CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[KBBOCA]

If you animate the latest GOES East IR, you get a nice view of the eye clearing out.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrir.html

[Extremeweatherguy]

hi hoooo hi hoooo, its off to mexico dean goes..... Serriously, this thing has been on a western slightly NNW course since it formed. I don't see it making to much of a deviation.

GFDL trending north is reason for concern. Especially if you live along the Northern Gulf Coast. I don't like the weakness present in the synoptic situation this weekend. Especially since this storm is as big as the size of Texas.

I don't like that weakness either. If this storm takes the exact path the NHC is predicting right now, then it will not miss the weakness (if the weakness plays out how it is forecast currently on the GFS), and will be a TX or LA storm. The only hope for a pass south of the Texas/Mexico border seems to be if the storm stays south enough and moves slow enough once in the western Caribbean (shown in the 18z GFS) to miss the weakness and let the high build in. If it stays at or near it's current speed though, then that will not happen. The waiting game begins...

We should have a much better track idea come Sunday.

[cycloneye]

326
URNT15 KNHC 172230
AF302 0504A DEAN HDOB 04 20070817
222030 1717N 06522W 6964 03196 0112 +079 +074 079054 055 048 004 00
222100 1716N 06524W 6968 03188 0119 +073 +073 076051 052 050 000 03
222130 1715N 06526W 6966 03193 0118 +074 +066 075051 052 048 001 00
222200 1714N 06528W 6967 03188 0117 +073 +072 073051 053 049 001 00
222230 1712N 06530W 6965 03193 0116 +074 +069 073052 053 046 004 00
222300 1711N 06532W 6967 03189 0113 +077 +067 072052 052 052 000 00
222330 1710N 06534W 6967 03189 0122 +070 +062 074053 054 049 005 00
222400 1709N 06536W 6966 03191 0118 +074 +054 073055 056 051 000 00
222430 1708N 06538W 6968 03185 0117 +074 +054 075057 058 047 003 00
222500 1706N 06540W 6967 03187 0119 +071 +056 077056 057 045 004 00
222530 1705N 06542W 6964 03188 0121 +070 +054 076057 057 045 004 00
222600 1704N 06544W 6967 03187 0121 +070 +054 074055 057 046 002 00
222630 1703N 06546W 6969 03187 0120 +070 +054 071053 054 045 003 00
222700 1702N 06548W 6968 03188 0119 +069 +057 070054 055 045 003 00
222730 1701N 06550W 6965 03186 0117 +070 +056 067055 055 044 003 00
222800 1659N 06552W 6967 03185 0120 +068 +058 066053 054 045 004 00
222830 1658N 06553W 6967 03184 0119 +068 +057 066056 056 044 004 00
222900 1657N 06555W 6967 03183 0117 +069 +056 065055 056 045 003 00
222930 1656N 06557W 6967 03184 0116 +070 +055 062054 054 044 004 00
223000 1654N 06559W 6967 03183 0114 +072 +056 059052 053 043 004 00
$$

[HURAKAN]

[Ptarmigan]

I think Dean will have a good chance of being a Category 4 hurricane. I would not be surprised if it becomes a Category 5 either. If any evacuation order is issued, it will probably be on Sunday or Monday.

[canegrl04]

We will know by Sunday if Dean is going to be a US hurricane

[HURAKAN]

Probably last visible.

[Ptarmigan]

Computer models are meaningless because it's days ahead. Everyone must keep an eye on Hurricane Dean. Right now, Jamaica must prepare and batter down the hatches.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The Gfdl might have a clue on what the last decade of storms have done. That is to have a weakness once the system got to 75-80 west, to turn it west-northwest or even northwest...It is hard to get a storm to go westly or west-northwestly like Gilbert or Allen did into Mexico. It takes a strong high to the north to do so...I don't expect this ridge to hold, in fact I expect a weakness to form just enough to pull the system just north of the Yucatan or across its northern part. I also strongly feel that this is likely a central/northern part of southeast Texas coast storm. But could be farther north of that.

I expect this to be a cat4 with the fact that the eye has become clear and round. In with reds forming around all quads its a classic cat4. I expect the outflow to improve over the next 24-36 hours, as its is moving into the super HOT TCHP hotter then 2005. I think this will be a cat5. I think this could make Ivan seem like a joke. Maybe not a Wilma,Gilbert,Allen like storm but it could happen if it slows down.

Do not think the GFDL is lieing unless it starts moving back and forth. Because if it starts having run after run showing it. This model can be one of the best with track.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

For those who are waiting for the 18z GFDL,it will roll out around 7:30 PM.

[cycloneye]

988
URNT15 KNHC 172240
AF302 0504A DEAN HDOB 05 20070817
223030 1653N 06601W 6967 03186 0116 +070 +060 058051 051 045 004 00
223100 1652N 06603W 6967 03182 0116 +070 +059 061052 053 046 003 00
223130 1651N 06605W 6965 03186 0116 +070 +059 060054 054 046 004 00
223200 1650N 06607W 6967 03185 0117 +070 +059 059053 053 046 004 00
223230 1649N 06609W 6967 03185 0115 +071 +058 058053 053 048 002 00
223300 1647N 06611W 6968 03181 0114 +071 +060 055054 054 046 004 00
223330 1646N 06613W 6967 03183 0110 +075 +057 056053 053 046 005 00
223400 1645N 06615W 6968 03182 0106 +079 +055 057052 053 047 004 00
223430 1644N 06617W 6967 03184 0105 +080 +055 056054 054 047 004 00
223500 1643N 06619W 6968 03182 0105 +080 +055 056054 055 046 003 03
223530 1642N 06621W 6967 03186 0106 +080 +057 056053 054 048 001 00
223600 1641N 06623W 6967 03182 0105 +080 +057 054054 054 046 003 03
223630 1640N 06625W 6967 03181 0105 +080 +056 054054 054 044 003 00
223700 1639N 06627W 6964 03185 0104 +080 +054 055054 055 045 003 00
223730 1638N 06629W 6968 03181 0100 +082 +053 056055 055 047 002 00
223800 1637N 06631W 6967 03181 0097 +084 +052 057055 056 045 004 00
223830 1636N 06634W 6965 03185 0098 +085 +051 057055 056 046 003 00
223900 1635N 06636W 6967 03184 0096 +087 +049 058057 057 045 004 00
223930 1634N 06638W 6967 03187 0095 +088 +048 057056 057 046 003 00
224000 1633N 06640W 6967 03186 0099 +085 +052 053055 055 045 004 00
$$

[Cyclone1]

Matt-hurricane watcher: Wrong disclaimer.

[Praxus]

A true "monster" is on its way to Category 4 status, in my opinion. Look at the classical signature outflow and inflow system, which is charismatic of intense hurricanes under good UL support. The convective "ring" should become more symmetrical, especially because of the current negligible mid-level shear and increasingly more conducive oceanic heat content.

I completely agree, that what I thought when I look at the IR frame. That 'doughnut' of intense convection around the eye means (to me) that its well on its way to cat 4 status, if not there already.

[caribepr]

So far we've had nothing more than a blustery day and 75 heavy raindrops. I went on a beach tour with a friend to look at waves...one side (Zoni) was slightly heavy surf and beach erosion, the other, mild as any day. Very hazy though.

All preps were done, and we all were done in. Sat with friends in a local bar/restaurant watching TWC and laughing at our coverage (can someone tell them there that Dominica is pronouced Dohm-oh-nee-kah, emphasis on the nee, NOT Dough-min-ee-cah? and...to get their bodies out of the way of the islands when TALKING about them?), and hurting for those south of us; thinking we'd be in a bit of soup but so far, not. I even made soup, figuring the power would go out and it would be a cozy thing to eat and share. The cozy, getting together time isn't yet, if at all. We'll see. No regrets on preps...it's what we do.
Hearts out (and hands out to help) to those affected, and those who will be.

report from Dominica on stormcarib.com - very sad

WELL we are still on line we can't believe it. Our telephone line has
stayed intact, yet we are completely cut off. Our cottage stood fast,
we did not have a drop of rain even through the door! Dean visited us
at 1.30 a.m and has carried on all day - we have rain with us now but
much lighter. The hurricane really took off around 5.0 a.m. this
morning, 90% trees around us have fallen down, making great thwacking
crashing noises, that is the worst part. All our beautiful bamboo has
broken, now resembling wilted straws. Trees are horizontal. There
have been terrible landslides and one mother and seven year old son
lost their lives at Campbells through a mud slide. This is so sad.
There are two bridges washed away - one at Belfast and the other at
Belles, other bridges that have been damaged.

People have been working on the roads already and have cleared from
St. Joseph to Roseau. People are coming to clear our road tomorrow so
things are getting back sooner than I had thought. We are so happy to
hear this and proud of the Dominican people rallying around to help
get us back together again.

The hurricane really was vicious early in the morning with great gusts
of wind bringing tree after tree down. The winds got milder but the
rain was torrential, it was like sitting under a constant waterfall.
We kept in touch with caring friends on the phone, I was able to get
hold of my sister in the UK to let her know we were OK in the valley.

Dominica is getting back on track they have electricity in Roseau the
main city and should have the electricity back in Portsmouth tomorrow.
It sounds like most people have weathered Dean well with a fight and
fortitude to be proud of.

It has meant so much to us having so many well wishers on line we
can't thank them enough for their support it made a lot of difference
to us. We are only to happy to help people having up dates of family.

From Jaco Lad's point of view - catagories 2,3,4 are meaningless in
the small scheme of things when cat.1 can take you apart just like
that. Most of our damage came early and intensified winds just made it
flatter. Ravines in Dominica become rivers in a jumbletime nano-sec
and the water speed, colour and volume resemble Guyana or Venezuela at
best.

Some of the images around the island presently are akin to hurricane
David 28 years ago and will be captured asap - but for now let's sleep
soundly.

[El Nino]

The only chance sis to have a cat5 too fast, so it won't be possible for him maintain this powerfull and then weak before it hit land.

[Frank P]

For those who are waiting for the 18z GFDL,it will roll out around 7:30 PM.

I think the GFDL is going to get a lot of playing time this evening... obviously we're looking for consistency from run to run.. seems like its been going from central TX to central LA for the past several runs... will be interesting to see what tonights run brings us...

[Cape Verde]

They are not at all meaningless, because those of us on coast have to make decisions well in advance of the storm. We have to estimate the intensity, and we have to estimate the likelihood of the threat.

We have to make those decisions before there is any certainty, and the only thing we have to go on is the models and the advice of the NHC.

Generally, we have to make those decisions before the rest of the local population wakes up to the problem or our decisions are moot.

The storm track this far is out meaningless to people on the Atlantic seaboard, but they're sure not meaningless to me.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I'm sorry I was not thinking, I'm looking for it.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

This is just my educated guess right now:

Taking into account all the guidance and the possible synoptic setup at the time, I think Dean will make landfall between Corpus Christi and Galveston Island late in the day Wednesday.

[Jagno]

They are not at all meaningless, because those of us on coast have to make decisions well in advance of the storm. We have to estimate the intensity, and we have to estimate the likelihood of the threat.

We have to make those decisions before there is any certainty, and the only thing we have to go on is the models and the advice of the NHC.

Generally, we have to make those decisions before the rest of the local population wakes up to the problem or our decisions are moot.

The storm track this far is out meaningless to people on the Atlantic seaboard, but they're sure not meaningless to me.

My thoughts exactly. Well put.