CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[JTD]

Thanks Wxman57 for your awesome and detailed post!!

The models today seem to have trended south to indicate Mexico and the 18z GFS and Euro just dove this thing way into Southern Mexico along with the UKMET. Are you discounting those at this time?

[cycloneye]

080
URNT15 KNHC 172321
AF302 0504A DEAN HDOB 09 20070817
231030 1536N 06555W 6965 03149 0050 +085 +070 041051 051 052 004 00
231100 1535N 06553W 6968 03141 0045 +088 +068 039051 052 056 002 00
231130 1534N 06552W 6967 03142 0044 +087 +070 044049 050 056 003 00
231200 1533N 06550W 6966 03140 0060 +073 +073 049052 054 054 005 00
231230 1533N 06549W 6967 03133 0055 +073 +073 054054 054 052 004 00
231300 1532N 06548W 6965 03135 0038 +084 +081 054053 054 052 005 00
231330 1531N 06546W 6968 03130 0037 +085 +078 053053 054 054 007 00
231400 1530N 06545W 6964 03130 0034 +085 +075 052053 054 053 006 00
231430 1529N 06543W 6967 03130 0036 +081 +081 050055 057 053 007 00
231500 1528N 06542W 6971 03118 0036 +078 +078 051057 057 055 007 03
231530 1527N 06541W 6965 03119 0030 +081 +081 053057 058 056 010 00
231600 1527N 06540W 6969 03117 0037 +075 +075 055062 064 055 013 00
231630 1526N 06538W 6960 03128 0026 +080 +080 054063 064 056 006 00
231700 1525N 06537W 6965 03118 0016 +085 +085 054060 062 055 006 00
231730 1524N 06536W 6967 03116 0011 +088 +088 054055 056 055 007 00
231800 1523N 06534W 6967 03111 0002 +092 +088 054056 058 058 006 00
231830 1522N 06533W 6968 03105 0006 +086 +086 049059 060 059 007 00
231900 1521N 06532W 6969 03106 0000 +088 +088 053058 059 058 006 00
231930 1520N 06530W 6965 03101 9985 +097 +093 054066 067 059 006 00
232000 1519N 06529W 6967 03095 9993 +085 +085 050064 067 059 009 00
$$


67kts.

[Yankeegirl]

Well I have noticed the changes on the track moving to the south of here and possibly into Mexico... Still not to sure... going to get some suppiles, but im not over doing it... I will have to wait till sunday to get more of an idea of where its going...

Just to throw this around... I work at a vet, and today I was mentioning the possibility of Dean coming to the Houston area... everyones thoughts are "no its not" ... I dont think anyone is even taking this one seriously...

[CronkPSU]

why wouldn't they fly the gulfstream everyday? it doesn't have other responsibilities does it?

They did fly it up around the bahamas upper low..but that's it. That will still make for some interesting new input in the 00z models though.

oh ok, thanks, you just figure they would want to put as much real time info into these models as possible especially when so many people are at risk and evacuations take 48-72 hours at minimum

[tolakram]

This is what I've been looking for, blue eye.

[jopatura]

I dont think anyone is even taking this one seriously...

I was shopping at a Target in Southwest Houston today because of tax-free weekend and there's no bottled water left in the store and there was about five things of batteries and only the most cheapest of flashlights. People are at least stocking up.

[BigO]

I can't comment on the veracity of the models in terms of accuracy, but 3 of them have Dean moving far more northerly now. That's becoming something of a trend. IIRC, this was similar to the models in Katrina. 2 or 3 of them bucked the prediction of Panama City, then suddenly the 12z run on Friday jumped from PCB to Biloxi. The next morning, the forecast was for a direct strike on NOLA on the dreaded 30-90 course and the storm had strengthened from Cat3 to Cat5 overnight.

I'll never forget sitting in my kitchen on the laptop at 4:45AM refreshing my browser to catch the latest course plot and the absolute horror I felt when the newest plot came on screen.

My exact words to the missus standing next to me: "F$#& it. We're outta here."

[Yankeegirl]

Well thats good to hear... I havent gotten out much for the past few days... I have been a little under the weather.... I think I am going to go fill up my tank though, before the price gets any higher....

[Innotech]

Im really not liking the fact that it has a small eye.
Not at all.

[cycloneye]

WHXX04 KWBC 172327
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

HURRICANE DEAN 04L

INITIAL TIME 18Z AUG 17

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 14.8 63.6 280./19.0
6 15.1 65.3 279./16.2
12 15.4 67.0 281./16.6
18 15.8 68.6 284./16.5
24 16.3 70.2 287./16.2
30 16.8 71.8 289./16.0
36 17.5 73.7 288./19.2
42 18.0 75.5 288./18.5
48 18.7 77.4 289./18.5
54 19.3 79.3 287./18.9
60 19.8 81.1 286./17.9
66 20.5 82.9 290./18.5
72 21.2 84.7 293./18.3
78 21.9 86.3 294./16.6
84 22.7 87.9 296./16.5
90 23.6 89.5 301./17.3
96 24.7 90.9 306./17.0
102 26.0 92.4 312./18.4
108 27.3 94.0 309./19.3
114 28.6 95.6 309./18.8
120 29.8 97.0 310./17.0
126 30.9 98.0 316./14.1



Near Galveston.

[tolakram]

Im really not liking the fact that it has a small eye.
Not at all.

The image has refreshed since I posted it and now is pretty ragged. Might be the start of an ERC. I would not know, honestly.

[HURAKAN]

Not bad for a Major Hurricane.

[Ivanhater]

[CronkPSU]

definitely been wobbling WSW the last few frames back under 15N

[cycloneye]

973
URNT15 KNHC 172330
AF302 0504A DEAN HDOB 10 20070817
232030 1518N 06528W 6966 03092 9981 +090 +086 055062 064 059 006 00
232100 1517N 06527W 6966 03086 9972 +094 +081 056065 066 061 006 00
232130 1516N 06525W 6965 03083 9984 +079 +079 046073 077 064 017 03
232200 1515N 06524W 6968 03068 9983 +071 +071 041073 075 066 024 03
232230 1514N 06523W 6970 03061 9974 +074 +074 050070 071 066 033 03
232300 1513N 06521W 6958 03072 9952 +086 +086 050069 071 067 032 03
232330 1512N 06520W 6966 03054 9970 +066 +066 053080 086 069 020 00
232400 1511N 06519W 6961 03049 9962 +063 +063 059081 084 068 024 03
232430 1510N 06518W 6965 03037 9943 +072 +072 055080 082 071 034 03
232500 1509N 06517W 6971 03023 9936 +073 +073 056080 081 071 005 00
232530 1508N 06516W 6964 03022 9903 +088 +088 056084 087 074 003 00
232600 1507N 06515W 6970 03002 9883 +092 +092 058091 095 076 007 00
232630 1505N 06514W 6959 02997 9877 +079 +079 056098 101 077 010 00
232700 1504N 06513W 6969 02960 9837 +093 +093 058104 107 082 007 00
232730 1503N 06512W 6959 02950 9810 +091 +091 060112 117 085 033 03
232800 1501N 06511W 6956 02918 9990 +076 +999 056113 116 091 043 01
232830 1500N 06511W 6989 02836 9990 +077 +999 052123 127 091 055 05
232900 1459N 06510W 6942 02844 9990 +079 +999 048126 130 093 063 01
232930 1457N 06509W 6965 02765 9990 +094 +999 043093 110 121 022 05
233000 1456N 06508W 6990 02692 9525 +133 +133 036070 077 123 014 03
$$

123kts

[HouTXmetro]

Even though it's near Galveston the rightward trend is over. Maybe the next few runs it will go even further South.

[HURAKAN]

126 knts

[hurricanetrack]

Wow- GFDL is all alone out there with its U.S. landfall according to that map. That's a lot of models that would be wrong and one that would be right- just looking at that one map. Hard to imainge that many models being so far off the mark- but we'll see.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Starting to look like Ivan with the large feeders bands in all quads. Great outflow...Only needs to form a full circle of red around the eye.

[KBBOCA]

I subscribe to the State Dept. list serve for travel warnings, etc. They've sent out the following travel warning for Jamaica and the Caymans today:

JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS

August 17, 2007

This Travel Warning is being issued to urge U.S. citizens to carefully consider the risks of travel to Jamaica and the Cayman Islands at this time due to the threat posed by Hurricane Dean. The Department of State has authorized the departure of non-emergency personnel and eligible family members of the U.S. Embassy in Kingston, Jamaica. The storm is predicted to pass over Jamaica and the Cayman Islands on August 19.

The U.S. Embassy in Kingston will be available over the weekend for emergency American Citizens Services, but may be forced to suspend operations without notice. U.S. citizens in areas likely to be impacted by Hurricane Dean who do not have access to adequate and safe shelter should consider departing until the storm has passed while commercial flights are still available. Seating capacity on commercial flights is extremely limited. Flights into and out of Kingston and Montego Bay international airports, and the Grand Cayman Airport may be suspended at any time. If staying in Jamaica or the Cayman Islands, U.S. citizens are urged to locate shelter, monitor media reports, and follow all official instructions. Visitors to Jamaica or the Cayman Islands should be familiar with their hotel or cruise ship evacuation plans, policies, or procedures. Please see the Caribbean Public Announcement regarding hurricane season dated August 16, 2007, on the Department’s website at http://www.travel.state.gov.

U.S. citizens should carry their travel documents (i.e. U.S. Passport, Birth Certificate, picture ID’s, etc.) with them at all times or secure them by placing them in a safe, waterproof location. Additionally, all American citizens in the area are reminded to stay in contact with friends and family in the United States to keep them apprised of their current whereabouts.

Americans living or traveling in Jamaica or the Cayman Islands are encouraged to register with the U.S. Embassy through the State Department’s travel registration website, https://travelregistration.state.gov.

Updated information on travel in Jamaica or the Cayman Islands may be obtained from the Department of State by calling 1-888-407-4747 within the United States, or from overseas, 1-202-501-4444. For further information please consult the Consular Information Sheets for Jamaica and the Cayman Islands available via the Internet at http://travel.state.gov or contact the U.S. Embassy in Kingston at (876) 702-6000, after hours (876) 702-6055.