CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[mf_dolphin]

Very encouraging run.

yes it is, but my question is, what would steer the storm due west after Jamaica?

If the low gets across the gulf ahead of Dean, the ridge may have time to build back in and force Dean back to the west. As usual it's the timing that's the key.

[Stormcenter]

Don't ignore this run folks. The GFS is no better or worse than the other NHC preferred models when comes to future tracks.

[Johnny]

Anyone recognize this track?

[Chris_in_Tampa]

URNT15 KNHC 171602
AF304 0404A DEAN HDOB 41 20070817
155400 1425N 06308W 6971 03066 9976 +077 +077 310040 044 045 048 03
155430 1426N 06307W 6983 03041 9940 +096 +096 310046 047 046 033 03
155500 1427N 06306W 6962 03054 9940 +086 +086 306043 046 049 044 03
155530 1428N 06304W 6969 03033 9929 +081 +081 310043 047 053 017 00
155600 1430N 06303W 6966 03019 9906 +084 +084 305054 059 058 009 03
155630 1431N 06302W 6974 02992 9872 +098 +098 305049 051 062 010 00
155700 1432N 06301W 6977 02968 9821 +118 +118 308053 054 063 007 00
155730 1433N 06259W 6969 02944 9765 +136 +119 299059 062 067 008 00
155800 1435N 06258W 6962 02923 9698 +167 +108 303061 065 070 006 03
155830 1436N 06257W 6956 02885 9654 +164 +120 299052 060 064 006 00
155900 1438N 06256W 6979 02831 9621 +172 +112 304029 038 045 006 03
155930 1439N 06255W 6981 02814 9601 +175 +103 310010 014 022 006 03
160000 1441N 06254W 6961 02829 9599 +172 +094 240003 007 020 006 00
160030 1442N 06252W 6980 02803 9618 +164 +093 191006 016 019 006 00
160100 1443N 06251W 6946 02838 9597 +164 +101 139023 026 029 006 00
160130 1445N 06250W 6946 02849 9596 +173 +099 143038 045 051 005 00
160200 1446N 06249W 6957 02855 9632 +151 +123 144063 075 086 005 00
160230 1447N 06247W 6970 02865 9691 +126 +126 151093 100 096 009 00
160300 1448N 06246W 6935 02951 9757 +109 +109 151113 115 096 010 03
160330 1450N 06244W 6942 02988 9826 +089 +089 147103 105 096 046 00

Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 17th day of the month at 16:02Z
Date: August 17, 2007
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last digit of aircraft registration number is 304)
Storm Number: 04
Storm Name: Dean (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 41
Time (Z) / Coordinates / Acft. Static Air Press. / Acft. Geo. Hgt. / Extrap. Sfc. Press. / Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) / Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind / SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind / SFMR Rain Rate
15:54:00 14.42N 63.13W 697.1 mb 3,066 m 997.6 mb From 310° (NW) at 40 kts (46.0 mph) 44 kts (~ 50.6 mph) 45 kts* 48 mm/hr*
15:54:30 14.43N 63.12W 698.3 mb 3,041 m 994.0 mb From 310° (NW) at 46 kts (52.9 mph) 47 kts (~ 54.0 mph) 46 kts* 33 mm/hr*
15:55:00 14.45N 63.10W 696.2 mb 3,054 m 994.0 mb From 306° (NW) at 43 kts (49.4 mph) 46 kts (~ 52.9 mph) 49 kts* 44 mm/hr*
15:55:30 14.47N 63.07W 696.9 mb 3,033 m 992.9 mb From 310° (NW) at 43 kts (49.4 mph) 47 kts (~ 54.0 mph) 53 kts 17 mm/hr
15:56:00 14.50N 63.05W 696.6 mb 3,019 m 990.6 mb From 305° (NW) at 54 kts (62.1 mph) 59 kts (~ 67.8 mph) 58 kts* 9 mm/hr*
15:56:30 14.52N 63.03W 697.4 mb 2,992 m 987.2 mb From 305° (NW) at 49 kts (56.3 mph) 51 kts (~ 58.6 mph) 62 kts 10 mm/hr
15:57:00 14.53N 63.02W 697.7 mb 2,968 m 982.1 mb From 308° (NW) at 53 kts (60.9 mph) 54 kts (~ 62.1 mph) 63 kts 7 mm/hr
15:57:30 14.55N 62.98W 696.9 mb 2,944 m 976.5 mb From 299° (WNW) at 59 kts (67.8 mph) 62 kts (~ 71.3 mph) 67 kts 8 mm/hr
15:58:00 14.58N 62.97W 696.2 mb 2,923 m 969.8 mb From 303° (WNW/NW) at 61 kts (70.1 mph) 65 kts (~ 74.8 mph) 70 kts* 6 mm/hr*
15:58:30 14.60N 62.95W 695.6 mb 2,885 m 965.4 mb From 299° (WNW) at 52 kts (59.8 mph) 60 kts (~ 69.0 mph) 64 kts 6 mm/hr
15:59:00 14.63N 62.93W 697.9 mb 2,831 m 962.1 mb From 304° (NW) at 29 kts (33.3 mph) 38 kts (~ 43.7 mph) 45 kts* 6 mm/hr*
15:59:30 14.65N 62.92W 698.1 mb 2,814 m 960.1 mb From 310° (NW) at 10 kts (11.5 mph) 14 kts (~ 16.1 mph) 22 kts* 6 mm/hr*
16:00:00 14.68N 62.90W 696.1 mb 2,829 m 959.9 mb From 240° (WSW) at 3 kts (3.4 mph) 7 kts (~ 8.0 mph) 20 kts 6 mm/hr
16:00:30 14.70N 62.87W 698.0 mb 2,803 m 961.8 mb From 191° (S/SSW) at 6 kts (6.9 mph) 16 kts (~ 18.4 mph) 19 kts 6 mm/hr
16:01:00 14.72N 62.85W 694.6 mb 2,838 m 959.7 mb From 139° (SE) at 23 kts (26.4 mph) 26 kts (~ 29.9 mph) 29 kts 6 mm/hr
16:01:30 14.75N 62.83W 694.6 mb 2,849 m 959.6 mb From 143° (SE) at 38 kts (43.7 mph) 45 kts (~ 51.7 mph) 51 kts 5 mm/hr
16:02:00 14.77N 62.82W 695.7 mb 2,855 m 963.2 mb From 144° (SE) at 63 kts (72.4 mph) 75 kts (~ 86.2 mph) 86 kts 5 mm/hr
16:02:30 14.78N 62.78W 697.0 mb 2,865 m 969.1 mb From 151° (SSE) at 93 kts (106.9 mph) 100 kts (~ 115.0 mph) 96 kts 9 mm/hr
16:03:00 14.80N 62.77W 693.5 mb 2,951 m 975.7 mb From 151° (SSE) at 113 kts (129.9 mph) 115 kts (~ 132.2 mph) 96 kts* 10 mm/hr*
16:03:30 14.83N 62.73W 694.2 mb 2,988 m 982.6 mb From 147° (SSE) at 103 kts (118.4 mph) 105 kts (~ 120.7 mph) 96 kts 46 mm/hr
At 15:54:00Z (first observation), the observation was 338 miles (543 km) to the SE (144°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
At 16:03:30Z (last observation), the observation was 95 miles (153 km) to the WSW (250°) from Roseau, Dominica.

Map this message:
http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/p ... .77c-62.73

Suspect values are noted by an asterisk (*).

---

Note: SFMR surface values not noted as being suspect.

[canegrl04]

Other models trend north while gfs stubbornly keeps west.Time will tell

[Stormcenter]

Very encouraging run.

yes it is, but my question is, what would steer the storm due west after Jamaica?

If the low gets across the gulf ahead of Dean, the ridge may have time to build back in and force Dean back to the west. As usual it's the timing that's the key.

Exactly it's all about timing.

[tomboudreau]

Is that the 1900 hurricane track????

[HURAKAN]

EYE BECOMING BETTER DEFINED:

[Extremeweatherguy]

This run is much faster than last night's 00z run.

[weatherguru18]

GREAT GALVESTON HURRICANE OF 1900!!! What do I win?!?!?!

[Extremeweatherguy]

Other models trend north while gfs stubbornly keeps west.Time will tell

Yeah, and considering I trust the GFDL much more than the GFS, I am still feeling uneasy.

[Wren]

From the 11:00AM NHC Hurricane Dean discussion

OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WITH A
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO THE NORTH DUE TO THE GFDL AND UKMET MODELS.
THE GFDL SOLUTION INSISTS ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL...BRINGING DEAN INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO
AS A STRONGER HURRICANE THAN INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT GUIDANCE FOR DAY 4 AND 5 IS MORE UNCERTAIN
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY.

Can someone please explain why the guidance is more uncertain today than yesterday. I'm new, and don't understand why this is.

[hicksta]

Ohhhh maaaaannn

Anyone recognize this track?

[Extremeweatherguy]

114 hrs.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_114l.gif

500mb.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_114l.gif

[cycloneye]

114 hours surface

BOC.

[Brent]

Mexico bound AGAIN

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_114l.gif

Weakness over TX/SW LA

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_114l.gif

[SkeetoBite]

I hate asking questions like this, but a lot of people disagree with me when I say winds over 100mph are possible 70-80 miles inland during a Cat. 4 or 5 hurricane. What do you guys think one can expect 70-80 miles inland?

Charley 2004 traveled over 100 miles across Florida and never went below a CAT 1, so yeah, it sure is possible!

http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/create ... &year=2004

[Extremeweatherguy]

check out the HUGE difference between the 0z and 12z run...

0z run: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_102l.gif

12z run: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_114l.gif

[RL3AO]

From the 11:00AM NHC Hurricane Dean discussion

OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WITH A
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO THE NORTH DUE TO THE GFDL AND UKMET MODELS.
THE GFDL SOLUTION INSISTS ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL...BRINGING DEAN INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO
AS A STRONGER HURRICANE THAN INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT GUIDANCE FOR DAY 4 AND 5 IS MORE UNCERTAIN
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY.

Can someone please explain why the guidance is more uncertain today than yesterday. I'm new, and don't understand why this is.

Some models are forecasting more interaction with an ULL over the Bahamas.

[Stormcenter]

Other models trend north while gfs stubbornly keeps west.Time will tell

Yeah, and considering I trust the GFDL much more than the GFS, I am still feeling uneasy.

Come on now the GFDL has flopped in the past so it's not perfect.
I'm not saying the GFS track is written in stone nor do I think Dean will
follow its track but I do believe it will sees something the other model
trending north are missing. As we keep on saying time will tell. Hey by the way is that
Dean's brother in the Atlantic on this run?