Tropical Storm JERRY- Discussion & Images

[Coredesat]

No, it won't. ATCF best track file has 30kt Subtropical Depression 11.

AL, 11, 2007092306, , BEST, 0, 362N, 461W, 30, 1007, SD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 150, 25, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ELEVEN

Also, curved banding does not always an eye make, especially when you have an exposed low-level center like this system does.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It has become less organized the last hour. As the convection has moved into a band to the south. In yes curve bands can form into a eye...But not this time.

[Brent]

[Chacor]

Subtropical cyclones forming: 4
Systems that formed as tropical cyclones: 7

What's the record for subtropical cyclones in a season? We're already at 4 (Andrea, Gabrielle, Ten, Eleven).

[HURAKAN]

23/0600 UTC 36.1N 46.3W ST2.5/2.5 95L

Dvorak continues to say tropical storm force winds. Next Quikscat should be decisive.

[Chacor]

23/0600 UTC 36.1N 46.3W ST2.5/2.5 95L

Dvorak continues to say tropical storm force winds. Next Quikscat should be decisive.

Not Dvorak. ST classifications is the Hebert-Poteat system.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#DVOR

[HURAKAN]

[Cyclone1]

Subtropical cyclones forming: 4
Systems that formed as tropical cyclones: 7

What's the record for subtropical cyclones in a season? We're already at 4 (Andrea, Gabrielle, Ten, Eleven).

1976, and 2007 at 4.

[Chacor]

AL, 11, 2007092312, , BEST, 0, 360N, 463W, 35, 1004, SS, 34, NEQ, 60, 90, 90, 75, 1014, 150, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, ELEVEN, D,

SubTS Jerry.

[cycloneye]

610
WHXX01 KWBC 231315
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1315 UTC SUN SEP 23 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE JERRY (AL112007) 20070923 1200 UTC

[GeneratorPower]

Personally, I'm glad the name Jerry gets burned on a no-account storm like this one. Jerry isn't a good name to have on the nightly news for 10 years like Katrina. No offense to everyone named Jerry. I thought the same thing when they replaced Dennis with Don. Don? Come on. Please don't make us hear about the levees breaking with Don for 500 years.

[Cyclone1]

Personally, I'm glad the name Jerry gets burned on a no-account storm like this one. Jerry isn't a good name to have on the nightly news for 10 years like Katrina. No offense to everyone named Jerry. I thought the same thing when they replaced Dennis with Don. Don? Come on. Please don't make us hear about the levees breaking with Don for 500 years.

What would you prefer, Hurricane AAAGH?

[Evil Jeremy]

Jeremy at 11

[Cyclone1]

Jeremy at 11

You wish.

[Evil Jeremy]

11L.JERRY

on NRL

[Chacor]

Upgraded.

047
WTNT41 KNHC 231428
TCDAT1
SUBTROPICAL STORM JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112007
1100 AM EDT SUN SEP 23 2007

AN 0807 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE
CIRCULATION ARE AT LEAST 35 KT AND SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS GIVE A
SUBTROPICAL T-NUMBER OF 2.5 USING THE HEBERT-POTEAT METHOD. THE
SYSTEM IS THEREFORE UPGRADED TO SUBTROPICAL STORM JERRY. THE
CYCLONE LACKS A WELL-DEFINED INNER CORE WITH MULTIPLE LOW-CLOUD
SWIRLS NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER. THERE IS A NARROW WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR THE SYSTEM TO ACQUIRE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND
TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER. HOWEVER...COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AND INCREASING SHEAR WILL PROBABLY LIMIT THE INTENSIFICATION
PROCESS. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A LARGE AND VIGOROUS EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE OVERTAKING JERRY WITHIN 48 HOURS...SO THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY
TO BECOME ABSORBED BY THIS LARGER SYSTEM IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE NET MOTION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AS
JERRY IS STILL EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROADER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION.
HOWEVER...AS A STRONG 500 MB TROUGH MOVES OFF THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...THE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
STEERING CURRENT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE. THIS SHOULD PULL JERRY
TOWARD HIGHER LATITUDES BEFORE IT BECOMES ABSORBED. THIS IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST...AND ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE TRACK GUIDANCE SUITE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/1500Z 36.0N 46.3W 35 KT
12HR VT 24/0000Z 37.3N 45.8W 40 KT...TROPICAL
24HR VT 24/1200Z 39.7N 44.0W 45 KT...TROPICAL
36HR VT 25/0000Z 44.0N 40.5W 45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 25/1200Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[yzerfan]

Wonder if anyone at the NHC can sneak a reference to Tom in the same way that EPAC Alvin got a Chipmunks shout out earlier this year. They do seem to get a little silly with some of the fish storms.

[JonathanBelles]

Wonder if anyone at the NHC can sneak a reference to Tom in the same way that EPAC Alvin got a Chipmunks shout out earlier this year. They do seem to get a little silly with some of the fish storms.

I was thinking more along the lines of "Jerry! Jerry! Jerry!" as in Jerry Springer. lol

[Buck]

FINALLY A NORTHERN ATLANTIC STORM!

[Brent]

FINALLY A NORTHERN ATLANTIC STORM!

and a male storm that is not a hurricane hitting land! Dean, Felix, and Humberto all were.