CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[yzerfan]

In terms of newscaster misstatements, I think I heard about three separate people on the air today talk about Dean's impact on the island of 'Dominique'

[Ptarmigan]

Dean is quite a large storm now with hurricane force winds extending up to 60 miles and TS winds of 205 miles. It's sort of like Hurricane Dennis.

[pojo]

the governer let all non-essential personnel off today at noon on St. Croix.... St. John and St. Thomas at 3pm. There is a curfew in place on St. Croix.

[wlfpack81]

I'm really becoming increasing concerned for Jamaica. Obviously if Dean passes just south of the island then Kingston Bay will get inundated with storm surge. However, looking at elevation info (assuming Google Earth is somewhat accurate) it does increase quickly and as you get to central and northern parts of Kingston (pop. around 500,000) are around 200 to 400 feet. As we know with hurricanes in the lower levels the higher you go up the stronger the winds become so I can see a bad situation where the eyes goes over Kingston or just south with 10m winds of 150-160 mph and then you tack on another 5-10 or so for those higher elevations. Could be a very bad situation.

Now while Kingston is surrounded by mountains (around 1500-3000 ft according to Google Earth) I wonder if they'll play havoc with some of those lower level winds. I'm sure most of you have heard of mountains waves that occur when winds blow over mountain ranges. Good example is Denver which is notorious for these waves and hence why flying into that airport is so bumpy due to the shear they can create. Now with those mountains in Jamaica only being a few thousand feet high when compared to the Denver mountain range I'm not sure how much of a wave/shear effect can be produce by the expected easterly winds, assuming Dean goes over them or just to the south. However, if decent wave action can be produce by those mountains then I can see situations where in addition to slightly increased winds due to the 200-400 ft elevations in some parts of the city you'd also see areas of even stronger winds due to these horizontal mountain waves dragging down stronger winds aloft thanks to the shear. Again not totally sure if that'd be an issue in this case but just some thoughts I had in head at this late hour.

[Derek Ortt]

the fact that the mdoels 5 days out are not predicting Texas is trouble


Have we all forgot about where the models were 4 days ago... not one of them had Dean where it currently is

[vacanechaser]

WTNT34 KNHC 180247
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 PM AST FRI AUG 17 2007

...CATEGORY FOUR DEAN INTENSIFYING OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...

AT 11 PM AST...A HURRICANE WARNING IS ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI...FROM THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER TO
PORT-AU-PRINCE...AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ISSUED FROM
PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE NORTHERN HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.

AT 11 PM AST...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR GUADELOUPE AND ITS
DEPENDENCIES HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED...AND ALL TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST
KITTS...BARBUDA...AND ANGUILLA.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE HAITI-DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS....U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. THESE WARNINGS
WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED ON SATURDAY MORNING.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO BARAHONA.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CUBA...FROM THE
PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
WESTERN CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.9 WEST OR ABOUT 755 MILES...
1210 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 240 MILES...
390 KM...SOUTH OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING WELL SOUTH
OF PUERTO RICO TONIGHT AND SOUTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC EARLY
SATURDAY.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS 937
MB...27.67 INCHES.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED FROM
DEAN OVER PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...14.9 N...65.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[Innotech]

How strange that a strengthening Cat-4 Hurricane is going south of the forecast points. I was think this would go more north. Well this must really suck for Mexico.

I was just going to say the same thing. If anything hurricanes always miss their forecasted points to the north. Infact tonight at the station we said that if it was going to veer, it would be to the north. oops.

Here's another thing (this is not directed at anybody...BUT) people on here (who have made a prediction) need to think it out before they fill the board full of fruitless predictions. If the models say it's going north on a particular run, then half the board is convinced that it's going north. If the runs shift south then all of a sudden they are saying "watch out Tampico." If this is you...will you please get a grip!

I still think its destined for the LA/TX border like rita. Its a bad feeling and something just doesnt feel right to me. The way they keep it over the yucatan seems awfully faithful to that high pressure staying put. If it doesnt there could be osme major problems.

[Sanibel]

TS 205 miles radius probably gradient from strong ridge.

[vaffie]

the fact that the mdoels 5 days out are not predicting Texas is trouble

Could you elaborate, Derek?

[cheezyWXguy]

Latest 5 day forecast is out. (11 p.m. advisory)
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... ml#a_topad

Don't see much change, except in intensity:

Hitting Jamaica dead on as Cat 5. Lord have mercy.
And grazing Yucatan and then on to Mex / Tx border as a Cat 3.

I think their forecast after the Yucatan is too conservative...I would have gone with a cat4 at 2nd landfall at least...

[TampaFl]

11:00pm position:

[caneman]

Anyone else notice that the storm has slowed to 18 mph?

[Air Force Met]

Anyone remember that internet radio link we listened from Kingston during Ivan in 2004? Anyone have that link?

[HouTXmetro]

the fact that the mdoels 5 days out are not predicting Texas is trouble


Have we all forgot about where the models were 4 days ago... not one of them had Dean where it currently is

Stop it Derick, we here in TX are resting easier tonight.....

[DESTRUCTION5]

Anyone else notice that the storm has slowed to 18 mph?

Yes figured this would happen..i think it may go to 12mph

[jacindc]

Is anyone going to be around to post the GFS as it comes out at 11:30?

(can't *believe* how quiet it is in here for a Cat 4-probably-going-to-a-Cat-5)

[TampaFl]

Dean's eye now visible on Netherland Antilles radar.

http://www.weather.an/product_images/high/ppi.html

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Derek, what exactly do you mean? I can not remember where they had Dean progged to be at the beginning of this week. Could you please emphasize a little more?

[CrazyC83]

788
URNT15 KNHC 180252
AF302 0504A DEAN HDOB 30 20070818
024030 1402N 06521W 6968 03128 0043 +077 +077 212038 039 039 004 03
024100 1403N 06523W 6969 03126 0041 +077 +077 206038 039 999 999 03
024130 1405N 06523W 6969 03120 0031 +082 +082 209039 041 040 005 03
024200 1407N 06523W 6967 03126 0021 +089 +077 213041 041 043 000 00
024230 1409N 06523W 6967 03122 0020 +089 +077 215043 045 042 000 00
024300 1411N 06523W 6967 03117 0013 +090 +083 217047 047 043 000 00
024330 1413N 06523W 6964 03118 0014 +088 +075 217046 046 041 001 03
024400 1415N 06524W 6968 03111 0012 +086 +074 218046 047 042 000 00
024430 1417N 06524W 6967 03109 0011 +085 +077 216048 048 043 001 03
024500 1418N 06526W 6969 03102 0002 +087 +077 214047 047 043 001 03
024530 1419N 06527W 6965 03103 0000 +085 +079 212048 048 044 000 00
024600 1421N 06528W 6967 03097 9998 +085 +081 219047 048 043 000 00
024630 1422N 06530W 6967 03092 9988 +089 +076 219047 048 043 000 00
024700 1423N 06531W 6963 03096 9993 +080 +080 217045 046 043 001 00
024730 1424N 06532W 6967 03085 9981 +085 +078 217046 047 043 000 00
024800 1426N 06533W 6965 03082 9972 +089 +078 216048 049 044 001 00
024830 1427N 06535W 6968 03076 9968 +089 +073 219051 051 045 000 00
024900 1428N 06536W 6967 03069 9963 +087 +080 221053 054 046 000 00
024930 1429N 06537W 6967 03064 9955 +088 +078 221055 056 047 000 00
025000 1431N 06539W 6965 03059 9955 +081 +081 222057 058 048 004 00
$$

[TampaFl]

Anyone remember that internet radio link we listened from Kingston during Ivan in 2004? Anyone have that link?

Here you go:


http://www.go-jamaica.com/power/