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Extremeweatherguy wrote: Dean hasn't slowed down yet though...still moving at 21mph...and I don't really see how he would slow either. A strong high to the north would equal a fast motion. The only way he would really slow significantly is if he found a weakness or if the high became less powerful (which in turn would also likely lead to more of a WNW or NW motion).
KBBOCA wrote:MODS:
wxman57's post above is so clear and helpful.
viewtopic.php?p=1602005#p1602005
I wonder if it's time to really ramp up a Texas / Louisiana info thread ONLY for such postings by local pro mets, and for official advisory Emergency Mgmt type posts.
Maybe use the current evac thread, but rename it and post very clear guidelines as to what is appropriate?
All "chatter" (even "we're thinking of and praying for you) should be banned in that thread. Posts by and for local residents in the likely landfall areas only focusing on specific facts and practical info...
Just my two cents as a concerned outside observer. These kinds of posts shouldn't be buried in a 180+ page thread for those under great stress and needing timely and clear info.
oh yes, you're right.jacindc wrote:Extremeweatherguy wrote: Dean hasn't slowed down yet though...still moving at 21mph...and I don't really see how he would slow either. A strong high to the north would equal a fast motion. The only way he would really slow significantly is if he found a weakness or if the high became less powerful (which in turn would also likely lead to more of a WNW or NW motion).
Slowed a touch down to 19 mph in 8 pm advisory.
kozzieman wrote:I see where the GFDL has moved to the W into TX. WWL-TV 4 out of NOLA prepared a nice little video clip on their website earlier today which explained what factors would have to come into play to allow Dean to come up into S central LA but I'll imagine that video clip will be updated soon now that the GFDL model has been shifted further to the W into TX. So I guess the MS Gulf Coast is now considered safe because of that model's recent shift to the W into TX?
RL3AO wrote:Its 115kts but public advisories don't do knots.
115kts = Cat 4
115kts=132 mph which rounds down to 130.
Extremeweatherguy wrote:oh yes, you're right.jacindc wrote:Extremeweatherguy wrote: Dean hasn't slowed down yet though...still moving at 21mph...and I don't really see how he would slow either. A strong high to the north would equal a fast motion. The only way he would really slow significantly is if he found a weakness or if the high became less powerful (which in turn would also likely lead to more of a WNW or NW motion).
Slowed a touch down to 19 mph in 8 pm advisory.
kozzieman wrote:I see where the GFDL has moved to the W into TX. WWL-TV 4 out of NOLA prepared a nice little video clip on their website earlier today which explained what factors would have to come into play to allow Dean to come up into S central LA but I'll imagine that video clip will be updated soon now that the GFDL model has been shifted further to the W into TX. So I guess the MS Gulf Coast is now considered safe because of that model's recent shift to the W into TX?
weatherguru18 wrote:Ok...I'm having trouble here and I don't know what to tell people. I need some help.
Of "The Big 4" three take it to Brownsville and one takes it Laffeyette. My parents are ringing the phone off the hook wondering if they should spend the money to board up. I want to say that this thing will likely take a northly turn due to the Beta Drift and the UUL approaching from the west. However the consistancy with the gfs and others is uncanny at the very least. I just don't know what to tell people. I pray that if it hits, it is apparent that we are the target. I hope it doesn't pull a Rita and begin to turn toward us 36hrs in advance.
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