CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[RL3AO]

198
URNT15 KNHC 180121
AF302 0504A DEAN HDOB 21 20070818
011030 1503N 06516W 6907 03005 9804 +088 +088 137112 115 085 006 03
011100 1502N 06518W 6960 02914 9768 +093 +093 133118 121 092 006 03
011130 1500N 06519W 6964 02871 9719 +097 +097 133127 130 100 006 03
011200 1500N 06520W 6960 02816 9653 +103 +103 133133 136 110 010 00
011230 1459N 06522W 6967 02744 9598 +089 +089 138130 135 111 015 00
011300 1458N 06523W 6970 02675 9505 +111 +111 131094 110 105 010 03
011330 1456N 06524W 6970 02640 9424 +156 +125 122051 059 075 005 00
011400 1455N 06525W 6971 02632 9402 +173 +105 130034 040 048 004 03
011430 1453N 06526W 6959 02643 9397 +172 +103 142025 028 035 001 03
011500 1452N 06527W 6967 02623 9378 +185 +084 145017 022 034 002 03
011530 1451N 06529W 6976 02607 9363 +193 +085 136004 009 032 002 00
011600 1450N 06530W 6965 02617 9358 +198 +092 306017 032 043 002 03
011630 1448N 06531W 6972 02634 9409 +171 +115 305056 072 096 008 00
011700 1447N 06532W 6974 02697 9990 +103 +999 299099 112 118 032 05
011730 1445N 06533W 6961 02793 9990 +087 +999 302108 113 097 049 05
011800 1444N 06533W 6956 02874 9713 +097 +097 295092 096 088 042 05
011830 1443N 06534W 6967 02889 9715 +120 +104 294084 089 084 025 00
011900 1442N 06535W 6969 02910 9757 +113 +113 297075 078 078 008 00
011930 1441N 06536W 6969 02938 9805 +085 +085 307070 072 076 012 05
012000 1440N 06538W 6956 02977 9823 +101 +101 307070 072 999 999 03
$$

935.8mb/133kt FL.

[Tommedic]

Although I am not a trained meterologist, it is my humble opinion that from LA to Mexico, the Emergency Managers should now be "dusting off" their plans for a "MAJOR" storm and its effects on their area. Carefully and calmly they should be reminding their communities that even if it doesn't strike them that there will be many, many people in need of places to evacuate to, after the storm assistance, as well as "MOST IMPORTANTLY" in my humble opinion, lots and lots of prayers. Now is the time to determine who will need assistance in transportation, medical assistance, as well as how to manage all the help that will pour into an area when a strike does occur. I know that I may be in minority, but I still cannot feel comfortable with a strike that occurs in left leaning models. I hope I am wrong, but if I am not, we will all need to mobilize our resources to aid the victims. May God bless each and everyon who will be experiencing this storm, because he does look "MEAN"

[Mathias]

Between 18Z GFS and even GFDL shifting South, and Dean going South of 15ºN, I feel a lot more confident, in my non-professional way, that Houston will be spared. I suspect NHC path close, or even a tad too far North.


But, whether for Dean or next storm, or even no storm, I'm picking up a few days worth of drinking water, powdered milk, food with pull top cans, and topping off the gas tank. Better safe than sorry.


But I feel a lot better.

Yes, I definitely feel better about this as well, but still wary. Today, I bought a few six gallon gas cans and filled them to the brim, plus the food essentials just in case Dean does come a-knocking. While I'm skeptical about the GFDL as the outlier, I will not outright dismiss the scenario it presents with a Freeport strike, due to its past successes. However, I believe the current synoptic set-up could be exposing a weakness in GFDL's reliability. This is just my opinion and may be jaded by my bias as a Houston resident, Southeast Houston, no less.

[LeeJet]

Has this officially undergone RI?

[Swimdude]

I know this is probably outrageous, but the GFDL model run on wunderground.com is showing a 169kt storm in the GOM... That would be 192 mph... This is outrageous, right?...

[jacindc]

Anyone want to weigh in on the 18Z WRF (posted here)? Shows Dean just north of the tip of the Yucatan at 6Z on 8/21.

[RL3AO]

thats old

[wxmann_91]

Recurve,

That's an old VDM.

[Air Force Met]

Lets not forget the Gilbert hysteria back in 1988 for Houston-Galveston. Models showed him coming to Houston.....well Accu-Weather did but the NHC did not. Many people were freaking out. They were taking all the billbards down along
I-45 when the storm was still in the NW Caribbean. Landfall was 100 miles S of Brownsville. I think Dean is on another Allen-Gilbert track in Mexico S of Brownsville with his current movement. Models mostly trending S tonight.

Well...let's be fair. At one time the NHC did have it coming into Houston. Heck...at one time I think they had it going into Louisiana. But I remember the track into Houston because the track carried it into CLL...where I was in undergrad. We were all on the 12th floor of the O&M building looking at the forecast of 100 mph winds as it moved over CLL and freaking out.

And then out came Dr Lyons and said: "Quit freaking out...it's going south of Brownsville. Now go to class."

[HURAKAN]

Really not bad for a Cat. 4.

[RL3AO]

805
URNT15 KNHC 180132
AF302 0504A DEAN HDOB 22 20070818
012030 1438N 06539W 6963 02988 9833 +112 +112 310064 066 065 038 03
012100 1437N 06540W 6969 02997 9863 +100 +100 311061 064 063 014 00
012130 1436N 06541W 6965 03013 9876 +102 +102 310055 057 060 006 00
012200 1435N 06542W 6968 03024 9892 +103 +103 307054 058 056 009 00
012230 1434N 06544W 6963 03041 9904 +104 +104 310050 051 055 009 00
012300 1433N 06545W 6963 03049 9913 +104 +098 314053 056 051 003 00
012330 1431N 06546W 6971 03052 9934 +097 +097 314054 057 052 000 00
012400 1430N 06548W 6973 03055 9943 +096 +096 307044 045 052 000 00
012430 1429N 06549W 6964 03070 9955 +091 +091 309044 045 049 001 00
012500 1429N 06549W 6964 03070 9962 +090 +089 311046 046 049 000 03
012530 1427N 06551W 6965 03082 9968 +089 +089 311045 046 048 001 00
012600 1425N 06553W 6968 03080 9975 +088 +088 313043 045 048 002 00
012630 1424N 06554W 6968 03084 9981 +086 +086 313039 040 047 003 00
012700 1423N 06555W 6967 03092 9990 +084 +084 313041 042 047 003 00
012730 1422N 06556W 6968 03093 0000 +080 +080 310043 045 048 004 00
012800 1421N 06558W 6967 03097 9999 +083 +083 302048 049 045 006 00
012830 1420N 06559W 6969 03100 9995 +089 +087 297045 046 043 006 00
012900 1418N 06600W 6964 03106 0000 +087 +087 299043 043 043 002 00
012930 1417N 06601W 6967 03108 0007 +083 +083 301041 042 043 000 00
013000 1416N 06603W 6968 03108 0006 +088 +088 303038 039 042 000 00
$$

[miamicanes177]

011200 1500N 06520W 6960 02816 9653 +103 +103 133133 136 110 010 00

136kts flight level...this is the max fl wind...140mph

EDIT: NHC 145mph

[Cape Verde]

I know this is probably outrageous, but the GFDL model run on wunderground.com is showing a 169kt storm in the GOM... That would be 192 mph... This is outrageous, right?...

That doesn't sound reasonable. Do you have a link to that?

[ConvergenceZone]

With this veer under track it makes you wonder if GFS is just plain right all along. So far it has been.

Isn't the SE US High set-up already? I mean if it is the forward speed being critical wouldn't matter because the High is already there and Dean will go under it no matter when it gets there. More so if he low-tracks like he is.

I think you are right, and the more I study the maps tonight the more I think it's a distinct possibility that this storm may track so far south that it does go into the Pacific(just as the GFS is showing it will)....I'm still glad it's getting all this attention though, because even if that is the case, there are still alot of folks in the islands and whevere this thing decides to track inland.

[HollynLA]

I know this is probably outrageous, but the GFDL model run on wunderground.com is showing a 169kt storm in the GOM... That would be 192 mph... This is outrageous, right?...

Yes, that's outrageous. Anything that would get hit at that wind speed would be literally wiped off the map.

[tolakram]

011200 1500N 06520W 6960 02816 9653 +103 +103 133133 136 110 010 00

136kts flight level...this is the max fl wind...140mph

136 is the gust, the average is just to the left of it 133

[Starburst]

Code: Select all

Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 18th day of the month at 01:32Z
Date: August 18, 2007
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last digit of aircraft registration number is 302)
Storm Number: 04
Storm Name: Dean (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 5
Observation Number: 22
 
Time (Z) /  Coordinates /  Acft. Static Air Press. /  Acft. Geo. Hgt. /  Extrap. Sfc. Press. /  Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) /  Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind /  SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind /  SFMR Rain Rate
01:20:30 14.63N 65.65W 696.3 mb 2,988 m 983.3 mb From 310° (NW) at 64 kts (73.6 mph) 66 kts (~ 75.9 mph) 65 kts* 38 mm/hr*
01:21:00 14.62N 65.67W 696.9 mb 2,997 m 986.3 mb From 311° (NW) at 61 kts (70.1 mph) 64 kts (~ 73.6 mph) 63 kts 14 mm/hr
01:21:30 14.60N 65.68W 696.5 mb 3,013 m 987.6 mb From 310° (NW) at 55 kts (63.2 mph) 57 kts (~ 65.5 mph) 60 kts 6 mm/hr
01:22:00 14.58N 65.70W 696.8 mb 3,024 m 989.2 mb From 307° (NW) at 54 kts (62.1 mph) 58 kts (~ 66.7 mph) 56 kts 9 mm/hr
01:22:30 14.57N 65.73W 696.3 mb 3,041 m 990.4 mb From 310° (NW) at 50 kts (57.5 mph) 51 kts (~ 58.6 mph) 55 kts 9 mm/hr
01:23:00 14.55N 65.75W 696.3 mb 3,049 m 991.3 mb From 314° (NW) at 53 kts (60.9 mph) 56 kts (~ 64.4 mph) 51 kts 3 mm/hr
01:23:30 14.52N 65.77W 697.1 mb 3,052 m 993.4 mb From 314° (NW) at 54 kts (62.1 mph) 57 kts (~ 65.5 mph) 52 kts 0 mm/hr
01:24:00 14.50N 65.80W 697.3 mb 3,055 m 994.3 mb From 307° (NW) at 44 kts (50.6 mph) 45 kts (~ 51.7 mph) 52 kts 0 mm/hr
01:24:30 14.48N 65.82W 696.4 mb 3,070 m 995.5 mb From 309° (NW) at 44 kts (50.6 mph) 45 kts (~ 51.7 mph) 49 kts 1 mm/hr
01:25:00 14.48N 65.82W 696.4 mb 3,070 m 996.2 mb From 311° (NW) at 46 kts (52.9 mph) 46 kts (~ 52.9 mph) 49 kts* 0 mm/hr*
01:25:30 14.45N 65.85W 696.5 mb 3,082 m 996.8 mb From 311° (NW) at 45 kts (51.7 mph) 46 kts (~ 52.9 mph) 48 kts 1 mm/hr
01:26:00 14.42N 65.88W 696.8 mb 3,080 m 997.5 mb From 313° (NW) at 43 kts (49.4 mph) 45 kts (~ 51.7 mph) 48 kts 2 mm/hr
01:26:30 14.40N 65.90W 696.8 mb 3,084 m 998.1 mb From 313° (NW) at 39 kts (44.8 mph) 40 kts (~ 46.0 mph) 47 kts 3 mm/hr
01:27:00 14.38N 65.92W 696.7 mb 3,092 m - From 313° (NW) at 41 kts (47.1 mph) 42 kts (~ 48.3 mph) 47 kts 3 mm/hr
01:27:30 14.37N 65.93W 696.8 mb 3,093 m 1000.0 mb From 310° (NW) at 43 kts (49.4 mph) 45 kts (~ 51.7 mph) 48 kts 4 mm/hr
01:28:00 14.35N 65.97W 696.7 mb 3,097 m 999.9 mb From 302° (WNW) at 48 kts (55.2 mph) 49 kts (~ 56.3 mph) 45 kts 6 mm/hr
01:28:30 14.33N 65.98W 696.9 mb 3,100 m 999.5 mb From 297° (WNW) at 45 kts (51.7 mph) 46 kts (~ 52.9 mph) 43 kts 6 mm/hr
01:29:00 14.30N 66.00W 696.4 mb 3,106 m 1000.0 mb From 299° (WNW) at 43 kts (49.4 mph) 43 kts (~ 49.4 mph) 43 kts 2 mm/hr
01:29:30 14.28N 66.02W 696.7 mb 3,108 m 1000.7 mb From 301° (WNW) at 41 kts (47.1 mph) 42 kts (~ 48.3 mph) 43 kts 0 mm/hr
01:30:00 14.27N 66.05W 696.8 mb 3,108 m 1000.6 mb From 303° (WNW/NW) at 38 kts (43.7 mph) 39 kts (~ 44.8 mph) 42 kts 0 mm/hr
At 01:20:30Z (first observation), the observation was 263 miles (423 km) to the S (174°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
At 01:30:00Z (last observation), the observation was 286 miles (461 km) to the S (180°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
 

 


[weatherguru18]

Louisiana has issued a STATE OF EMERGENCY!

[Thunder44]

000
WTNT64 KNHC 180135
TCUAT4
HURRICANE DEAN TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
930 PM AST FRI AUG 17 2007


DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY
INVESTIGATING HURRICANE DEAN INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
HAVE INCREASED TO 145 MPH...CATEGORY FOUR ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[miamicanes177]

136 is the gust, the average is just to the left of it 133

133kt is the 30 second average and this is not used by the NHC to determine the sustained wind speed. The 10 second wind of 136kts is used.