CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Wren]

Thank you for answering my question a few pages back. I'd stepped away from the computer for awhile.

edited to add: I read the NHC discussions when they come out. Their reasoning just wasn't clear to me. Again, thanks.

[Sabanic]

No problem here either

[fasterdisaster]

Ahm, I could be wrong here, but was that just the shortest eyewall replacement cycle I've ever seen?

[Chacor]

We will know by the next VDM....

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

If it gets large in size, which appears to be happening, we could see a very large surge area aka katrina... only this time the storm may remain quite strong, rather than decreasing in energy, as it goes ashore. Just like katrina had devastating surge effects to the east of landfall, this storm may provide a like scenario. -Depending where landfall is made, we may see NO in trouble yet again.

[Ivanhater]

60 hr

[fci]

48 hr


Am I the only one not seeing any of these NOGAPS images?

EDIT: Oops, never mind. IE wanted me to say it was okay to view something from a site with security certificate problems. Once I did that, they're displaying. In case anyone else runs into the same thing....

I had the same prompt from IE.

[Seele]

Don't even worry about a pinhole eye now. Recon has seen 17 and 32 nm wide eyes. Neither of which would be considered especially small.

[Extremecane]

so is it bout to start a ERC or ERC is over?

[sevenleft]

Oh, geez not a pinhole eye! That's the most dreaded eye there is!

Let's keep in mind that the last center pass was about 1 hour ago. They reported concentric eyewalls, at 32 and 17 mile diameters. Despite satellite appearance, it does not have a pinhole eye..nor does it have a well organized one, yet.

[ConvergenceZone]

I've heard this storm reference as being small, it doesn't look small to me!

[wxfollower]

when should I call my uncle to evac? I tried calling him a few days ago, but he is hard to find and talk to. He is very materialistic and has two practices in Brownsville, so I don't know, if her will leave. I am getting very worried.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Round eye:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc07/A ... LATEST.jpg

[Sanibel]

Last eye I saw like that was the lowest pressure hurricane ever recorded - WILMA!

[Chris_in_Tampa]

URNT15 KNHC 171651
AF304 0404A DEAN HDOB 46 20070817
164400 1607N 06246W 6977 03153 0093 +072 +072 102065 067 046 010 00
164430 1607N 06249W 6975 03155 0081 +081 +081 108070 072 046 008 03
164500 1607N 06251W 6973 03159 0078 +083 +083 107068 069 046 008 00
164530 1607N 06253W 6975 03158 0083 +082 +082 109067 068 046 008 00
164600 1608N 06256W 6970 03168 0089 +077 +077 107065 066 046 008 00
164630 1608N 06258W 6977 03159 0101 +070 +070 101066 066 045 033 03
164700 1608N 06300W 6977 03161 0102 +069 +069 100062 067 046 042 03
164730 1608N 06303W 6977 03157 0086 +080 +080 098054 055 047 008 00
164800 1608N 06305W 6975 03159 0086 +079 +079 098057 059 047 016 00
164830 1608N 06307W 6973 03164 0088 +078 +078 099061 061 047 008 00
164900 1609N 06309W 6974 03158 0078 +085 +085 102061 062 047 008 03
164930 1609N 06312W 6977 03161 0078 +087 +087 101060 061 046 008 03
165000 1608N 06314W 6969 03175 0086 +084 +084 098059 060 999 999 03
165030 1606N 06314W 6977 03156 0078 +086 +083 097059 060 045 007 03
165100 1605N 06313W 6977 03155 0075 +086 +078 096058 059 045 008 00
165130 1603N 06313W 6975 03155 0076 +084 +078 092057 058 045 007 00
165200 1601N 06313W 6975 03155 0076 +082 +082 099060 060 045 007 00
165230 1600N 06313W 6973 03157 0073 +083 +083 099060 060 045 009 03
165300 1558N 06313W 6976 03149 0065 +087 +083 097061 062 044 023 00
165330 1557N 06313W 6973 03148 0063 +087 +081 099061 061 045 026 03

Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 17th day of the month at 16:51Z
Date: August 17, 2007
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last digit of aircraft registration number is 304)
Storm Number: 04
Storm Name: Dean (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 46
Time (Z) / Coordinates / Acft. Static Air Press. / Acft. Geo. Hgt. / Extrap. Sfc. Press. / Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) / Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind / SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind / SFMR Rain Rate
16:44:00 16.12N 62.77W 697.7 mb 3,153 m 1009.3 mb From 102° (ESE) at 65 kts (74.8 mph) 67 kts (~ 77.0 mph) 46 kts 10 mm/hr
16:44:30 16.12N 62.82W 697.5 mb 3,155 m 1008.1 mb From 108° (ESE) at 70 kts (80.5 mph) 72 kts (~ 82.8 mph) 46 kts* 8 mm/hr*
16:45:00 16.12N 62.85W 697.3 mb 3,159 m 1007.8 mb From 107° (ESE) at 68 kts (78.2 mph) 69 kts (~ 79.3 mph) 46 kts 8 mm/hr
16:45:30 16.12N 62.88W 697.5 mb 3,158 m 1008.3 mb From 109° (ESE) at 67 kts (77.0 mph) 68 kts (~ 78.2 mph) 46 kts 8 mm/hr
16:46:00 16.13N 62.93W 697.0 mb 3,168 m 1008.9 mb From 107° (ESE) at 65 kts (74.8 mph) 66 kts (~ 75.9 mph) 46 kts 8 mm/hr
16:46:30 16.13N 62.97W 697.7 mb 3,159 m 1010.1 mb From 101° (E/ESE) at 66 kts (75.9 mph) 66 kts (~ 75.9 mph) 45 kts* 33 mm/hr*
16:47:00 16.13N 63.00W 697.7 mb 3,161 m 1010.2 mb From 100° (E) at 62 kts (71.3 mph) 67 kts (~ 77.0 mph) 46 kts* 42 mm/hr*
16:47:30 16.13N 63.05W 697.7 mb 3,157 m 1008.6 mb From 98° (E) at 54 kts (62.1 mph) 55 kts (~ 63.2 mph) 47 kts 8 mm/hr
16:48:00 16.13N 63.08W 697.5 mb 3,159 m 1008.6 mb From 98° (E) at 57 kts (65.5 mph) 59 kts (~ 67.8 mph) 47 kts 16 mm/hr
16:48:30 16.13N 63.12W 697.3 mb 3,164 m 1008.8 mb From 99° (E) at 61 kts (70.1 mph) 61 kts (~ 70.1 mph) 47 kts 8 mm/hr
16:49:00 16.15N 63.15W 697.4 mb 3,158 m 1007.8 mb From 102° (ESE) at 61 kts (70.1 mph) 62 kts (~ 71.3 mph) 47 kts* 8 mm/hr*
16:49:30 16.15N 63.20W 697.7 mb 3,161 m 1007.8 mb From 101° (E/ESE) at 60 kts (69.0 mph) 61 kts (~ 70.1 mph) 46 kts* 8 mm/hr*
16:50:00 16.13N 63.23W 696.9 mb 3,175 m 1008.6 mb From 98° (E) at 59 kts (67.8 mph) 60 kts (~ 69.0 mph) - -
16:50:30 16.10N 63.23W 697.7 mb 3,156 m 1007.8 mb From 97° (E) at 59 kts (67.8 mph) 60 kts (~ 69.0 mph) 45 kts* 7 mm/hr*
16:51:00 16.08N 63.22W 697.7 mb 3,155 m 1007.5 mb From 96° (E) at 58 kts (66.7 mph) 59 kts (~ 67.8 mph) 45 kts 8 mm/hr
16:51:30 16.05N 63.22W 697.5 mb 3,155 m 1007.6 mb From 92° (E) at 57 kts (65.5 mph) 58 kts (~ 66.7 mph) 45 kts 7 mm/hr
16:52:00 16.02N 63.22W 697.5 mb 3,155 m 1007.6 mb From 99° (E) at 60 kts (69.0 mph) 60 kts (~ 69.0 mph) 45 kts 7 mm/hr
16:52:30 16.00N 63.22W 697.3 mb 3,157 m 1007.3 mb From 99° (E) at 60 kts (69.0 mph) 60 kts (~ 69.0 mph) 45 kts* 9 mm/hr*
16:53:00 15.97N 63.22W 697.6 mb 3,149 m 1006.5 mb From 97° (E) at 61 kts (70.1 mph) 62 kts (~ 71.3 mph) 44 kts 23 mm/hr
16:53:30 15.95N 63.22W 697.3 mb 3,148 m 1006.3 mb From 99° (E) at 61 kts (70.1 mph) 61 kts (~ 70.1 mph) 45 kts* 26 mm/hr*
At 16:44:00Z (first observation), the observation was 56 miles (91 km) to the SW (221°) from Salem, Montserrat.
At 16:53:30Z (last observation), the observation was 253 miles (408 km) to the SE (132°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).

Map this message:
http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/p ... .22c-63.22

Suspect values are noted by an asterisk (*).

[Chacor]

when should I call my uncle to evac? I tried calling him a few days ago, but he is hard to find and talk to. He is very materialistic and has two practices in Brownsville, so I don't know, if her will leave. I am getting very worried.

I would suggest waiting at least for the next forecast to see if the general trend continues, goes into Mexico or turns northwards first.

[Ivanhater]

72 hr

[marcane_1973]

I think it is very scary now to think how big of a monster Mr mean Dean might get with all the warm waters it still has to go through. Does anybody see any indications in the atmosphere later on down the road to weaken Dean once he enters the GOM??? If not mannnn..... what a dangerous situation for the U.S. if Dean does not go West into Mexico and takes that dreaded more Northwest turn.

[oyster_reef]

Looks just like the 12z GFS run. Due west after slamming Jamaica

[Sabanic]

I agree. Wait a while. Still very far out, and he is moving just north of the plots at this time.