TD Six-E=TS Cosme=TD Cosme in EPAC,CPAC

[HURAKAN]

Ladies and gentlemen, the trip is almost over, please don't leave any belongings and Cosme, don't live ex-TD #5 behind.

Thank you!!!

[Chacor]

On the express train. Next stop, Remnant Low-ville.

[Chacor]

Down to 40 kt but amazingly the forecast calls for TS strength through 96 hours.

000
WTPZ21 KNHC 171453
TCMEP1
TROPICAL STORM COSME FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062007
1500 UTC TUE JUL 17 2007

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 134.4W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 75SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 75SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 134.4W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 133.8W

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 15.4N 136.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 15.8N 138.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 16.2N 141.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.7N 143.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.0N 150.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 19.0N 155.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 19.0N 160.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 134.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI

[HURAKAN]

I don't believe Cosme will last 96 more hours as a tropical storm.

[Chacor]

WTPZ21 KNHC 171457
TCMEP1
TROPICAL STORM COSME FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062007
1500 UTC TUE JUL 17 2007

..CORRECTED FOR INITIAL PRESSURE AND 12 HOUR INTENSITY...

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 134.4W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 75SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 75SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 134.4W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 133.8W

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 15.4N 136.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 30SW 50NW.

(the rest unchanged bits are snipped)

[Chacor]

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 171458
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062007
800 AM PDT TUE JUL 17 2007

DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS...BOTH MICROWAVE AND CONVENTIONAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS QUICKLY
DETERIORATED. TRMM AND AMSR-E OVERPASSES FROM 1018 UTC AND 1056
UTC RESPECTIVELY SHOW THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS EXPOSED WITH THE
REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED ABOUT 60-75 N MI TO THE WEST.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN CONSERVATIVELY LOWERED TO 40 KT.
THIS IS MUCH LOWER THAN SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...WHICH ARE
BEING CONSTRAINED DUE TO DVORAK WEAKENING RULES.

BASED ON THE 1018 UTC TRMM PASS...THE CENTER WAS RELOCATED TO THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST AND THE MOTION...ALBEIT UNCERTAIN...IS NOW 280/10.
THE FORECAST TRACK REASONING REMAINS VIRTUALLY THE SAME...COSME IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
THROUGH FIVE DAYS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG RIDGE TO THE
NORTH. ONCE AGAIN THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS CLUSTERED...AND THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST BRINGS COSME NEAR OR OVER THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS IN 4-5 DAYS.

BOTH COOL WATERS AND EASTERLY SHEAR ARE ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE TO
INFLUENCE THE CYCLONE'S INTENSITY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE ACTUALLY DISSIPATES COSME IN TWO
DAYS...WHILE THE GFDL AND HWRF HOLD ON TO THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL
STORM THROUGH DAY FIVE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST MAINTAINS
COSME AS A WEAK TROPICAL STORM THROUGH 4 DAYS. HOWEVER IF THE
CURRENT RAPID WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES...SOME ADDITIONAL DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENTS WILL NEED TO BE MADE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/1500Z 15.1N 134.4W 40 KT
12HR VT 18/0000Z 15.4N 136.1W 35 KT
24HR VT 18/1200Z 15.8N 138.4W 35 KT
36HR VT 19/0000Z 16.2N 141.0W 35 KT
48HR VT 19/1200Z 16.7N 143.9W 35 KT
72HR VT 20/1200Z 18.0N 150.0W 35 KT
96HR VT 21/1200Z 19.0N 155.5W 35 KT
120HR VT 22/1200Z 19.0N 160.0W 30 KT

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI

[Chacor]

Nearly a naked swirl now. Surely not enough for it to remain a TS at the next advisory.

[Cyclenall]

Cosme weakened as fast as it strengthened. The funny thing is, I had a dream that Cosme weakened to 45 or 40 knots at 11:00 am EST (sad, I'm dreaming about Epac tropical cyclones ). I knew that Cosme wouldn't stay a hurricane another 12 hours or even 6 hours.

Now the NHC is showing in the discussion that TS Cosme will remain a TS through 96 hours. I'm willing to say that is not going to happen and Cosme would become a remnant low in 18 hours or less. A weakening trend like this means the environment is not being a nice guy this time.

The images right now of Cosme look worse then terrible. I've never seen a 40 knot TS look like that. I've seen tropical waves look 4X better then that. Convection is weakening by the frame too. You can clearly see the LLC though, naked and hanging on!

[HURAKAN]

[Andrew92]

It was fun while it lasted! And hey, we now can say that there has been a hurricane in 2007. Fortunately, it was weak and stayed out over open waters.

-Andrew92

[AnnularCane]

Cosme, what have you done with your clothes?

Not a bad looking naked swirl though.

[HURAKAN]

BE AWARE: THE END IS NEAR!!!

[Chacor]

Cosme, what have you done with your clothes?

HURAKAN: Don't think it'll even survive past the next advisory, to be honest. No more deep convection...

[Andrew92]

tightly-swirled circulation with a few thunderstorms confined to
the southwestern quadrant of the cyclone. A blend of data T-numbers
and current intensity yielded 45 kt from TAFB and 35 kt from SAB.
The 6-hour averaged automated Dvorak intensity estimates from
uw-cimms ranged from 25 to 30 kt. Compromising on the above...the
initial intensity is set at 35 kt and this could be generous.

Cosme is currently moving on a general westward track and a bit
faster at 275/12. The primary steering mechanism remains the ridge
to the north...and most of the model guidance maintains the ridge
through the next 5 days. The official forecast track follows this
reasoning and takes Cosme on a general west to west-northwestward
track. If the system continues to spin down... however...a more
west to west-southwest motion could occur.

Cosme remains over 25c waters and under the influence of easterly
shear. The SHIPS model dissipates the cyclone in 36 to 48 hours
due primarily to persistence...while the GFDL maintains it as a
tropical storm through day 5. The official intensity forecast is a
blend of the two solutions. If the cyclone survives the next
three days and stays south of the forecast track...the waters warm
back up which could allow for regeneration.


Forecast positions and Max winds

initial 17/2100z 14.8n 135.4w 35 kt
12hr VT 18/0600z 15.0n 137.2w 30 kt
24hr VT 18/1800z 15.5n 139.7w 30 kt
36hr VT 19/0600z 16.1n 142.6w 30 kt
48hr VT 19/1800z 16.7n 145.7w 30 kt
72hr VT 20/1800z 18.0n 152.0w 25 kt
96hr VT 21/1800z 18.5n 156.5w 25 kt...dissipating
120hr VT 22/1800z 19.0n 161.0w 20 kt...remnant low

$$
forecaster Mainelli


Shocking. He's still a TS!

[CrazyC83]

I'd say he is down to a TD. Definitely not dead though. No need to get out the or yet.

[Cyclenall]

I'm surprised at the forecast again:

Forecast positions and Max winds

initial 17/2100z 14.8n 135.4w 35 kt
12hr VT 18/0600z 15.0n 137.2w 30 kt
24hr VT 18/1800z 15.5n 139.7w 30 kt
36hr VT 19/0600z 16.1n 142.6w 30 kt
48hr VT 19/1800z 16.7n 145.7w 30 kt
72hr VT 20/1800z 18.0n 152.0w 25 kt
96hr VT 21/1800z 18.5n 156.5w 25 kt...dissipating
120hr VT 22/1800z 19.0n 161.0w 20 kt...remnant low

I don't understand why the forecast calls for a TD through 72 hours. This is going to all happen within 12-18 hours. The models do this quite often, so I wouldn't trust the GFDL this time on that.

[Andrew92]

I'm actually trying hard not to use the door or the can right now. Maybe later in the season when nuisance storms develop they'll start coming. But for now, so far so good.

Cosme will just get a standard see-ya or buh-bye or whatever I feel like saying.

-Andrew92

[Hurricanehink]

There's a burst of convection, and it looks like Cosme is still alive out there.

[Chacor]

Looks like diurnal maximum is nearing or occurring right now... nice burst of convection SW of centre.

[cycloneye]

650
WTPZ41 KNHC 180231
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062007
800 PM PDT TUE JUL 17 2007

WHILE COSME CONTINUES TO UNDERGO EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...
CONVECTION HAS MADE A COMEBACK THIS EVENING WITH TOPS TO -80C IN A
CLUSTER TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB. HOWEVER...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 35 KT UNTIL THE CONVECTION SHOWS SOME
PERSISTENCE. AN UPCOMING QUIKSCAT OVERPASS MAY PROVIDE BETTER
INFORMATION ON THE ACTUAL INTENSITY OF COSME.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/11. A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF COSME REMAINS THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM. THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN THE RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 5
DAYS...WHICH SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
WESTWARD. THE GFS...NOGAPS...UKMET...AND ECMWF NOW CALL MORE A
MORE WESTERLY TRACK THAN THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS...WHILE THE GFDL CALLS
FOR A TRACK THROUGH THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. IN DEFERENCE TO THE
GLOBAL MODELS...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE
SOUTH. THE NEW TRACK IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE NOGAPS AND THE
CCON CONSENSUS MODEL.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS
FORECAST THE SHEAR TO DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND AFTER
THAT TIME THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER GRADUALLY INCREASING SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. IF THE CURRENT CONVECTION PERSISTS...THIS
COULD ALLOW COSME TO MAINTAIN ITSELF OR EVEN SLIGHTLY RE-STRENGTHEN.
ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ONLY MODEL THAT FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO AT
THE MOMENT IS THE GFDL. AFTER 72 HR...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS
FORECAST TO FORM NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK... WHICH COULD CAUSE
WESTERLY SHEAR. HOWEVER...THE STRONGEST SHEAR IS NORTH OF THE
FORECAST TRACK...AND ANY MOTION SOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD
ALLOW COSME TO MISS THAT AREA. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...THE
LOW-CONFIDENCE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...ASSUMING THAT THE CURRENT CONVECTION WILL NOT PERSIST
AND CALLING FOR COSME TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE DURING THE
NEXT 4-5 DAYS. THIS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 18/0300Z 15.1N 136.6W 35 KT
12HR VT 18/1200Z 15.2N 138.4W 35 KT
24HR VT 19/0000Z 15.6N 140.9W 30 KT
36HR VT 19/1200Z 16.2N 143.6W 30 KT
48HR VT 20/0000Z 16.7N 146.6W 30 KT
72HR VT 21/0000Z 17.5N 152.5W 25 KT
96HR VT 22/0000Z 18.0N 157.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT 23/0000Z 18.5N 161.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Still hanging on as a storm.