CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Innotech]

I memorized every country and island nation in the world for usesl ike this. No way an educated person could mistake Jamaica for guatemala. But I guess reports get rushed and someone makes a spur of the moment error.

[CrazyC83]

031
URNT15 KNHC 180212
AF302 0504A DEAN HDOB 26 20070818
020030 1330N 06601W 6967 03153 0060 +087 +067 261028 030 033 000 03
020100 1330N 06559W 6967 03151 0062 +084 +065 258028 029 032 002 00
020130 1330N 06557W 6965 03156 0061 +085 +061 259029 029 031 000 00
020200 1329N 06555W 6965 03154 0055 +091 +055 259030 032 030 000 00
020230 1329N 06553W 6967 03157 0052 +095 +050 257031 031 029 000 00
020300 1329N 06551W 6969 03151 0054 +094 +052 255032 033 030 000 00
020330 1329N 06549W 6963 03160 0056 +090 +054 253033 034 032 000 00
020400 1330N 06547W 6971 03149 0055 +090 +057 254033 033 031 005 00
020430 1330N 06545W 6967 03154 0056 +090 +057 253034 034 033 004 00
020500 1330N 06543W 6967 03151 0060 +089 +057 253034 034 035 003 00
020530 1330N 06541W 6967 03154 0059 +087 +057 254033 033 029 000 00
020600 1330N 06539W 6965 03155 0061 +085 +059 252034 034 029 000 00
020630 1330N 06537W 6968 03154 0058 +088 +055 247033 034 029 000 03
020700 1330N 06535W 6969 03153 0058 +089 +056 241033 033 029 000 00
020730 1330N 06533W 6964 03157 0062 +085 +057 242032 033 028 000 00
020800 1330N 06531W 6966 03153 0064 +084 +059 244032 032 027 000 00
020830 1330N 06529W 6968 03152 0066 +082 +061 247032 033 029 000 00
020900 1330N 06527W 6967 03151 0066 +082 +060 248032 032 029 000 00
020930 1330N 06525W 6968 03150 0062 +085 +058 249032 033 029 000 00
021000 1330N 06523W 6968 03151 0061 +085 +062 242031 032 031 000 00
$$

[vacanechaser]

Here's trusting that models are always wrong. I'm directly in the path of those of those 170 kt winds on that model run, and I don't think my house is built THAT sturdy.

well, it actually does not bring it in to texas that strong.. here it is below:





Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

I hope you meant not that strong as in the 170knts the previous poster said about his house not being sturdy. Because 145knots I think would be pretty strong. CAT 5 into the Houston area.

yes i meant not that strong as in 170kts..


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Sanibel]

I think somebody said GFDL measures above the surface at 100 feet or something like that. Winds are slightly higher up there.

[JtSmarts]

00Z 18 guidance tracks have shifted southward again. Two camps appear to be developing..one deep in the Bay of Campeche and the other aimed at the coast just S of TX...GFDL is very far north. Even the steady right GFS ensembles are starting to trend southward on the 00Z runs. Too early to determine if this is a real trend...need it to hold through Saturday and then we shall know more.

If a more southward trend continues that would be great for Tx! (However horrible for Mexico )

[HeeBGBz]

We had this on the Sun-Herald website.

Barbour, FEMA warn residents to have a plan if Dean turns toward Gulf

JACKSON, Miss. --Gov. Haley Barbour and FEMA officials on Friday warned Mississippians to prepare a plan of action in case Hurricane Dean turns and threatens the Gulf Coast next week.

http://www.sunherald.com/news/breaking_news/story/122591.html

[Extremeweatherguy]

00Z 18 guidance tracks have shifted southward again. Two camps appear to be developing..one deep in the Bay of Campeche and the other aimed at the coast just S of TX...GFDL is very far north. Even the steady right GFS ensembles are starting to trend southward on the 00Z runs. Too early to determine if this is a real trend...need it to hold through Saturday and then we shall know more.

The 00z GFS ensembles are already out? I thought they came out later this evening alongside or just after the operational GFS run?

[fsusurfer]

As I said before, I just dont see this storm making much of a turn to the NW or NNW for that matter. It has been traveling on almost the exact same path since formation, and its currently going due west. This sucker might pop out in the Pacific.

[marcane_1973]

Does the new GFDL model come out at 11 tonight?

[Sanibel]

You can see why "Graveyard of the Atlantic" isn't true for all storms that enter the east Caribbean.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Does the new GFDL model come out at 11 tonight?

around 1:30am EDT/12:30am CDT I believe.

[Cape Verde]

well, it actually does not bring it in to texas that strong.. here it is below:

I can't do knots to mph easily, but I don't think my house would really notice the difference. It might take a little longer to flatten.

[vacanechaser]

As I said before, I just dont see this storm making much of a turn to the NW or NNW for that matter. It has been traveling on almost the exact same path since formation, and its currently going due west. This sucker might pop out in the Pacific.

thats because it has had a strong deep layer ridge to its north pushing it along... soo, it could start to feel some pull from the ull near florida... the ridge will be weaker allowing for at least a slight northward bend... i will say this, most times, the nhc errors to the left.. usually the hurricane makes landfall to the right of the forecast track, sometimes with a decent error...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricnane Intercept Research Team

[Sabanic]

well, it actually does not bring it in to texas that strong.. here it is below:

I can't do knots to mph easily, but I don't think my house would really notice the difference. It might take a little longer to flatten.

[jaxfladude]

Read this for an another Hurricane Dean related news story(sorry if already posted many pages to read)
NASA kept a close eye on Hurricane Dean as it churned through the Caribbean Sea on Friday and said it may cut short space shuttle Endeavour's flight if the storm threatens Mission Control in Houston.

The U.S. space agency said it would shorten a planned six-hour spacewalk on Saturday, and look for other ways to get ready for a Tuesday landing instead of the currently scheduled Wednesday.

"We'd really like to protect an option to be able to end the mission on Tuesday," mission management team chairman Leroy Cain said.

[CrazyC83]

175
URNT15 KNHC 180221
AF302 0504A DEAN HDOB 27 20070818
021030 1330N 06521W 6965 03156 0065 +084 +065 242033 033 029 000 00
021100 1330N 06519W 6968 03151 0062 +084 +066 243035 036 030 000 00
021130 1330N 06517W 6966 03153 0065 +079 +073 242035 036 029 000 00
021200 1330N 06515W 6967 03152 0059 +085 +073 237033 033 030 000 00
021230 1330N 06513W 6967 03151 0055 +088 +071 238034 034 030 000 00
021300 1330N 06511W 6965 03154 0062 +083 +072 238034 034 029 000 00
021330 1330N 06509W 6967 03153 0064 +083 +069 234033 034 031 000 00
021400 1329N 06507W 6969 03151 0064 +083 +064 234032 033 031 000 00
021430 1329N 06506W 6967 03156 0061 +085 +068 234035 036 032 000 00
021500 1329N 06504W 6967 03156 0064 +084 +063 233037 037 033 000 00
021530 1329N 06502W 6968 03156 0066 +083 +070 231036 037 032 000 00
021600 1329N 06500W 6965 03161 0069 +080 +079 231034 036 032 000 00
021630 1329N 06458W 6965 03160 0069 +083 +074 230033 033 030 000 00
021700 1329N 06456W 6967 03157 0066 +084 +071 229034 035 030 000 00
021730 1329N 06454W 6965 03163 0071 +082 +077 235034 035 031 000 00
021800 1329N 06452W 6969 03157 0066 +085 +076 235034 035 028 000 00
021830 1329N 06450W 6967 03158 0067 +088 +064 228036 036 030 000 00
021900 1329N 06448W 6968 03161 0066 +089 +070 226035 035 030 000 00
021930 1329N 06446W 6967 03163 0072 +085 +068 225035 035 032 001 00
022000 1329N 06444W 6968 03160 0069 +087 +073 224037 037 032 001 00
$$

[Praxus]

Don't forget the Caymans. Could be Ivan all over again, or worse.

[linkerweather]

I'll will give the FOX guy a pass....as a TV met, I can tell you that you have 25 different things going on at one time, people talking through your ear piece, you might have looked at something right before going on. He could've just looked at a model run and was planning on talking about the southernmost run through Guatemala. Last night I was talking about S. Texas and called it New Mexico. It happens. And I didn't even realize I said it until my director told me after I said it.

[RL3AO]

I can't do knots to mph easily, but I don't think my house would really notice the difference. It might take a little longer to flatten.

145 kt = 165 mph

[tolakram]

Still heading due west. I'm just amazed how rapidly this thing intensified.