CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[duris]

Wow!!! That scenerio is VERY VERY bad for NO. This time they would be on the right side of the storm where there would be a pretty decent storm surge and it would not take much to do the whole katrina repeat dealio all over again especially if Dean were to strike as a Cat3 or higher.

The "good" news is that it looks like the UKMET trended further west (if I'm reading the times correctly), whereas it was closer to the GFDL. and the GFDL is even more of the outlier now.

[canegrl04]

SPECIAL ADVISORY!!!! 125 MPH!!! Should be a Cat 4 very soon.

Maybe by 5pm advisory Jamica is going to get pounded

[HouTXmetro]

This is like hanging on to a person every word and the way that persons says it. From what I gather most models shifted s in the last run except for the GFDL?

[windstorm99]

A bit of subject but has anyone taking not of the very impressive in the eastern atlantic?

[Dean4Storms]

If you look at the 500mb vorticity, the CMC takes the ULL very rapidly clear back to northern MX. and runs the ridge in just as quick clear to western TX. Sorry, I'm not buying it.

[ronjon]

Dean is moving rapidly to the west, I have a hard time imagining the latest GFDL verifying.

That is part of the problem Opal. The faster Dean moves, the quicker he is outrunning the synoptics that would make him prog west. The rige needs time to run in tangent with him, so it stays north of him, essentially pinning him from being able to go north. If he outruns the "oozing" of the high pressure ridge, he can reach the periphery of the ridge, which actually helps to steer him north since the airflow around ridges goes clockwise.

Additionally, if he goes fast, he will get awfully close awfully fast to the weakness being caused by the Low to the west of the ridge.

Which is starting to concern me a little now. I am just hoping that we don't start seeing some major changes in the next day or two due to the storms speed and interaction with the ULL. The models generally have a hard time with speed and direction of ULLs that are cutoff from the main jet. Typically, I will say they overestimate the speed that they travel. With a rapidly intensifying storm being more influenced at the 300 mb level, the situation in the 72-120 hr time frame is getting more fluid not less so.

[digitaldahling]

The NW Quad is the most powerful, and they haven't sampled the winds there yet. But convection is pretty weak; cloud tops are pretty warm. Thus I believe the standard reduction doesn't apply here... I'd say borderline 2/3 right now.

Not to be argumentive in any way, but I have to completely disagree with that. We have been on the east side of Frederic & Elana, and on the west of Ivan & Dennis, and the NE side is worst by far.

So true. Put me on the west side any day.

[marcane_1973]

How is the stage setting up as far as favorable or unfavorable Atmospheric conditions for Dean once he enters the GOM If he gets as strong as the models are now saying I sure hope there is something in place to knock that bad boy back down some. 125mph already!!! I think Dean becoming a 5 is a real deal possibility now.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Can't we just move the Yuc 200 miles east?

[weatherguru18]

Why not post it as the 2pm advisory? I thought for sure the track would be shifted right again. Oh well...we watch.

[tolakram]

A bit of subject but has anyone taking not of the very impressive in the eastern atlantic?

Taken note of a very impressive wave in the eastern atlantic? I used my decoder ring. Yea, been watching the thread over in the main forum.

[LAwxrgal]

Um... I'm not liking that latest GFDL... puts Dean at my house. The only saving grace is the GFDL is a far right outlier at this point.

[NCSUwpack]

god why, why are you making it stronger. Please its got to stop. Isn't there something someone can do to weaken it? Anyone know if flights are still going into to Jam.? I want my family! ooh please stop it

[wxfollower]

A bit of subject but has anyone taking not of the very impressive in the eastern atlantic?

Taken note of a very impressive wave in the eastern atlantic? I used my decoder ring. Yea, been watching the thread over in the main forum.

yeah, I had to get my ebonic book out....

[HouTXmetro]

Hold on to your seats people, it's going to be a wild weekend with all these models!!!

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

god why, why are you making it stronger. Please its got to stop. Isn't there something someone can do to weaken it? Anyone know if flights are still going into to Jam.? I want my family! ooh please stop it

Be glad you can't reach them right now and take that to mean that they are diligently preparing themselves for what I am sure is very big news that everyone is paying close attention to in Jamaica. They may very well be trying to call you to let you know they are set with their plan, but are having a hard time getting a phone line out themselves.

If your mom raised you to be concerned and to pay attention as you are doing now, don't you think she is doing so herself now?

[Sabanic]

As true a statement as I have heard all day

[Extremeweatherguy]

The models are all in basic agreement with taking this toward Jamaica..



..After that point though, they diverge significantly. The movement and position/strength of that ULL and High will be crucial!

[wxfollower]

god why, why are you making it stronger. Please its got to stop. Isn't there something someone can do to weaken it? Anyone know if flights are still going into to Jam.? I want my family! ooh please stop it

slap; slap, easy, easy...just alert them for now. I believe a lot of peope are trying to get out. Jamaica will not get hammered, they will get pulverized sorry to say. Its just massive and god awful strong...

[marcane_1973]

History I am interested in knowing.....What is the strongest Hurricane to ever hit Jamaica???