CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[jasons2k]

Tad south of NHC path:

[cycloneye]

927
URNT15 KNHC 172250
AF302 0504A DEAN HDOB 06 20070817
224030 1632N 06642W 6967 03185 0096 +087 +045 052051 052 043 004 00
224100 1631N 06644W 6967 03184 0096 +087 +046 053054 055 043 004 00
224130 1630N 06646W 6965 03184 0096 +086 +048 056053 054 042 004 00
224200 1629N 06648W 6965 03186 0093 +089 +045 056054 056 039 005 03
224230 1627N 06650W 6967 03185 0088 +091 +045 053054 055 037 004 00
224300 1626N 06652W 6969 03182 0093 +090 +044 052053 054 037 003 00
224330 1624N 06653W 6965 03184 0090 +091 +044 051051 051 036 004 00
224400 1623N 06655W 6967 03185 0087 +095 +043 049052 052 036 004 00
224430 1621N 06657W 6964 03188 0085 +096 +042 049051 052 042 000 00
224500 1620N 06658W 6966 03186 0084 +097 +042 049049 050 039 003 00
224530 1618N 06700W 6969 03184 0085 +097 +043 046048 049 038 003 00
224600 1617N 06702W 6968 03184 0084 +094 +066 045049 050 035 004 00
224630 1615N 06703W 6965 03192 0087 +096 +056 046050 050 999 999 03
224700 1613N 06703W 6969 03183 0086 +097 +041 045046 047 026 004 03
224730 1612N 06701W 6976 03175 0088 +092 +046 046048 050 031 004 03
224800 1611N 06700W 6963 03187 0089 +089 +061 045046 048 032 003 00
224830 1610N 06659W 6969 03179 0086 +093 +049 045044 045 033 003 00
224900 1608N 06658W 6964 03183 0089 +090 +046 047045 046 032 004 00
224930 1607N 06657W 6967 03180 0088 +089 +048 050046 046 033 004 00
225000 1606N 06656W 6965 03181 0093 +085 +049 049045 045 036 003 00
$$

[Recurve]

"...Jamaica must prepare and batter down the hatches."

I'm afraid Dean is going to do that...even if the islanders batten them.

[dwg71]

NHC seems to be thinking MX. Model consensous is MX. I will take MX for $500 Alex.

[Eyewall]

Tad south of NHC path:

once again
the radar is dispaying the eye in the mid levels.. the surface circulation is probably a little north of that
somtimes the eyewall will slant away from the high pressure

[PTrackerLA]

I don't see how the GFDL won't shift far to the south. Seems like most of the models have done so over the course of the day.

[jasons2k]

Tad south of NHC path:

once again
the radar is dispaying the eye in the mid levels.. the surface circulation is probably a little north of that
somtimes the eyewall will slant away from the high pressure

I know that. But I'm looking at the loop and it initialized almost on top on the NHC position. Plus Dean is vertically stacked pretty good, so it's not like some rogue MLC in a "blob".

And yes it's just a wobble.......and just an observation as well.

[sevenleft]

Tad south of NHC path:

once again
the radar is dispaying the eye in the mid levels.. the surface circulation is probably a little north of that
somtimes the eyewall will slant away from the high pressure

Well, for what it's worth, the eye on IR is in the same position. It's going to wobble along..all hurricanes do.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I don't see how the GFDL won't shift far to the south. Seems like most of the models have done so over the course of the day.

The only 2 models that have really shifted south today are the GFS and the UKMET. The other models are similar to or further north than yesterday. the NAM, CMC, AEMN (GFS ensemble consensus) and GFDL, for instance, are further north...the EURO is further north in the short term and then similar in the long run...and the BAM models, HWRF and LGEM are pretty similar to yesterday.

[Innotech]

something about such a straight line Mexico hit just doesnt feel right. that high is surrounded by two ULLS that can change the dynamics overnight. NHC seems might confident when the models are still so divergent. Especially since at best its forecast to nick just the tip of the yucatan. I remember Isidore did that and then ended up in Louisiana on a completely different heading. I think what NHC is predicting is an ideal scenario to avoid mass panic. Especially since the track always seems to point exactly at the border, which doesnt make the US or Mexico particularly nervous as a direct hit. I think they are stalling until they have a better idea.

[cycloneye]

250
URNT15 KNHC 172300
AF302 0504A DEAN HDOB 07 20070817
225030 1604N 06654W 6969 03175 0090 +087 +048 050046 046 037 003 00
225100 1603N 06653W 6964 03179 0089 +088 +052 050046 047 037 005 03
225130 1602N 06652W 6969 03175 0089 +087 +052 048048 049 039 004 00
225200 1602N 06650W 6965 03179 0096 +080 +059 046048 049 040 002 00
225230 1601N 06649W 6967 03178 0091 +082 +056 045047 048 040 003 00
225300 1601N 06647W 6967 03175 0092 +083 +056 045048 049 040 002 00
225330 1600N 06646W 6965 03176 0094 +080 +056 046048 049 041 003 00
225400 1600N 06644W 6969 03170 0092 +080 +053 046048 049 041 003 00
225430 1559N 06642W 6965 03176 0097 +075 +057 046050 052 042 003 00
225500 1559N 06641W 6964 03175 0093 +078 +050 048052 052 043 002 00
225530 1559N 06640W 6964 03176 0095 +075 +055 047053 054 042 003 00
225600 1558N 06638W 6970 03166 0093 +077 +051 050052 052 043 003 00
225630 1558N 06637W 6967 03169 0085 +083 +045 050050 051 043 002 00
225700 1557N 06635W 6965 03171 0083 +085 +043 048050 050 042 002 00
225730 1557N 06633W 6967 03169 0080 +086 +045 048051 052 041 003 00
225800 1556N 06632W 6965 03168 0077 +087 +045 047051 051 041 003 00
225830 1556N 06631W 6967 03165 0068 +092 +047 044052 052 041 003 00
225900 1555N 06629W 6968 03167 0067 +093 +045 043051 052 042 002 00
225930 1554N 06628W 6967 03163 0069 +090 +045 043051 052 042 003 00
230000 1553N 06626W 6969 03159 0069 +089 +047 043050 051 042 001 00
$$

[canetracker]

For those who are waiting for the 18z GFDL,it will roll out around 7:30 PM.

I think the GFDL is going to get a lot of playing time this evening... obviously we're looking for consistency from run to run.. seems like its been going from central TX to central LA for the past several runs... will be interesting to see what tonights run brings us...

The past 4 runs have shown an upper Texas/La landfall. We do need consistency, but for the short term I do see consistency. This is a very reliable model and one that should not be ignored. Will be watching the new run but I am not totally relying on any model. I just wonder how the GFS and GFDL could be related!? : )

[HURAKAN]

Cat. 4 seems likely.

[CrazyC83]

I would estimate 120 kt right now. My pressure guess is 946mb.

[CrazyC83]

One suggestion when writing in all bold: you should color the highest winds found so far in red and the lowest pressure found so far in blue...

[cycloneye]

000
UZNT13 KNHC 172301
XXAA 67237 99161 70669 04366 99009 28256 05035 00076 27656 05037
92762 21628 05044 85492 17429 04549 70131 09238 05047 88999 77999
31313 09608 82250
61616 AF302 0504A DEAN OB 02
62626 SPL 1604N06696W 2254 MBL WND 05040 AEV 00000 DLM WND 05048
008708 WL150 05037 075 =
XXBB 67238 99161 70669 04366 00009 28256 11908 20220 22850 17429
33761 13457 44737 11039 55707 11041 66697 08437
21212 00009 05035 11993 05041 22973 05039 33960 05043 44885 05047
55864 05052 66850 04549 77697 05047
31313 09608 82250
61616 AF302 0504A DEAN OB 02
62626 SPL 1604N06696W 2254 MBL WND 05040 AEV 00000 DLM WND 05048
008708 WL150 05037 075 =



Dropsonde.

[cycloneye]

Lets wait for the plane as it gets into the eye shortly and we will see how the real pressure is.

[pojo]

000
UZNT13 KNHC 172301
XXAA 67237 99161 70669 04366 99009 28256 05035 00076 27656 05037
92762 21628 05044 85492 17429 04549 70131 09238 05047 88999 77999
31313 09608 82250
61616 AF302 0504A DEAN OB 02
62626 SPL 1604N06696W 2254 MBL WND 05040 AEV 00000 DLM WND 05048
008708 WL150 05037 075 =
XXBB 67238 99161 70669 04366 00009 28256 11908 20220 22850 17429
33761 13457 44737 11039 55707 11041 66697 08437
21212 00009 05035 11993 05041 22973 05039 33960 05043 44885 05047
55864 05052 66850 04549 77697 05047
31313 09608 82250
61616 AF302 0504A DEAN OB 02
62626 SPL 1604N06696W 2254 MBL WND 05040 AEV 00000 DLM WND 05048
008708 WL150 05037 075

Dropsonde.

this is a center drop... appartently the dropsonde operator didn't catch the bad pressure.
this is saying the pressure is 1009.

[cycloneye]

848
URNT15 KNHC 172310
AF302 0504A DEAN HDOB 08 20070817
230030 1552N 06625W 6967 03163 0074 +085 +051 042050 051 040 002 00
230100 1552N 06623W 6965 03162 0074 +083 +054 040051 051 041 002 00
230130 1551N 06622W 6968 03156 0075 +080 +066 040050 050 042 002 00
230200 1550N 06620W 6967 03159 0070 +081 +067 041049 049 041 003 00
230230 1549N 06619W 6968 03157 0064 +086 +062 041048 049 042 004 00
230300 1548N 06617W 6968 03156 0063 +088 +058 038047 048 043 003 00
230330 1547N 06616W 6965 03158 0067 +085 +056 038045 046 044 002 00
230400 1547N 06614W 6969 03153 0068 +085 +054 039043 044 043 002 00
230430 1546N 06613W 6963 03158 0069 +081 +054 040044 045 044 003 00
230500 1545N 06611W 6968 03149 0070 +080 +056 040044 044 047 002 00
230530 1544N 06610W 6967 03153 0066 +081 +052 041044 045 048 002 00
230600 1543N 06608W 6968 03148 0062 +084 +054 042043 046 047 002 00
230630 1542N 06607W 6963 03150 0063 +081 +059 041046 047 045 004 00
230700 1542N 06605W 6967 03152 0066 +078 +059 040046 047 047 004 00
230730 1541N 06604W 6968 03145 0070 +074 +063 039048 050 047 004 00
230800 1540N 06602W 6967 03151 0069 +073 +062 039054 054 046 004 00
230830 1539N 06601W 6967 03143 0064 +078 +059 036054 054 049 004 00
230900 1538N 06559W 6969 03144 0059 +082 +053 038055 056 051 001 00
230930 1537N 06558W 6965 03151 0056 +084 +063 043055 055 050 003 00
231000 1537N 06556W 6967 03144 0052 +085 +067 046053 054 051 004 00
$$

[Cape Verde]

The past 4 runs have shown an upper Texas/La landfall. We do need consistency, but for the short term I do see consistency. This is a very reliable model and one that should not be ignored. Will be watching the new run but I am not totally relying on any model. I just wonder how the GFS and GFDL could be related!? : )

The difference between a Galveston Bay and a Vermillion Bay landfall is huge, even if it's a Category 5. Vermillion Bay, and Houston gets a 20% chance of showers and a northerly wind.