CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[mgpetre]

I'm hoping for a shield, and I realize now that if this thing is sitting just off the Yuca on Monday, no one will have their guard down. Folks are already getting the picture. This thing is a Cat 4 long before anything else that has ever threatened them. Word is getting around that some models predicted 200 mph winds. People understand that if it pans out it isn't to be taken lightly. The terrible thing about all of these events is that there will be somewhere that sees the "cried wolf" side of things...

[DESTRUCTION5]

I can't accurately read these things but it appears the GFS is still too weak and slow so far. Is that correct?

Yes, it is way too weak. In 24 hours it is showing something similar to a TS. There is just no way this is going to go from a Strong Cat. 4 down to a TS in that timeframe. As for speed it may be slightly too slow, but generally it is in line with the NHC track speed.

Never been right !!! strength wise

[Extremeweatherguy]

36 hrs.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_036l.gif

500mb.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_036l.gif

Still too weak, but it is also further north. It might even go north of Jamaica in this run. We shall see..

[CrazyC83]

680
URNT15 KNHC 180330
AF302 0504A DEAN HDOB 34 20070818
032030 1537N 06647W 6965 03134 0028 +091 +081 059058 058 053 003 00
032100 1539N 06648W 6967 03136 0025 +095 +078 059057 058 053 001 00
032130 1540N 06649W 6967 03138 0026 +095 +077 060057 058 052 002 00
032200 1541N 06650W 6960 03146 0037 +091 +084 061058 060 999 999 03
032230 1543N 06651W 6968 03139 0037 +091 +086 060059 060 051 001 03
032300 1544N 06653W 6967 03144 0043 +090 +085 060058 058 051 002 00
032330 1545N 06654W 6967 03145 0045 +090 +087 059058 059 050 002 00
032400 1546N 06655W 6964 03150 0053 +084 +084 059060 061 049 001 00
032430 1548N 06656W 6967 03148 0061 +080 +080 060057 058 050 000 00
032500 1549N 06657W 6967 03152 0061 +080 +080 062057 058 048 000 00
032530 1551N 06659W 6969 03150 0052 +088 +081 060053 054 048 000 00
032600 1552N 06700W 6967 03151 0057 +086 +081 057055 056 048 000 00
032630 1553N 06701W 6966 03156 0058 +089 +080 058053 054 049 000 00
032700 1554N 06702W 6970 03155 0057 +090 +077 057055 055 049 000 00
032730 1556N 06703W 6967 03155 0054 +093 +071 057053 055 049 000 00
032800 1557N 06704W 6968 03158 0054 +094 +068 058051 052 050 000 00
032830 1558N 06705W 6967 03159 0056 +095 +057 054051 051 049 000 00
032900 1600N 06706W 6965 03166 0060 +092 +053 053052 053 050 000 00
032930 1601N 06708W 6967 03162 0057 +097 +052 050054 054 050 000 00
033000 1602N 06709W 6965 03165 0060 +093 +058 052055 056 045 000 00
$$

[whereverwx]

For all of you who are curious or probably forgot, this is the current MJO. I don't know how accurate it is, but the Caribbean is in the dry phase, which further disproves that the MJO affects tropical cyclones.

[jhamps10]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

Man oh man what a beauty of a storm.

looks like some new red spots starting to form around the center?

[Innotech]

some of my friends are freaking here in Louisiana but Ive told them that its not a likely even here. but Im definitely informing them of all the possibilities this storm can go. Honestly I wouldnt call the all clear for houston and east until this storm is heading out of the yucatan towards Mexico. i STILL dont think this will be apurely Mexico even and Ive seen way too many erratic paths even in the face of "certainty" to accept that this will just pass relatively uneventfully into Mexicos east coast. Land interaction is very much a factor and the ridge is still influenced by that ULL. Theres just way too much in play to say this wont affect upper Texas. And this storm has still barely passed Puerto Rico!

[tolakram]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rb.html

Dean is still running due west, tropical points just updated. If it's going to hit Jamaica, and I hope it's not, it will need to make a right turn very soon, otherwise the track they've been sticking to is just plain wrong.

[jhamps10]

WAY too weak, but the track does appear a lot more sane compaired to 18z.

no way this goes from Cat 4 to a TD like that.

[Extremeweatherguy]

48 hrs.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_048l.gif

500mb.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_048l.gif

It crosses just on the north side of Jamaica on this run. Further north than the 18z for sure.

[vacanechaser]

24 hrs.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_024l.gif

500mb.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_024l.gif

Once again..way too weak at 24 hrs!

24 hours!!!!! shoot... to weak on the intial 1004mb????? that cant be right..





Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[fasterdisaster]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rb.html

Dean is still running due west, tropical points just updated. If it's going to hit Jamaica, and I hope it's not, it will need to make a right turn very soon, otherwise the track they've been sticking to is just plain wrong.

Are you sure, as it appears to me, and I could be wrong, that the last few frames show a WNW track resuming?

[miamicanes177]

more northward movement at 48 hours than the 18Z. The 18Z was turning it straight west at this point.

[Extremeweatherguy]

yeah, the initial 1004mb is weird too. You would think this would at least be initialized somewhat closer to the current 961mb. lol. Talk about being way off!

[KBBOCA]

Can the typical shelter in Jamaica and Mexico even stand up to cat 5 winds? Over 160 mph winds, especially for the yucatan, seems a lot - even for schools etc which are typically used as shelters.

Good question... I don't think anyone realizes (outside of the types that watch this board or TWC religiously) how historic this storm may be. I really wish I hadn't moved to the coast this year. I pray for Jamaica, it's such a really laid back great country.

I recall the shelters in the Yucatan held up AMAZINGLY well in Rita or Wilma (I forget which) which absolutely pummeled Cozumel and Cancun for hours and hours in 2005.

I'm worried about Jamaica. I just checked out the Jamaica Observer (newspaper) and it doesn't even begin to hint at the magnitude of what they could be facing. Talks vaguely about possible effects of the storm. Oh boy. I hope there are other/better news sources!!!

http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/news/htm ... _NEARS.asp

[PTPatrick]

Couple Observations so far...the more nortern track would cause some land interaction with DR. History shows that some storms passing south of DR get disrupted...and that track acctually clips the corner. In other words a weaker storm is reasonable, albeit nowhere NEAR a TD.

Also, if the storm is initialized too weak...and I know this is only moderately based in fact and somewhat a wives tale...a stronger storm would tend more poleward. So if that continues I think GFDL will stay north or maybe moved up some toward Houston.

[100feettstormsurge]

As far as the GFDL being crazy intensity-wise, we'll just have to wait and see, especially with the higher SST's and TCHP in the western caribbean.

[canetracker]

Can anyone explain why is it that it is initialized with the wrong data in regard to pressure? This seems to happen a lot.

[CronkPSU]

24 hrs.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_024l.gif

500mb.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_024l.gif

Once again..way too weak at 24 hrs!

24 hours!!!!! shoot... to weak on the intial 1004mb????? that cant be right..





Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

i wish i had that picard gif someone used wednesday with his head in his hands knowing that someone is an idiot look about him

[N2FSU]

Great WV loop here: http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+12

It sure looks like Dean is closing the gap on the ULL off of Florida. Notice the south to north flow starting around the eastern tip of Cuba.