CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Dean will need to slow down considerably to make any abrupt change in direction. It's kinda like a fast moving car... you need to put the brakes on a little to make a sharp turn.

[tolakram]

I think that buoy will be a good indicator of direction. Dean is running north of the forecast points, but if he goes straight west for a while he'll be back on the track and pass very close to that buoy.

[windstorm99]

Aric i also have GR3 which radar are you useing?

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Another thing... with a big mass like Dean has, momentum means something as well. If his forward momentum is moving in one direction, it wants to keep moving in that direction. -this also points to less likely of any scenario depicting abrupt changes in direction.

[MetroMike]

Maybe it's just possible that Dean will peak out in the carib.
Does anyone know how long on average a cat 3 or above stays that intense?

[RL3AO]

Its not moving that much more north than forecast.

[Aric Dunn]

Aric i also have GR3 which radar are you useing?

Its GR3.

[SouthFloridawx]

Aric i also have GR3 which radar are you useing?

Its GR3.

He meant which site...

[Derek Ortt]

http://www.weather.com/multimedia/video ... nter_video

[windstorm99]

Aric i also have GR3 which radar are you useing?

Its GR3.

I know but your useing the puerto rico radar on GR3?

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

CAT 3's can stay there for a long time, it is cat 5's that usually wane. But it is really about what the synoptics around a system are that will dictate its endurance. It is rare that a system can have perfect conditions for very long. Either shear gets involved, or dry air can get entrained, or it sits too long in one place, causing upwelling of cooler waters... it is all a fluid state. Dean though looks to be primed, and the environment as well, to maintain intensity or grow over the next 2 days, barring land interaction.

[Aric Dunn]

Aric i also have GR3 which radar are you useing?

Its GR3.

I know but your useing the puerto rico radar on GR3?

yeah

[Sabanic]

but they spin on a center point, not like a tire on the ground.

[kozzieman]

If Dean did take the path of that model bringing it into central LA wouldn't that put coastal MS on the dirty side of the storm or would the storm be far enough to the W of coastal MS to not cause coastal MS any problems?

[windstorm99]

How can i pull that up?I have all the U.S. radars but as far as puerto rico how can i get that.Thanks Adrian

[Brent]

Maybe it's just possible that Dean will peak out in the carib.
Does anyone know how long on average a cat 3 or above stays that intense?

Cat 3's can stay Cat 3's for DAYS, even a week if conditions are right. Now Cat 5's don't usually stay Cat 5's for more than 24-36 hours...

[Sabanic]

Depends. Like you said the further to the east in LA the worse the situation would be for MS

[Beam]

someone brought up that FNC was going to be imposing dean in the GOM to see what it would look like

Only on Fox

Last thing we need now is pointless hype like that. Dean is a 110 kt category 3 hurricane over the warmest waters in the entire basin, and it's just now beginning to hit its stride. That's impressive enough without scare tactics like imposing it over the gulf, wouldn't you say?

These damned networks and their ratings.

[Cape Verde]

If Dean did take the path of that model bringing it into central LA wouldn't that put coastal MS on the dirty side of the storm or would the storm be far enough to the W of coastal MS to not cause coastal MS any problems?

There's no way to say. Depending on the size of the storm, MS could easily feel some effects.

The GFDL needs to be verified before we take it seriously. It is WAY out there.

[whereverwx]

Here's the latest image. As you can see, his eye is getting clearer.