CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Sabanic]

Very, very possible, but also depends on what side of the storm you are on, and how fast it is moving. Here at my house in West Mobile, 30 miles inland, we had 80 mph winds from Ivan, and the eye went ashore 30 miles to our east.

[Ivanhater]

Gfs turns it due west after hitting Jamaica..hmm

[stormchazer]

It could be a 2-for-1 if it catches the Yucatan. The main point in my opinion is it appears to be threatening the Western GOM much as the models have been predicting. Of course that can always change.

[Brent]

This is going to be a repeat of the last, what, 10 runs?

I don't think a strong system will take this track.

[tolakram]

More trouble with dry air (or shear, not sure):

[Stormcenter]

Very encouraging run.

[HollynLA]

Very encouraging run.

yes it is, but my question is, what would steer the storm due west after Jamaica?

[DESTRUCTION5]

This is going to be a repeat of the last, what, 10 runs?

I don't think a strong system will take this track.

Friggin Model is wacked..Keeps in Carribean 3+ days

[weatherguru18]

KTRK (ABC 13) saying that Galveston will decide Sunday if going to emergency mode is necessary. Also at noon today the City of Houston will be holding a press conference live to discuss emergency preperations! You can see it live on abc13.com

[Javlin]

>>Yea but Dean may just be feeling a little weakness and then bend back W and in the long run still 275*-280* on movement.Lets see if continues for a while like I said it just an ob.Kevin

Absolutely. But my boy (shout out to) P-townballa got these numbers from the NHC advisories:

08/16 21 GMT 14.0 56.5 100 979 Hurricane
08/17 03 GMT 14.1 58.7 100 976 Hurricane
08/17 09 GMT 14.3 60.9 100 976 Hurricane
08/17 15 GMT 14.6 62.6 105 964 Hurricane
okay last four runs .1N 2.2W, .2N, 2.2W, .3N, 1.7W

So we've gone from a 1:22 slope to a 1:11 to 3:17 (+/- 1:5.667)

True WNW (which I think is 292.5 degrees based on memory) is 1:2 (or 2:1 depending on how you look at it). We're still tracking West of WNW at a 1:6/6:1 based on the official positions. Of course the key is averaging that out over 12, 18 or 24 hour periods. Just something to watch as time goes on.

Steve

Yea Steve the 3/17 is a 280* my point was just that it was going N of the last set of pts of course with the 11 they have readjusted them.The old second pt that I mentioned earlier was 15.3N and 67W so lets see if goes N of that just wondering if it plays with there map later at 5.kevin

[MSRobi911]

I "HEARD" on TWC that the wind thing broke...on 103 gust....how true that is I don't know on Matinique.

Mary

[Extremeweatherguy]

102 hrs.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_102l.gif

[Steve]

>>I hate asking questions like this, but a lot of people disagree with me when I say winds over 100mph are possible 70-80 miles inland during a Cat. 4 or 5 hurricane. What do you guys think one can expect 70-80 miles inland?

Tornado(e)s are more likely than 100 mph winds 80 miles inland, but you can still probably get hurricane force winds (not sure what the record is for that far inland). However, Hurricane Camille stayed a depression from north Mississippi until it exited the VA coast and caused massive/torrential flooding all the way up through the southeast.

JMO, one of the pros or historians might be able to provide better information on what you can expect. I think a lot of it has to do with the terrain too. For instance, if you live in SW FL and a storm barrels through the east coast and through the Everglades, you're not going to have much friction or slowdown from that. So clearly you could be 100 miles from landfall and still have strong hurricane winds.

Steve

[cycloneye]

102 hours surface

Yucatan

[Brent]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_096l.gif South of Cozumel

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_102l.gif Heading for the BOC

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The westward steering following jamacia is a result of
it anticipating high pressure to build over the SE
and force it westward.

[cycloneye]

102 hours 500

[CronkPSU]

Very encouraging run.

yes it is, but my question is, what would steer the storm due west after Jamaica?

a really big fan off the coast of Jamaica? this run was certainly....weird

[weatherguru18]

This just in as well...The Johnson Space Center here in Houston will be holding a meeting today to discuss preperations and the relocation of NASA employees.

[Sanibel]

WV synoptic shows Florida ULL regressing west along with expanding Atlantic ridge Dean is currently under. GFS accurate so far. Expect close to forecasted track movement and better likelihood Dean is picked up under US ridge. Jamaica should be in dread mode on this right now.

Wild card: Category 5 Dean in western Caribbean defies synoptic and turns more NW towards west GOM (Let's be frank here - Texas)...

Dean now looking mean with possible trochoidal wobbles. (Going for it)