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 17th day of the month at 15:51Z
Date: August 17, 2007
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last digit of aircraft registration number is 304)
Storm Number: 04
Storm Name: Dean (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 40
Time (Z) / Coordinates / Acft. Static Air Press. / Acft. Geo. Hgt. / Extrap. Sfc. Press. / Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) / Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind / SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind / SFMR Rain Rate
15:44:00 14.00N 63.57W 696.7 mb 3,140 m 1007.1 mb From 330° (NNW) at 13 kts (14.9 mph) 14 kts (~ 16.1 mph) 32 kts* 9 mm/hr*
15:44:30 14.02N 63.53W 697.8 mb 3,122 m 1006.7 mb From 344° (NNW) at 17 kts (19.5 mph) 18 kts (~ 20.7 mph) 32 kts* 43 mm/hr*
15:45:00 14.03N 63.52W 697.5 mb 3,128 m 1006.3 mb From 347° (NNW) at 15 kts (17.2 mph) 15 kts (~ 17.2 mph) 28 kts 9 mm/hr
15:45:30 14.07N 63.50W 697.6 mb 3,123 m 1003.0 mb From 338° (NNW) at 15 kts (17.2 mph) 16 kts (~ 18.4 mph) 29 kts 6 mm/hr
15:46:00 14.08N 63.48W 696.9 mb 3,131 m 1002.4 mb From 330° (NNW) at 14 kts (16.1 mph) 15 kts (~ 17.2 mph) 28 kts 6 mm/hr
15:46:30 14.10N 63.45W 697.5 mb 3,122 m 1001.9 mb From 327° (NNW) at 16 kts (18.4 mph) 16 kts (~ 18.4 mph) 29 kts 6 mm/hr
15:47:00 14.12N 63.43W 697.5 mb 3,121 m 1002.2 mb From 324° (NW) at 17 kts (19.5 mph) 18 kts (~ 20.7 mph) 29 kts 6 mm/hr
15:47:30 14.15N 63.42W 697.5 mb 3,120 m 1002.5 mb From 322° (NW) at 16 kts (18.4 mph) 17 kts (~ 19.5 mph) 28 kts 6 mm/hr
15:48:00 14.17N 63.38W 697.6 mb 3,116 m 1004.1 mb From 324° (NW) at 17 kts (19.5 mph) 18 kts (~ 20.7 mph) 30 kts 7 mm/hr
15:48:30 14.18N 63.37W 696.9 mb 3,126 m 1003.8 mb From 334° (NNW) at 24 kts (27.6 mph) 26 kts (~ 29.9 mph) 33 kts 6 mm/hr
15:49:00 14.20N 63.35W 697.3 mb 3,116 m 1002.6 mb From 330° (NNW) at 24 kts (27.6 mph) 25 kts (~ 28.7 mph) 34 kts 6 mm/hr
15:49:30 14.22N 63.33W 697.6 mb 3,108 m 1001.6 mb From 324° (NW) at 23 kts (26.4 mph) 24 kts (~ 27.6 mph) 34 kts 6 mm/hr
15:50:00 14.25N 63.32W 697.5 mb 3,105 m 1001.2 mb From 321° (NW) at 23 kts (26.4 mph) 24 kts (~ 27.6 mph) 34 kts 6 mm/hr
15:50:30 14.27N 63.28W 697.7 mb 3,099 m 1000.7 mb From 319° (NW) at 25 kts (28.7 mph) 26 kts (~ 29.9 mph) 34 kts 6 mm/hr
15:51:00 14.28N 63.27W 698.0 mb 3,090 m 1000.1 mb From 320° (NW) at 28 kts (32.2 mph) 29 kts (~ 33.3 mph) 35 kts 7 mm/hr
15:51:30 14.30N 63.25W 697.3 mb 3,097 m 999.8 mb From 323° (NW) at 32 kts (36.8 mph) 34 kts (~ 39.1 mph) 37 kts 6 mm/hr
15:52:00 14.33N 63.22W 697.7 mb 3,083 m 999.1 mb From 324° (NW) at 33 kts (37.9 mph) 34 kts (~ 39.1 mph) 36 kts 5 mm/hr
15:52:30 14.35N 63.20W 697.7 mb 3,079 m 998.8 mb From 319° (NW) at 33 kts (37.9 mph) 33 kts (~ 37.9 mph) 37 kts 7 mm/hr
15:53:00 14.37N 63.18W 697.2 mb 3,081 m 998.5 mb From 319° (NW) at 35 kts (40.2 mph) 36 kts (~ 41.4 mph) 39 kts 6 mm/hr
15:53:30 14.38N 63.17W 697.4 mb 3,070 m 996.8 mb From 308° (NW) at 36 kts (41.4 mph) 37 kts (~ 42.5 mph) 43 kts* 43 mm/hr*
At 15:44:00Z (first observation), the observation was 347 miles (559 km) to the SSE (151°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
At 15:53:30Z (last observation), the observation was 338 miles (545 km) to the SE (145°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).

Map this message:
http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/p ... .18c-63.17

Suspect values are noted by an asterisk (*).

[jasons2k]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/150024.shtml?5day#contents

Latest NHC extropolated path is aimed at Brownsville. Discuss

Conservative call IMO, but that's expected

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/150024.shtml?5day#contents

Latest NHC extropolated path is aimed at Brownsville. Discuss

Anyone along TX/LA coast should be preparing their
plans for a major hurricane. Not that I'm saying it will hit a specific city...
but it is better to prepare early.
This could easily be a category 4-5 in the gulf. And
large sized too.

[superdeluxe]

Odds of Dry Air in the GOM?