CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[tolakram]

god why, why are you making it stronger. Please its got to stop. Isn't there something someone can do to weaken it? Anyone know if flights are still going into to Jam.? I want my family! ooh please stop it

Please check out this thread:

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=97071

That's a good place to discuss impact where as this thread is about discussing the storm itself. Good luck, my thoughts are with you and your family!

[Dean4Storms]

Something to note, for the GFDL track to verify it shows Dean beginning to round or out run the ridge by tomorrow as it nearly takes Dean into SW Hispaniola and moves it pass Jamaica to the north showing more of a WNW or maybe a 290 course. If we begin to see this verify tomorrow we'll know the GFDL may be onto things.

[tailgater]

god why, why are you making it stronger. Please its got to stop. Isn't there something someone can do to weaken it? Anyone know if flights are still going into to Jam.? I want my family! ooh please stop it

slap; slap, easy, easy...just alert them for now. I believe a lot of peope are trying to get out. Jamaica will not get hammered, they will get pulverized sorry to say. Its just massive and god awful strong...

sick puppy

[Stormcenter]

Maybe it's time to discount the GFDL for the moment especially with all of the
other models trending much further south then it. I could see if the other models
continued the northward trend but that is not the case here. Unless Of course the
GFDL is on the money 5 days out. I just have hard time buying into that because it
keeps on shifting north and east with every run.

[canegrl04]

I live near Dallas,and as I type this I can hear the rain falling outside.Its suppose to stick around for another day or two.Seems there is enough weakness in the ridge created to pull Dean more North

[tndefender]

Hurricane Dean blasts St Lucia
Published on Friday, August 17, 2007

By Jim Loney

MIAMI, USA (Reuters) - Hurricane Dean knocked out power, triggered landslides and ripped the roof off a hospital in St Lucia on Friday as it raced into the Caribbean on a path toward the oil and gas rigs of the Gulf of Mexico, officials said.

Dean's sustained winds rose to 105 mph as the Category 2 storm passed the French island of Martinique, just across the narrow St Lucia Channel where the eye of the hurricane crossed from the Atlantic Ocean to the Caribbean Sea.

The first hurricane of the Atlantic season lifted the roof off the pediatric wing at Victoria Hospital in St. Lucia's capital, Castries.

Patients had been moved from that area and there were no immediate reports of deaths or injuries in the former British colony of 170,000 people, said Dawn French, the island's emergency management director.

"It's very gusty and it's very rainy. We had a dead calm night and now we're getting walloped," said French, reached by telephone as she hunkered down to wait out the storm.

Heraldine Rock, a former government minister, told Reuters the storm ripped roofs off several houses and badly damaged at least two banana plantations.

"In one village, telephone and power lines are down, they're strewn all over the road, trees are uprooted and are blocking the roads," she said. "In another village, a landslide has been reported, cutting off any access to the airport."

[whereverwx]

(Click here) Wow, what a beast!

[CrazyC83]

The pressure should quickly come down to catch up to the winds. 110 kt usually has a pressure around 948mb.

[windstorm99]

What will this early development of dean becoming a CAT3 sooner then forcasted do to its track?It will be interesting for sure.

[canegrl04]

Something to note, for the GFDL track to verify it shows Dean beginning to round or out run the ridge by tomorrow as it nearly takes Dean into SW Hispaniola and moves it pass Jamaica to the north showing more of a WNW or maybe a 290 course. If we begin to see this verify tomorrow we'll know the GFDL may be onto things.

Its currently 79 degrees and raining here innear Dallas.Seems Dean has the opprtunity to take advantage of a weakness.Rain is forecast tomorrow,too

[duris]

I just have hard time buying into that because it
keeps on shifting north and east with every run.

I don't disagree, but the GFDL was shifting west yesterday I believe, because it was close to New Orleans in the morning, shifted towards TX and is now closer to New Orleans.

[weunice]

The NW Quad is the most powerful, and they haven't sampled the winds there yet. But convection is pretty weak; cloud tops are pretty warm. Thus I believe the standard reduction doesn't apply here... I'd say borderline 2/3 right now.

Not to be argumentive in any way, but I have to completely disagree with that. We have been on the east side of Frederic & Elana, and on the west of Ivan & Dennis, and the NE side is worst by far.

So true. Put me on the west side any day.

I thought the most powerful quadrant was determined by the direction it was traveling. For example a storm moving due west it would be the quadrant on the northern side towards the front (NW). If the storm was heading north then on the east side towards the front (NE) .... Corrections gurus?

[HURAKAN]

The NHC reports that the central pressure of Hurricane Dean is trying to find the winds. If you have any information, please call 1800-555-WIND.

[hial2]

There is a small weakness in the atmosphere right over Jamaica...clearly marked on the NCEP points..Let's hope this will make the storm veer..

[Seele]

The pressure should quickly come down to catch up to the winds. 110 kt usually has a pressure around 948mb.

It should work the other way around. I think your going to see higher winds than normal in relation to the pressure because of the gradient between Dean and the ridge to its north.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Maybe it's time to discount the GFDL for the moment especially with all of the
other models trending much further south then it. I could see if the other models
continued the northward trend but that is not the case here. Unless Of course the
GFDL is on the money 5 days out. I just have hard time buying into that because it
keeps on shifting north and east with every run.

I think we can see what the big argument between the models is: the ULL and its affect on Dean. Check the speed of the other models... do they keep the fast clip Dean currently has or do they slow him down? Also, what do they do with that upper low? We will be able to see soon which models seem to have the best grasp on Dean's speed and the evolution of that ULL (and therefore the ridge status). Dean's strength also plays a part I believe, since a stronger storm is more influenced by upper steering patterns and tends to want to go poleward more vigorously if able to.

[Agua]

god why, why are you making it stronger. Please its got to stop. Isn't there something someone can do to weaken it? Anyone know if flights are still going into to Jam.? I want my family! ooh please stop it

They will be fine. God will watch over and protect them. Just be calm when you talk to them. Tell them to get to shelter above flood levels and a very strong concrete building, preferable steel-reinforced.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

End of mission 4.

[tolakram]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

It's already north of the track. Hopefully it will move west for a while and get back down.

Dry air getting in again, but at this point it's obviously only a slight hindrance to development.



Purple is back on the cloud tops, east side of the eye.

[Derek Ortt]

HRWF brings the eyewall over Haiti, just north of Jamaica, produces a sub 900 pressure, and heads toward the US/Mexican border