CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Thunder44]

Here is 18z GFDL on the NCEP site:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[deltadog03]

GFS is TOO SLOW moving dean along!

[Sabanic]

Still a few days out though before we can be completely sure of anything

[Evil Jeremy]

When is the VDM going to come in?

[Jagno]

>>There will be an awfully lot of...

Not me, I breathed a sign of relief. I'm heading down to Grand Isle tonight to drink, play cards and go speckle trout fishing in the am. I glad that I don't have to rush back home to overview evacuation plans and such. In the unlikely event that would become necessary, I can be packed and gone in 30 minutes. It will come down to Anniston, the ATL or Austin. All 3 options have their strong points .

Not glad for Galveston, Houston or points farther south, but we've got a few days. Unless things change drastically, I'm feeling a lot better about things than I was when I got back from lunch today (tempered with the understanding that good news for me is bad news for somebody else).

Steve

Ditto on that. We do have to hope Dean stays at a slower motion.

I wish I felt as confident as you guys do.

[Thunder44]

000
URNT12 KNHC 172356
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007
A. 17/23:32:00Z
B. 14 deg 52 min N
065 deg 02 min W
C. NA mb 2632 m
D. 119 kt
E. 302 deg 006 nm
F. 048 deg 130 kt
G. 309 deg 010 nm
H. 946 mb
I. 8 C/ 3045 m
J. 18 C/ 3045 m
K. 13 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. 16
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF302 0504A DEAN OB 03
MAX FL WIND 130 KT NW QUAD 23:29:00

[kozzieman]

I see where the GFDL has moved to the W into TX. WWL-TV 4 out of NOLA prepared a nice little video clip on their website earlier today which explained what factors would have to come into play to allow Dean to come up into S central LA but I'll imagine that video clip will be updated soon now that the GFDL model has been shifted further to the W into TX. So I guess the MS Gulf Coast is now considered safe because of that model's recent shift to the W into TX?

[aguaviva]

I am in Old San Juan. This is like watching Godzilla travelling through your neighborhood. An unfortunately because it comes from east to west a lot of countries are going to get pounded. It is increasingly blustery here tonight, gusty winds, no rain yet in Old San Juan but from where I live I can see it is raining off and on inland across the bay. The radius of TS winds is the big if for Puerto Rico tonight. The storm is growing in power and size. TS wind here has the capacity knock out a lot of electric power because of the many branches of trees that are under transmission lines on the island.

[Javlin]

Well since the Dean is moving due W now it is pretty easy to figure out the speed by sat. it covered that 1* in 3.5hrs roughly 17.1mph.It sure looked faster than that and maybe over the three hours it works out to 19-20mph.Oh and if it makes that 15.3N and 67W from this morning(5am NHC pt.) I will be impressed some good work on forcasting.Kevin

[MiamiensisWx]

346
WTNT34 KNHC 180000
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
800 PM AST FRI AUG 17 2007

...DEAN REACHES CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH AS ITS CENTER PASSES SOUTH OF
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...

AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST
OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE
HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER...AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM
CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO BARAHONA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUADELOUPE AND ITS
DEPENDENCIES. THIS WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER
TONIGHT.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING
ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST
KITTS...BARBUDA...AND ANGUILLA AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE
WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
HAITI FROM THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF
GUANTANAMO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
WESTERN CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.1 WEST OR ABOUT 800 MILES...
1290 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 255 MILES...
410 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 19 MPH...31 KM/HR. THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE
HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING WELL SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO TONIGHT.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AT LEAST 130
MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS NOW A CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
MILES...295 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS 946
MB...27.93 INCHES.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM
DEAN OVER PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...14.9 N...65.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 19 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[CrazyC83]

Where is the 8pm advisory??

Probably delayed awaiting the late vortex message.

[tolakram]

Not official yet but the drop indicated surface winds high enough to make this a cat 4.

If you look at the plot it's now moving due west, may be a cat 4 much earlier than though, and looks like it might miss the next forecast point by a good margin south. And here it was too far north just an hour or so ago. Probably just a wobble.

[MiamiensisWx]

Where is the 8pm advisory??

Probably delayed awaiting the late vortex message.

The latest 8 p.m. EDT advisory has arrived - Dean is a Category 4 hurricane!

[jacindc]

8 pm: 135 mph, 946 mb, Category 4.

EDITED to correct 135 mph wind speed (8 pm advisory was incorrect on first release)

[Cape Verde]

Here is 18z GFDL on the NCEP site:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

I can't make much perspective out of that link. I see it pass Cuba, and then it goes somewhere...

[jasons2k]

Here are the Houston area TXDOT signs:

[Thunder44]

The 8pm advisory says 130mph winds but that is not a Cat 4. That's still cat 3.

[linkerweather]

8 pm: 130 mph, 946 mb, Category 4.

Ok this is what I dont get. Cat 4 is 131-155

8 pm advisory says CAT 4 with winds of 130???
Edited to add:OK they just corrected wind speed to 135 mph, makes sense now

[marcane_1973]

Well....The best Hurricane models take Dean into Texas. The GFDL is further North while the HWRF is towards the Southern end of Texas. Not looking too good for Texas at all. Dean better slow down bigtime so he does not squeeze into that gap to make him turn more North. Maybe the trend will keep going South. Until that happens if I lived near the Texas coast I would be watching mr Dean with a very very close eye.

[Yankeegirl]

Not liking that Freeport strike... Thank God its a few days out and still more time for the models to do their flip flop dance....