CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[KBBOCA]

From the Puerto Rico IR. Another classic image. Check out the shape and the way the outflow follows the shape of the islands. Stunning. And scary for those in its path.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/pr/ir2.jpg

[KatDaddy]

Lets not forget the Gilbert hysteria back in 1988 for Houston-Galveston. Models showed him coming to Houston.....well Accu-Weather did but the NHC did not. Many people were freaking out. They were taking all the billbards down along
I-45 when the storm was still in the NW Caribbean. Landfall was 100 miles S of Brownsville. I think Dean is on another Allen-Gilbert track in Mexico S of Brownsville with his current movement. Models mostly trending S tonight.

[vacanechaser]

But that seems to be changing. Katrina really didn't explode in size until she entered the GoM if memory serves.

of course.. when katrina formed, she was off the east coast of florida and moved inland at around 80mph... once in the gulf over water again and where some of the greatest heat content was, katrina expolded... dean has been developing for days now,, conditions are great for it to do this.. and the heat content is better for further development and intensification as dean nears jamacia..



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Recurve]

This post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

My two cents for the night, as much of a forecast as I'll do on Dean. Now a very bad storm and information is going to mean the difference for people in the path.



On satellite upper winds from northeast are pushing off the Gulf Coast. The low is UL cutoff (?) and not looking likely to diminish the high over the southeast. Isobars 1016 over the Gulf and 1012 to over the Yucatan. The low is concentrated and might vent Dean more than steer it. The 3-day NWS fronts shows a high over the Gulf. I'm suggesting a good chance mean Dean gets held down and west and keeps speeding along.

NWS hi-res surface map http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/lrgnamsfcwbg.gif

Even Florida is not absolutely in the clear to take a 3 day nap, but very low chance. Lower Keys have to be aware of a path any closer, a brush with western Cuba would bring swells and TS winds at least at this intensity. Miami and Florida upward have Hispanola and Cuba blocking the line now.

If the low doesn't diminish and moves west to influence Dean, I would look for at most a more northwest motion for a time, but then a rebuilding ridge and return to westward motion. That would concern me more, latitude gain meaning more trouble down the line to the west than north. The weather outside Dean doesn't look to me like a push northward all the way to LA at all. Have to admit to some bias against seeing another hit there.

Houston has to be prepared of course. All the regular preps, and plans for going the shortest distance when you need to evacuate, or leaving very early. Many people may take this weekend to simply get out, so there could be an early gridlock, with a better window to move later.

A thread for situation reports, local news, evac planning questions is due. I don't see it sticking to weather though because people have lots of practical quesitons too. That should be an open thread...and here try to keep on topic -- synoptics, steering, analysis, observations. Since the situation looks very good for my area I only want to help now not tell people what to do. Except don't panic.

Great pics everybody BTW.

[RBDnhm]

ref: DeltaDog03 - ULL slowing?

So, is a ULL moving a good thing or a bad thing? On this or another thread, I asked whether it was the ULL that was protecting us (TX/LA). Answer I got was something to the effect that it was that it was a high or high pressure ridge that would protect us. I have also heard that it is a common misconception that a surface low pressure area draws the hurricanes to an area. I am hoping to begin to understand some of the differences between upper level lows and surface lows, but I infer from DeltaDog's post that the ULL moving is a good thing, at least to me? Is the ULL dragging Dean west? So, if it starts to move north, doesn't that mean Dean will tend to be dragged north?

[RL3AO]

059
URNT15 KNHC 180100
AF302 0504A DEAN HDOB 19 20070818
005030 1552N 06427W 6965 03153 0071 +074 +074 130061 062 051 000 00
005100 1550N 06428W 6965 03147 0068 +074 +071 129062 062 053 000 00
005130 1549N 06429W 6969 03144 0068 +074 +074 128061 061 052 000 00
005200 1548N 06430W 6967 03147 0065 +075 +075 128059 060 053 000 00
005230 1547N 06432W 6968 03139 0061 +075 +075 128057 058 052 000 00
005300 1545N 06433W 6967 03139 0061 +074 +074 131060 061 053 003 00
005330 1544N 06434W 6966 03140 0045 +084 +075 135065 067 054 004 00
005400 1543N 06436W 6968 03136 0046 +082 +082 134071 075 054 004 00
005430 1542N 06437W 6962 03144 0049 +078 +078 130069 071 054 007 00
005500 1540N 06438W 6967 03135 0057 +071 +071 130066 067 054 007 03
005530 1539N 06440W 6967 03134 0060 +067 +067 132070 072 054 011 03
005600 1539N 06441W 6970 03127 0052 +071 +071 129067 069 054 011 03
005630 1537N 06443W 6955 03145 0066 +059 +059 128065 067 051 053 03
005700 1536N 06444W 6965 03132 0051 +072 +072 127065 069 999 999 03
005730 1535N 06445W 6972 03120 0042 +076 +076 129064 065 052 008 03
005800 1533N 06446W 6965 03125 0025 +086 +074 129066 066 055 006 00
005830 1532N 06447W 6968 03121 0017 +088 +088 129066 067 056 005 00
005900 1531N 06448W 6965 03120 0020 +084 +084 128065 066 056 006 00
005930 1530N 06449W 6957 03125 0038 +068 +068 126063 064 056 009 03
010000 1528N 06451W 6968 03111 0017 +081 +081 125060 061 052 006 03
$$

[weatherman21]

The 18Z WRF/NAM Model run places the storm just north of the Yucatan Peninsula by next Tuesday.
A few screenshots of the WRF Model run from 18Z Today are below; Winds are set at 700MB and you will also the Precipitable Water and MSL Pressure.

WRF Forecast for 15Z on 8/19:


WRF Forecast for 6Z on 8/20:


WRF Forecast for 6Z on 8/21:

[windstorm99]

[img][/img]

[Recurve]

ref: DeltaDog03 - ULL slowing?

<snip> Is the ULL dragging Dean west? So, if it starts to move north, doesn't that mean Dean will tend to be dragged north?

No. Dean is going west under a high. High is progged to move west with it.
For Dean to get caught up in that low it would have to be a lot farther north. It might get sheared by it then and kicked northeastward, but it's not a front or trough to recurve it completely. It's more of a top now -- but I hope a pro chimes in cause that's amateur talk.

You want a big high sitting over you with the path this is on for it to miss.

[hiflyer]

Watching a small fleet of bizjets into and out of Cayman....obviously picking up the boss and his family and getting them out in advance of the storm.....also Cayman Airways running extra sections as well. What I don't see, curiously, is the same for Jamaica...no amounts of biz jets and no extra sections. These last frames showing a little south of planned track bodes well for both islands if it holds....

For Grand Cayman
http://flightaware.com/live/airport/MWCR

For Jamaic
http://flightaware.com/live/airport/MKJP

or

http://flightaware.com/live/airport/MKJS

[RL3AO]

834
URNT15 KNHC 180110
AF302 0504A DEAN HDOB 20 20070818
010030 1527N 06452W 6968 03108 0009 +086 +082 127056 058 052 002 00
010100 1526N 06453W 6969 03104 0004 +089 +077 125057 058 052 003 00
010130 1525N 06455W 6965 03108 0002 +087 +082 124057 058 053 005 00
010200 1523N 06456W 6968 03100 0016 +075 +075 123058 060 054 005 03
010230 1522N 06458W 6963 03104 0002 +080 +080 122064 067 056 006 00
010300 1521N 06459W 6973 03083 9998 +079 +079 122065 070 057 006 00
010330 1520N 06500W 6970 03087 9998 +075 +075 123068 073 058 010 03
010400 1518N 06501W 6967 03081 9972 +090 +085 128071 073 059 004 00
010430 1517N 06502W 6967 03077 9967 +089 +089 129070 070 059 001 00
010500 1516N 06503W 6963 03072 9955 +092 +088 130071 071 061 003 00
010530 1514N 06505W 6966 03064 9970 +075 +075 127073 077 061 004 00
010600 1513N 06506W 6973 03045 9948 +087 +087 130076 078 060 007 00
010630 1512N 06508W 6937 03089 9939 +086 +086 130081 082 060 002 03
010700 1511N 06509W 6906 03115 9921 +089 +089 132084 087 062 002 00
010730 1510N 06510W 6968 03028 9918 +085 +085 128087 088 063 003 03
010800 1508N 06511W 6968 03017 9908 +083 +083 128089 090 067 006 00
010830 1507N 06512W 6954 03019 9914 +066 +066 128089 090 071 023 05
010900 1506N 06513W 6973 02986 9873 +084 +084 132096 098 076 007 03
010930 1505N 06514W 7083 02841 9845 +105 +093 131102 105 079 002 03
011000 1504N 06515W 6935 02994 9836 +085 +085 134109 111 085 003 03
$$

Approaching the eye...VDM within 30 minutes.

[Stephanie]

I'm really frightened for Jamaica and the Cayman Islands.

[HouTXmetro]

Well it's going to be South of the NHC points and is indicative of a stronger Ridge to it's North.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Between 18Z GFS and even GFDL shifting South, and Dean going South of 15ºN, I feel a lot more confident, in my non-professional way, that Houston will be spared. I suspect NHC path close, or even a tad too far North.


But, whether for Dean or next storm, or even no storm, I'm picking up a few days worth of drinking water, powdered milk, food with pull top cans, and topping off the gas tank. Better safe than sorry.


But I feel a lot better.

[Sanibel]

With this veer under track it makes you wonder if GFS is just plain right all along. So far it has been.

Isn't the SE US High set-up already? I mean if it is the forward speed being critical wouldn't matter because the High is already there and Dean will go under it no matter when it gets there. More so if he low-tracks like he is.

[HollynLA]

Well it's going to be South of the NHC points and is indicative of a stronger Ridge to it's North.

Yes, that's possible, but couldn't that just be a wobble?


(hey, that rhymed )

[fasterdisaster]

OH MY GOD. I leave for dinner and this thing is down 15 millibars and Category 4

[perk]

Lets not forget the Gilbert hysteria back in 1988 for Houston-Galveston. Models showed him coming to Houston.....well Accu-Weather did but the NHC did not. Many people were freaking out. They were taking all the billbards down along
I-45 when the storm was still in the NW Caribbean. Landfall was 100 miles S of Brownsville. I think Dean is on another Allen-Gilbert track in Mexico S of Brownsville with his current movement. Models mostly trending S tonight.

KatDaddy i hear you, but i'm not totally sold on that west track continuing, especially after reading wx57's post earlier.We both know that he's not an alarmist, and he's getting his 5 gallon gas containers out of storage.

[Frank P]

Well it's going to be South of the NHC points and is indicative of a stronger Ridge to it's North.

Yes, that's possible, but couldn't that just be a wobble?


(hey, that rhymed )

Naw holly its been tracking due west for the past three to four hours..

here's the poop...

. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/pr/loop-wv.html

[Extremeweatherguy]

If you watch the eye movement on Puerto rico radar you can see slight wobbles north and south with a general west heading. Should be interesting to see if a more WNW movement can develop this evening.

Here is a link to the radar: http://www.weatherunderground.com/radar ... g_off=9999

All it would really take to get back on track would be one decent north wobble. Right now it is only slightly south of the NHC track.