CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[lrak]

when should I call my uncle to evac? I tried calling him a few days ago, but he is hard to find and talk to. He is very materialistic and has two practices in Brownsville, so I don't know, if her will leave. I am getting very worried.

Next week.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Looks just like the 12z GFS run. Due west after slamming Jamaica

WOuld be the best of news!

[WxGuy1]

when should I call my uncle to evac? I tried calling him a few days ago, but he is hard to find and talk to. He is very materialistic and has two practices in Brownsville, so I don't know, if her will leave. I am getting very worried.

Don't worry too much yet. It's good to be prepared, but over-reaction can have a very negative result (it's the whole "cry wolf" syndrome). You could call him to make sure he's aware of it, but I would NOT start telling him to think about evacuating. Give it a couple more days; it looks like any potential 2nd landfall (if we use Yucatan as the 1st landfall, neglecting island landfalls) would occur 6-7 days (next Thurs-Fri), so there's still time. That is, there's plenty of time to pack and evacuate, and there's equally plenty of time for the forecast to change.

[weatherguru18]

OK...if you want to see the live news conference from Houston on Hurricane Preperations...go here...it's starting NOW!

abc13.com

[Evil Jeremy]

So far, it looks like its going back south again.

[Vandymit]

NOGAPS looks similar (so far) to the GFS & others.

[HouTXmetro]

Back to a Mexico strike... SO the bigger question now is what trend will perist and if the ULL will fill in?

[Seele]

I don't think we'll see a clear eye for a while. The only reason we are seeing the eye's impression better on satellite now is because new convection has decreased on the west side. Probably in response to the second eyewall forming.

There's no way to be sure, but I would guess the ERC is just recently starting since recon didn't originally find concentric eyewalls this morning and the (admittedly poor) Martinique radar didn't show an outer eyewall.

[wxfollower]

when should I call my uncle to evac? I tried calling him a few days ago, but he is hard to find and talk to. He is very materialistic and has two practices in Brownsville, so I don't know, if her will leave. I am getting very worried.

Don't worry too much yet. It's good to be prepared, but over-reaction can have a very negative result (it's the whole "cry wolf" syndrome). You could call him to make sure he's aware of it, but I would NOT start telling him to think about evacuating. Give it a couple more days; it looks like any potential 2nd landfall (if we use Yucatan as the 1st landfall, neglecting island landfalls) would occur 6-7 days (next Thurs-Fri), so there's still time. That is, there's plenty of time to pack and evacuate, and there's equally plenty of time for the forecast to change.

Okay will do. I just don't want him trapped in traffic while thousands are evacuating at the same time.

[Pearl River]

We also need to see how much of an effect the mountains of Hispaniola have on the circulation. If it weakens the northern part of the circulation any, we may see a more wnw movement for a period of time.

[Sabanic]

Hardly no change at all from it's earlier run

[Ivanhater]

yep nogaps Yucatan strike again...

[gilbert88]

Looks just like the 12z GFS run. Due west after slamming Jamaica

WOuld be the best of news!

Maybe for you. Certainly not for the people in Belize and southern Q. Roo that would have to deal with this.

[HURAKAN]

Continues to look much better defined.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

URNT15 KNHC 171701
AF304 0404A DEAN HDOB 47 20070817
165400 1555N 06313W 6972 03152 0068 +081 +081 099061 061 047 010 03
165430 1554N 06313W 6978 03141 0076 +074 +074 099061 062 049 038 03
165500 1552N 06313W 6973 03146 0080 +070 +070 096064 067 999 999 03
165530 1550N 06313W 6974 03143 0066 +080 +080 098067 068 999 999 03
165600 1549N 06313W 6972 03143 0061 +081 +081 098069 071 051 010 03
165630 1547N 06313W 6976 03139 0056 +081 +081 096071 072 052 016 03
165700 1546N 06313W 6975 03135 0051 +083 +083 097070 071 054 009 00
165730 1544N 06313W 6973 03136 0053 +078 +078 096068 069 055 009 00
165800 1543N 06313W 6972 03131 0062 +071 +071 095064 065 057 009 03
165830 1541N 06313W 6977 03120 0074 +061 +061 094065 066 056 053 03
165900 1539N 06313W 6978 03120 0070 +061 +061 099070 072 056 018 00
165930 1538N 06313W 6977 03120 0066 +063 +063 101070 072 058 043 03
170000 1536N 06313W 6974 03123 0060 +066 +066 104069 069 057 010 00
170030 1535N 06313W 6973 03120 0034 +082 +082 106070 072 056 010 00
170100 1533N 06313W 6977 03113 0028 +084 +084 105071 072 055 011 00
170130 1532N 06313W 6975 03112 0025 +085 +085 102071 073 056 042 03
170200 1531N 06313W 6971 03115 0031 +078 +078 098071 074 057 015 03
170230 1529N 06313W 6972 03112 0022 +081 +081 100068 070 999 999 03
170300 1527N 06313W 6978 03097 0028 +074 +074 100071 072 999 999 03
170330 1526N 06313W 6973 03098 0021 +075 +075 096070 071 059 016 03

Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 17th day of the month at 17:01Z
Date: August 17, 2007
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last digit of aircraft registration number is 304)
Storm Number: 04
Storm Name: Dean (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 47
Time (Z) / Coordinates / Acft. Static Air Press. / Acft. Geo. Hgt. / Extrap. Sfc. Press. / Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) / Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind / SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind / SFMR Rain Rate
16:54:00 15.92N 63.22W 697.2 mb 3,152 m 1006.8 mb From 99° (E) at 61 kts (70.1 mph) 61 kts (~ 70.1 mph) 47 kts* 10 mm/hr*
16:54:30 15.90N 63.22W 697.8 mb 3,141 m 1007.6 mb From 99° (E) at 61 kts (70.1 mph) 62 kts (~ 71.3 mph) 49 kts* 38 mm/hr*
16:55:00 15.87N 63.22W 697.3 mb 3,146 m 1008.0 mb From 96° (E) at 64 kts (73.6 mph) 67 kts (~ 77.0 mph) - -
16:55:30 15.83N 63.22W 697.4 mb 3,143 m 1006.6 mb From 98° (E) at 67 kts (77.0 mph) 68 kts (~ 78.2 mph) - -
16:56:00 15.82N 63.22W 697.2 mb 3,143 m 1006.1 mb From 98° (E) at 69 kts (79.3 mph) 71 kts (~ 81.6 mph) 51 kts* 10 mm/hr*
16:56:30 15.78N 63.22W 697.6 mb 3,139 m 1005.6 mb From 96° (E) at 71 kts (81.6 mph) 72 kts (~ 82.8 mph) 52 kts* 16 mm/hr*
16:57:00 15.77N 63.22W 697.5 mb 3,135 m 1005.1 mb From 97° (E) at 70 kts (80.5 mph) 71 kts (~ 81.6 mph) 54 kts 9 mm/hr
16:57:30 15.73N 63.22W 697.3 mb 3,136 m 1005.3 mb From 96° (E) at 68 kts (78.2 mph) 69 kts (~ 79.3 mph) 55 kts 9 mm/hr
16:58:00 15.72N 63.22W 697.2 mb 3,131 m 1006.2 mb From 95° (E) at 64 kts (73.6 mph) 65 kts (~ 74.8 mph) 57 kts* 9 mm/hr*
16:58:30 15.68N 63.22W 697.7 mb 3,120 m 1007.4 mb From 94° (E) at 65 kts (74.8 mph) 66 kts (~ 75.9 mph) 56 kts* 53 mm/hr*
16:59:00 15.65N 63.22W 697.8 mb 3,120 m 1007.0 mb From 99° (E) at 70 kts (80.5 mph) 72 kts (~ 82.8 mph) 56 kts 18 mm/hr
16:59:30 15.63N 63.22W 697.7 mb 3,120 m 1006.6 mb From 101° (E/ESE) at 70 kts (80.5 mph) 72 kts (~ 82.8 mph) 58 kts* 43 mm/hr*
17:00:00 15.60N 63.22W 697.4 mb 3,123 m 1006.0 mb From 104° (ESE) at 69 kts (79.3 mph) 69 kts (~ 79.3 mph) 57 kts 10 mm/hr
17:00:30 15.58N 63.22W 697.3 mb 3,120 m 1003.4 mb From 106° (ESE) at 70 kts (80.5 mph) 72 kts (~ 82.8 mph) 56 kts 10 mm/hr
17:01:00 15.55N 63.22W 697.7 mb 3,113 m 1002.8 mb From 105° (ESE) at 71 kts (81.6 mph) 72 kts (~ 82.8 mph) 55 kts 11 mm/hr
17:01:30 15.53N 63.22W 697.5 mb 3,112 m 1002.5 mb From 102° (ESE) at 71 kts (81.6 mph) 73 kts (~ 83.9 mph) 56 kts* 42 mm/hr*
17:02:00 15.52N 63.22W 697.1 mb 3,115 m 1003.1 mb From 98° (E) at 71 kts (81.6 mph) 74 kts (~ 85.1 mph) 57 kts* 15 mm/hr*
17:02:30 15.48N 63.22W 697.2 mb 3,112 m 1002.2 mb From 100° (E) at 68 kts (78.2 mph) 70 kts (~ 80.5 mph) - -
17:03:00 15.45N 63.22W 697.8 mb 3,097 m 1002.8 mb From 100° (E) at 71 kts (81.6 mph) 72 kts (~ 82.8 mph) - -
17:03:30 15.43N 63.22W 697.3 mb 3,098 m 1002.1 mb From 96° (E) at 70 kts (80.5 mph) 71 kts (~ 81.6 mph) 59 kts* 16 mm/hr*
At 16:54:00Z (first observation), the observation was 255 miles (410 km) to the SE (132°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
At 17:03:30Z (last observation), the observation was 279 miles (449 km) to the SE (137°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).

Map this message:
http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/p ... .22c-63.22

Suspect values are noted by an asterisk (*).

[Javlin]

I agree. Wait a while. Still very far out, and he is moving just north of the plots at this time.

Yea if it continues for the next ten hours as it is Dean will be at 16N and 67W which is .7N of the NHC's 5AM point.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Looks just like the 12z GFS run. Due west after slamming Jamaica

WOuld be the best of news!

Maybe for you. Certainly not for the people in Belize and southern Q. Roo that would have to deal with this.

Yea well that position is the greatest place possible if we need to put him somewhere...Virtually no POP

[JTD]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Becoming increasingly clear that this is a Mexico storm and will not affect the U.S.

GFS, Euro and Nogaps are all very reliable models indeed.

[Kludge]

Harris County (Houston) OEM press conference on NOW streaming live

[url][http://www.khou.com/sharedcontent/VideoPlayer/videoPlayer.php?vidId=57408&live=yes&noad=yes][/url]

[Extremeweatherguy]

I have the feeling a lot of people will be disappointed when this storm doesn't turn due west after Jamaica and continues WNW toward the tip of the Yucatan or the Yucatan channel. I mean I would love for that to happen, but I just do not see it in the cards. The only way I could see a mainland Mexico hit (south of the Tex/Mex border) is if Dean stayed west from the get go, remaining well south of Jamaica. If this hits Jamaica or northward I do not believe it will turn back west. We will see, but ATM that is my amaeture opinion.