CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[HollynLA]

Louisiana has issued a STATE OF EMERGENCY!

so did Texas, it doesn't really mean anything more than they learned a lesson since katrina. Need those funds available if needed.

[wxmann_91]

VDM

646
URNT12 KNHC 180136
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007
A. 18/01:15:40Z
B. 14 deg 51 min N
065 deg 29 min W
C. NA mb 2579 m
D. 111 kt
E. 044 deg 011 nm
F. 136 deg 138 kt
G. 044 deg 011 nm
H. 936 mb
I. 10 C/ 3056 m
J. 20 C/ 3047 m
K. 008 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. 15
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF302 0504A DEAN OB 09
MAX FL WIND 138 KT NE QUAD 01:12:20 Z

[fasterdisaster]

000
WTNT64 KNHC 180135
TCUAT4
HURRICANE DEAN TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
930 PM AST FRI AUG 17 2007


DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY
INVESTIGATING HURRICANE DEAN INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
HAVE INCREASED TO 145 MPH...CATEGORY FOUR ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

OH MA GAWD

[ConvergenceZone]

Louisiana has issued a STATE OF EMERGENCY!

Well, I guess even if it's only got about a 5% of going there(just an opinion, as one MET stated this earlier), then it's still worth being prepared just in case...

[vacanechaser]

Has this officially undergone RI?

that would be a yes... i think so


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Sanibel]

936

I think we can all conclude direct progress to category 5 from this behavior.

[Ixolib]

I know this is probably outrageous, but the GFDL model run on wunderground.com is showing a 169kt storm in the GOM... That would be 192 mph... This is outrageous, right?...

Yes, that's outrageous. Anything that would get hit at that wind speed would be literally wiped off the map.

Not to mention the surge a storm like that would create - especially if it's got any size to it!!!

[fasterdisaster]

VDM

646
URNT12 KNHC 180136
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007
A. 18/01:15:40Z
B. 14 deg 51 min N
065 deg 29 min W
C. NA mb 2579 m
D. 111 kt
E. 044 deg 011 nm
F. 136 deg 138 kt
G. 044 deg 011 nm
H. 936 mb
I. 10 C/ 3056 m
J. 20 C/ 3047 m
K. 008 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. 15
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF302 0504A DEAN OB 09
MAX FL WIND 138 KT NE QUAD 01:12:20 Z

GEEZ!

[ftolmsteen]

Sometimes GFDL over exaggerates the intensity of hurricanes, but you never know. Especially if it misses land entirely.

[JTD]

Posted already in another thread but OMG:!!

000
WTNT64 KNHC 180135
TCUAT4
HURRICANE DEAN TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
930 PM AST FRI AUG 17 2007


DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY
INVESTIGATING HURRICANE DEAN INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
HAVE INCREASED TO 145 MPH...CATEGORY FOUR ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[Pearl River]

Ol' Dino maybe on his way to creating his own environment.

[RL3AO]

Like I said in chat, the GDFL can overdo it. It bombed Ioke out to 190kt/860mb.

[jaxfladude]

Here is a news video from Brownsville, Texas about the local Multi-Agency Coordination Center, or MACC, as it prepares for a possible direct hit or near hit with Hurricane Dean.

*This link will use the stand alone Windows Media player via a pop up asking if you wish to let the link use your Windows Media player....



http://www.krgv.com/Video/News/977707.wvx

[Ola]

Im on the north shore of Puerto Rico and its very very windy here. I did not expect this. It is not raining yet but it is very windy, probably about 20mph gusting in 30s. Weird.

[milankovitch]

I know this is probably outrageous, but the GFDL model run on wunderground.com is showing a 169kt storm in the GOM... That would be 192 mph... This is outrageous, right?...

Yes, that's outrageous. Anything that would get hit at that wind speed would be literally wiped off the map.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

Outrageous yes but that is what it's predicting.

[weatherguru18]

Louisiana has issued a STATE OF EMERGENCY!

so did Texas, it doesn't really mean anything more than they learned a lesson since katrina. Need those funds available if needed.

I need verification please...this info is being passed on!

[JTD]

Jamaica is in big trouble:

FLASH: Could be unprecedented event for Jamaica; direct hit with 150 MPH sustained winds [topping Hurricane Gilbert's 135 MPH winds [Sept. 1988] and Charlie's 100 MPH winds in 1951]... Population of Jamaica is nearly 3 million people; and is 49th most densely-populated country in world...

[vacanechaser]

I know this is probably outrageous, but the GFDL model run on wunderground.com is showing a 169kt storm in the GOM... That would be 192 mph... This is outrageous, right?...

Yes, that's outrageous. Anything that would get hit at that wind speed would be literally wiped off the map.

well, here it is one frame past the 169knots... at 170knots just north of the yucatan





Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[tolakram]

136 is the gust, the average is just to the left of it 133

133kt is the 30 second average and this is not used by the NHC to determine the sustained wind speed. The 10 second wind of 136kts is used.

Woops, sorry, thanks for setting that straight.

[Evil Jeremy]

Well, it seams that were going back to seprate topic's for our personal forecasts. Anyways, my forecast tonight is a monster in size.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

EJ’s Forecasts
Major Hurricane Dean
Advisory 11
9:10PMEDT


Official Watches and Warnings:

The government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Hurricane Warning along portions of the southern coast of the Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the Haiti/Dominican Republic border...and a Tropical Storm Warning from Cabo engano westward to Barahona. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours. A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Guadeloupe and its dependencies. This warning will likely be discontinued later tonight. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the following islands of the Lesser Antilles ...Montserrat ...Antigua ...Nevis ...St Kitts ...Barbuda ...and Anguilla and the British Virgin Islands. The warning will likely be discontinued later tonight. A Tropical Storm Warning also remains in effect for the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect for Haiti from the Haiti/Dominican Republic border to Port-au-Prince. A Hurricane Watch is also in effect for Jamaica. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area... generally within 36 hours. A tropical storm watch is in effect for portions of southeastern Cuba...from the province of Camaguey eastward to the province of Guantanamo. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36
hours.

Recommended Watches and Warnings:

I currently recommend a Hurricane warning for the Island of Jamaica. I also recommend a Hurricane Warning for Haiti and a Tropical Storm Warning for southern Cuba, with a Hurricane Watch on the part of Cuba under a TS warning. I also think that the watches and warnings for anything east of Puerto Rico right now should be terminated.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Major Hurricane Dean is becoming a massive threat in the Eastern Caribbean. The residents in Jamaica should be currently preparing for a Category 4, possibly 5 hurricane.

All day today, a distinct pinhole eye has formed. Normally, a pinhole eye means rapid intensification, and Dean has been strengthening all day long. Using the latest Hurricane Hunter data, I am estimating Major Hurricane Dean as a 140 MPH Category 4 hurricane with a pressure of 946 MB. It is very possible that we will wake up tomorrow morning to a Category 5 hurricane.

Tonight’s computer models are disagreeing with another, so the updated track is a blend of them all.

Major Hurricane Dean is currently heading westward at about 19 MPH. This westward motion should continue through the next few days followed by a general WNW and eventually NW heading in about 4-5 days.

Over the course of the day today, Dean has had some major wobbles, and for a while today heading WSW.

Now that Dean has passed through the Lesser Antilles, the next major area of concern will be Jamaica. People in Jamaica should start preparing for a Category 4-5 direct strike.

Tonight, Major Hurricane Dean should experience an effect called the “Diurnal Maximum”. This effect will cause cold cloud tops to form overnight, which could prompt further strengthening.


Interests along the Caribbean, as well as the SE USA and the GOM should closely monitor this system.

Hurricane Hunters are currently flying in Hurricane Dean. Their data will be incorporated into my forecasts today.

The center of Major Hurricane Dean is currently at around 14.9N and 65.1N.

INITIAL 140 MPH
12HR 145 MPH
24HR 155 MPH
48HR 160 MPH
72HR 150 MPH
96HR 105 MPH *Inland
120HR 115 MPH

(Graphics Coming Up)