CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[gerrit]

Things are OK here in the mountains close to Humacao on the East coast of Puerto Rico.

Wind is there but not really strong - I guess 15 -20 Mph. We had some strong rain showers as well.

It looks like we're very, very lucky this time. A cat 4 hurricane straight over the island would have been a disaster.

Just wondering - why had this topic been 'un-stickied'? its' not over yet for Dean in the Caribbean, on the contrary. Jamaica, the Caymans are in Dean's path.

[ConvergenceZone]

This veer west has to pull up very soon or it's a trend left of guidance. Stronger ridge and straighter track west (GFS). So far it's dead west along 15 latitude line.

Agreed, I just hope that folks in Central America are prepared if it continues this path, it's bothersome, because they may not have taken precautions like others have. Hehe, too funny, they just now mentioned on the weather here that the ridge may be stronger afterall and they mentioned the movement and the GFS model perhaps panning out as well...

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Just because it is still moving west and will be a little south of the forecast point does not mean tomorrow Dean can start a wnw motion. Not saying it will or want it to happen, just that there is still plenty of time for things to change. Also it is getting clloser to the ull as time goes by so the chance might increase for him to catch the weakness that opnes up in the gulf.

[vaffie]

Still heading due west. I'm just amazed how rapidly this thing intensified.

the GFDL really underestimated the strength of the Ridge

On radar, it's wobbling north again. It may hit the point after all. Still too early to tell...

On satellite, I was noticing the same thing. It looks like there was some slight shear to the south that was causing the strongest convection to be south of the center--due to a strong high, but you can see now that it's beginning to relax a bit as stronger convection is building on the north side and that on the south is decreasing slightly. Chances are that it will then resume a more WNW track, but we'll see. If it does, I expect that tomorrow's midday runs will shift to the north again.

[Innotech]

Still heading due west. I'm just amazed how rapidly this thing intensified.

the GFDL really underestimated the strength of the Ridge

On radar, it's wobbling north again. It may hit the point after all. Still too early to tell...

It iwll continue to wobble. Its way too strong not to attempt some sort of northerly push. the question is just how strong is the ridge in comparison. Personally the straight line forecast still worries me. Its just too ideal and too obvious. Storms rarely do what theyre supposed to. ESPECIALLY if it hits Jamaica. It will not pass over it in the same direction I feel.

[jaxfladude]

Replay of Mitch 1998 when it hit Latin America so hard and kill so many people?

[DESTRUCTION5]

Dean looking more and more like a good practice run for the USA..

[weatherguru18]

How strange that a strengthening Cat-4 Hurricane is going south of the forecast points. I was think this would go more north. Well this must really suck for Mexico.

I was just going to say the same thing. If anything hurricanes always miss their forecasted points to the north. Infact tonight at the station we said that if it was going to veer, it would be to the north. oops.

Here's another thing (this is not directed at anybody...BUT) people on here (who have made a prediction) need to think it out before they fill the board full of fruitless predictions. If the models say it's going north on a particular run, then half the board is convinced that it's going north. If the runs shift south then all of a sudden they are saying "watch out Tampico." If this is you...will you please get a grip!

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Just because it is still moving west and will be a little south of the forecast point does not mean tomorrow Dean can start a wnw motion. Not saying it will or want it to happen, just that there is still plenty of time for things to change. Also it is getting clloser to the ull as time goes by so the chance might increase for him to catch the weakness that opnes up in the gulf.

[Air Force Met]

I'll will give the FOX guy a pass....as a TV met, I can tell you that you have 25 different things going on at one time, people talking through your ear piece, you might have looked at something right before going on. He could've just looked at a model run and was planning on talking about the southernmost run through Guatemala. Last night I was talking about S. Texas and called it New Mexico. It happens. And I didn't even realize I said it until my director told me after I said it.

I've been doing stand-up briefs in front of generals for years...and I still have stuff fly out of my mouth that I wonder where it came from. The last time I preached on the book of Judges...I preached on Othneil and Shamgar (who killed 600 philistines with an OX goad). For 1/2 of a sermon I called Othneil-OXneil...and never knew I did it until I listened to the tape.

It happens. I can only hope the congregation was thinking I was pronouncing it like a Hebrew.

[KBBOCA]

Latest 5 day forecast is out. (11 p.m. advisory)
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... ml#a_topad

Don't see much change, except in intensity:

Hitting Jamaica dead on as Cat 5. Lord have mercy.
And grazing Yucatan and then on to Mex / Tx border as a Cat 3.

[mf_dolphin]

We're just getting ready for the next threatened areas.

[Ptarmigan]

I am not surprised that Dean is a Category 4 hurricane. I would not be surprised if Dean becomes a Category 5 hurricane soon. Nothing really surprises me about hurricanes. In fact this is the first above Category 3 hurricane since Wilma in 2005.

[vacanechaser]

As I said before, I just dont see this storm making much of a turn to the NW or NNW for that matter. It has been traveling on almost the exact same path since formation, and its currently going due west. This sucker might pop out in the Pacific.

thats because it has had a strong deep layer ridge to its north pushing it along... soo, it could start to feel some pull from the ull near florida... the ridge will be weaker allowing for at least a slight northward bend... i will say this, most times, the nhc errors to the left.. usually the hurricane makes landfall to the right of the forecast track, sometimes with a decent error...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricnane Intercept Research Team

That would be the case almost always on the East coast. Anytime the models show a storm headed towards say Charleston or Myrtle Beach you can bet it ends up somewhere near Wilmington or Morehead City.

well, dennis in 2005 error to far west... charley error to far north... katrina, was forcast over no or just west of them, she came in east of the city... just a few recent gulf storms... not just east coast



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[srainhoutx]

I'll will give the FOX guy a pass....as a TV met, I can tell you that you have 25 different things going on at one time, people talking through your ear piece, you might have looked at something right before going on. He could've just looked at a model run and was planning on talking about the southernmost run through Guatemala. Last night I was talking about S. Texas and called it New Mexico. It happens. And I didn't even realize I said it until my director told me after I said it.

Amen

I've been doing stand-up briefs in front of generals for years...and I still have stuff fly out of my mouth that I wonder where it came from. The last time I preached on the book of Judges...I preached on Othneil and Shamgar (who killed 600 philistines with an OX goad). For 1/2 of a sermon I called Othneil-OXneil...and never knew I did it until I listened to the tape.

It happens. I can only hope the congregation was thinking I was pronouncing it like a Hebrew.

Amen

[fasterdisaster]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 180247
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 PM AST FRI AUG 17 2007

...CATEGORY FOUR DEAN INTENSIFYING OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...

AT 11 PM AST...A HURRICANE WARNING IS ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI...FROM THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO
PORT-AU-PRINCE...AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ISSUED FROM
PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE NORTHERN HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.

AT 11 PM AST...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR GUADELOUPE AND ITS
DEPENDENCIES HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED...AND ALL TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST
KITTS...BARBUDA...AND ANGUILLA.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS....U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. THESE WARNINGS
WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED ON SATURDAY MORNING.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO BARAHONA.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CUBA...FROM THE
PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
WESTERN CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.9 WEST OR ABOUT 755 MILES...
1210 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 240 MILES...
390 KM...SOUTH OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING WELL SOUTH
OF PUERTO RICO TONIGHT AND SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC EARLY
SATURDAY.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS 937
MB...27.67 INCHES.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM
DEAN OVER PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...14.9 N...65.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[cycloneye]

AT 11 PM AST...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR GUADELOUPE AND ITS
DEPENDENCIES HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED...AND ALL TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST
KITTS...BARBUDA...AND ANGUILLA.


The Tropical Storm Warning was discontinued for many islands,See which are those above.

The islands in the NE Caribbean dodged a big bullet.Here in San Juan,no rain and winds haved been in the range of 15-25 mph,but nothing bad has occured in the whole islands apart from some trees that went down this afternoon when a feederband moved thru the SE coast.

[cpdaman]

guys i understand the mania on this board right now, but everyone is over analyzing every model run.

i have been watching the weather channel during many many tropical updates today and the message i got was there is a lot of uncertainty regarding the track. they keep mentioning the ULL just east of florida and how it is not clear how it will play out and effect the storm.

paul goodlow even mentioned once the term south florida (relax everyone) and how even people here need to keep their eyes on it. (now if lyons ever said something like that i may listen closer) but it just goes to show you the uncertainty of the models forecasting that feature correctly and wether even if they forecasted it's movement correct how close dean would need to be to feel it's effects.

And a question. What would likely be the first effects (visually) on dean if he were starting to "feel" the ULL? A slowdown and then change in direction? high cirrus to the west of the storm streaming more northword? just trying to tap into the knowledge. stay safe and aware

[artist]

aren't those islands that will be threatened? Doesn't seem right to drop it yet.

[RattleMan]

:uarrow:
Replay of Mitch 1998 when it hit Latin America so hard and kill so many people?

Remember: Mitch's strength was not what killed so many, it was the intense rainfall it dumped as a tropical depression/low pressure area.