Tropical Storm GABRIELLE (ATL): Global & BAM Models

[x-y-no]

The BAMs and NOGAPs are showing about a 7 degree longitude move toward the west starting in about 48 hrs. The key is how far this system moves east and/or south between now and then - if it stays around 75W then the entire east coast from FL to Hatteras could be in the cyclone LF zone.

it seems to be stationary right now... could be a slightward drift, but in the visible seems to be stationary to me




Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

Is "slightward" closer to "poleward" or "equatorward"?

Sorry ... I couldn't resist ... (Jan looks ashamed)

[vacanechaser]

The BAMs and NOGAPs are showing about a 7 degree longitude move toward the west starting in about 48 hrs. The key is how far this system moves east and/or south between now and then - if it stays around 75W then the entire east coast from FL to Hatteras could be in the cyclone LF zone.

it seems to be stationary right now... could be a slightward drift, but in the visible seems to be stationary to me




Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

Is "slightward" closer to "poleward" or "equatorward"?

Sorry ... I couldn't resist ... (Jan looks ashamed)

lol.... you should look ashamed!!! my fingers are not working, or was that my brain!!!!


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[ronjon]

Looking over the BAMs more closely - the shallow and medium BAM basically stall the system after 8 PM tonight with the shallow moving it west from there and the medium by 36 hrs. The BAM deep wisks the system out to around 70W in 48 hrs and then starts the west movement. So, really I think we'll know a lot more about where she will go by its location in the next 12-24 hrs.

[vacanechaser]

Looking over the BAMs more closely - the shallow and medium BAM basically stall the system after 8 PM tonight with the shallow moving it west from there and the medium by 36 hrs. The BAM deep wisks the system out to around 70W in 48 hrs and then starts the west movement. So, really I think we'll know a lot more about where she will go by its location in the next 12-24 hrs.

the only thing is, if i am correct, the bams are horrible models in the mid-latitudes... i think the globals are gonna do better in this situation..


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[windstorm99]

[Meso]

The 12z CMC

[chris_fit]

I don't care who you are, that model map is a complete mess. All the way from Florida, to Cape Cod, to Bermuda. Yuck!

[BensonTCwatcher]

The 12z CMC

Dang good thing this the CMC, can't see any daylight between those isobars. What is that <980mb??

Dooh

[Brent]

So... it could go north, south, east, or west.

[Derek Ortt]

DO NOT DISCOUNT THE CMC

It's solution is not that unreasonable, especially if this gets underneath a UH once the UL passes by

[southerngale]

Could y'all please upload the sfwmd.gov maps before posting?

[BensonTCwatcher]

A stalled system here can do just that, hang around, get better organized and then move when a steering feature moves it. One that is troubling is the guidance of the globals ( forget all the tropicals) is lining up on a pretty significant cyclone. The track is secondary at this point given the progged motion and synoptics near term. Folks in NC and SC may have this on thier mind in 24 hours. As of today, even the local mets were going with a subtropical ho-hum system moving offshore. We'll see if we hear a different tune this evening. My guess is yes.

[Recurve]

Is it just me or is anyone else seeing the Felix plots from SFWMD not the invest.
Maybe I have to clear my cache. Or my head.

[TampaFl]

Is it just me or is anyone else seeing the Felix plots from SFWMD not the invest.
Maybe I have to clear my cache. Or my head.

Link: http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_99.gif

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

According to that GFDL, UKMET, and ECMWF (from another thread- see other thread on 99L),
landfall in north carolina.

[CrazyC83]

That CMC looks like about 945-955mb.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1903 UTC TUE SEP 4 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992007) 20070904 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070904 1800 070905 0600 070905 1800 070906 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 29.3N 74.3W 29.2N 73.7W 29.1N 73.2W 28.4N 73.2W
BAMD 29.3N 74.3W 29.3N 72.3W 30.2N 70.5W 31.3N 68.7W
BAMM 29.3N 74.3W 29.1N 73.2W 29.4N 72.4W 29.2N 72.4W
LBAR 29.3N 74.3W 29.2N 72.7W 29.9N 71.5W 30.8N 70.3W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 39KTS 45KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 39KTS 45KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070906 1800 070907 1800 070908 1800 070909 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 27.6N 73.8W 27.5N 74.2W 31.0N 73.4W 35.7N 72.6W
BAMD 32.1N 67.5W 33.4N 68.5W 35.6N 70.4W 39.1N 69.9W
BAMM 28.9N 73.2W 28.9N 75.7W 30.6N 77.4W 33.6N 77.4W
LBAR 32.0N 68.6W 33.9N 63.4W 35.8N 59.6W 35.0N 58.4W
SHIP 52KTS 64KTS 69KTS 64KTS
DSHP 52KTS 64KTS 69KTS 64KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 29.3N LONCUR = 74.3W DIRCUR = 100DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 29.5N LONM12 = 76.3W DIRM12 = 106DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 30.3N LONM24 = 78.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 210NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[GeneratorPower]

That CMC track would sure keep Mark Sudduth's commute time down, eh? Haha.

[southerngale]

Chad, thanks for uploading it with Imageshack. Hopefully, everyone else will from now on, so we can all see it.

[Meso]

12z EURO