CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[KBBOCA]

Looking at the AVN IR loop of the floater, Dean is headed due west. Gonna miss the next NHC forecast point well south if this continues.

That could be good news for Jamaica. But not Yucatan or the Gulf...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

[marcane_1973]

As I said before, I just dont see this storm making much of a turn to the NW or NNW for that matter. It has been traveling on almost the exact same path since formation, and its currently going due west. This sucker might pop out in the Pacific.

thats because it has had a strong deep layer ridge to its north pushing it along... soo, it could start to feel some pull from the ull near florida... the ridge will be weaker allowing for at least a slight northward bend... i will say this, most times, the nhc errors to the left.. usually the hurricane makes landfall to the right of the forecast track, sometimes with a decent error...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricnane Intercept Research Team

That would be the case almost always on the East coast. Anytime the models show a storm headed towards say Charleston or Myrtle Beach you can bet it ends up somewhere near Wilmington or Morehead City.

[HouTXmetro]

Still heading due west. I'm just amazed how rapidly this thing intensified.

the GFDL really underestimated the strength of the Ridge

[CYCLONE MIKE]

vanechaser, the northeasterly flow over Jamaica. Will this have any implication on the north turn or will the steering currents be westerly when dean approaches Jamaica.

[NcentralFlaguy]

Could whats left over from Erin cause a weakness in the ridge? has anyone addressed that, or is this not a possibility?

[StrongWind]

Come on guys...work with me. Did Texas issue a state of emergency? I can't find it anywhere.

Perhaps they don't use the phrase "State of Emergency" in TX but here is what the gov is saying:

http://www.governor.state.tx.us/

[jaxfladude]

I'll will give the FOX guy a pass....as a TV met, I can tell you that you have 25 different things going on at one time, people talking through your ear piece, you might have looked at something right before going on. He could've just looked at a model run and was planning on talking about the southernmost run through Guatemala. Last night I was talking about S. Texas and called it New Mexico. It happens. And I didn't even realize I said it until my director told me after I said it.

I know it just made me have a chuckle during this very serious time with Dean...
Prayers for whomever has already gotten hit or will be hit by Dean....

[Sanibel]

This veer west has to pull up very soon or it's a trend left of guidance. Stronger ridge and straighter track west (GFS). So far it's dead west along 15 latitude line.

[ConvergenceZone]

Looking at the AVN IR loop of the floater, Dean is headed due west. Gonna miss the next NHC forecast point well south if this continues.

That could be good news for Jamaica. But not Yucatan or the Gulf...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

Yea, I think after they look at the current movement and the updated compute models, they will move the track South on either the next advisory or the one after.......Man, based on how strong this is, I feel really bad for Mexcio. I just hope and pray that Yucatan takes a good amount of steam out of it before it landfalls again. Some hurricanes have never recovered once they hit the Yucatan... One thing for sure is that if they move the track further south, they will also show it weaker in the gulf since it will be going over a wider area of Yucatan as opposed to just the tip, so that will be good news, let's hope!...

[Derek Ortt]

viewtopic.php?f=29&t=97192

I made a very slight shift south... but am already regreting it

[Stormcenter]

Wow that GFDL model has me worried big time.

[ftolmsteen]

I can't do knots to mph easily, but I don't think my house would really notice the difference. It might take a little longer to flatten.

145 kt = 165 mph

Knots X 1.15 = MPH

[jacindc]

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=29&t=97192

I made a very slight shift south... but am already regreting it

What's making you regret it?

[Evil Jeremy]

Why do all of the forecasts have to be merged, anyways? Also, If i can make a suggestion, mabey you could make a catagory for Personal forecasts, like u have a catagory for Tropical Storms and another one for archives.

[jasons2k]

Still heading due west. I'm just amazed how rapidly this thing intensified.

the GFDL really underestimated the strength of the Ridge

On radar, it's wobbling north again. It may hit the point after all. Still too early to tell...

[HouTXmetro]

Wow that GFDL model has me worried big time.

For what? it's an outlier now.

[Cape Verde]

145 kt = 165 mph

Thanks.

I'm not right on the coast, so maybe I'll just assume that a tree branch coming into my living room at 120 mph is sort of expected during an August thunderstorm. Yikes.

[Innotech]

I won't. As a professional, there is no excuse for that. That would be the equivelant of stating that A-Rod was at the plate, when it indeed was Barry Bonds.

not really. Its a lot easier to mix up islands than a big home run star.
Most people dont even know what the islands are called. My mom thouhght Cuba was Jamaica. Shes not dumb, she just never had a reason to learn where it was geographically.

[HurricaneHunter914]

How strange that a strengthening Cat-4 Hurricane is going south of the forecast points. I was think this would go more north. Well this must really suck for Mexico.

[cheezyWXguy]

Looking at the AVN IR loop of the floater, Dean is headed due west. Gonna miss the next NHC forecast point well south if this continues.

That could be good news for Jamaica. But not Yucatan or the Gulf...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

Yea, I think after they look at the current movement and the updated compute models, they will move the track South on either the next advisory or the one after.......Man, based on how strong this is, I feel really bad for Mexcio. I just hope and pray that Yucatan takes a good amount of steam out of it before it landfalls again. Some hurricanes have never recovered once they hit the Yucatan... One thing for sure is that if they move the track further south, they will also show it weaker in the gulf since it will be going over a wider area of Yucatan as opposed to just the tip, so that will be good news, let's hope!...

I think at this rate the next 3 days will likely be shifted south, but it may also give Dean a better shot at passing through the Yucatan Channel. If the high is stronger further south than the models showed, but still the same length east to west as the models show, it could allow for a sharper turn, if Im correct.