CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[jacindc]

I thought some mets have posted in the past day or so that the GFS's intensity numbers should pretty much be ignored.

[jhamps10]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rb.html

Dean is still running due west, tropical points just updated. If it's going to hit Jamaica, and I hope it's not, it will need to make a right turn very soon, otherwise the track they've been sticking to is just plain wrong.

Are you sure, as it appears to me, and I could be wrong, that the last few frames show a WNW track resuming?

yeah in the last 4 frames I noticed a WNW jog too.

[tolakram]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rb.html

Dean is still running due west, tropical points just updated. If it's going to hit Jamaica, and I hope it's not, it will need to make a right turn very soon, otherwise the track they've been sticking to is just plain wrong.

Are you sure, as it appears to me, and I could be wrong, that the last few frames show a WNW track resuming?

I don't see it, but maybe I'm not loading the last few frames.

[Extremeweatherguy]

54 hrs.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_054l.gif

500mb.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_054l.gif

It might be far enough north in this run to catch that weakness. hmm. that would be interesting if it happened.

[jasons2k]

A few things before I crash for the night:

I'm plotting Dean with a marker & the grid set on GR3. He has been wobbling, went due west for the longest time, but does appear to be headed north of due west again, essentially parallel to the forecast track. Usually wobbles correct themselves in the long haul and I expect the same here with Dean.

Secondly, we've got a long track still ahead of us. I know tensions can run high with a Cat. 5 forecasted in the GOM but guys, let's not get upset at each other. This one is a baddie and someone's gonna take it on the chin. Jamaica is up first and we're talking about casualties ahead from Dean. All the bickering over minute details really doesn't help in the long run. The models will still swing back and forth and like many pro mets have stated, we won't know much until Sunday, at least. Have patience. A lot can and will change before then. Derek is right, it likely won't hit the 5-day mark. And unfortunately, usually when a track is adjusted, it has to be adjusted to the right. Keep that in mind.

Lastly, the board has become excessively chatty and I'm afaid it's only going to get worse. I wish somehow the madness would stop. We've had 194 pages now (heck it'll be funny if it's 195/196 when I click "Submit") because people are still posting one-liners and repeating images within posts, which isn't necessary; you can edit the image link from the reply to save real estate on the page. People, please adhere to the requests of the Mods. As a person who could potentially be in the path of Dean, I'm asking you guys to refrain from posting every thought that crosses your mind or responding to every question. If someone asks a question, PM them. We don't need 20 responses to the same question, etc. We need this board for important information, especially now as we get closer to a potential dangerous and deadly landfall of a major hurricane.

Some of you have been posting and average of 10-20+ posts an hour. That's excessive; it really is. Unless you are a pro met, or have God's infinite wisdom, you truly can't add THAT much to the discussion by posting that much. And unfortunately the worst offenders tend to post the least meaningful information. Has anyone noticed when a pro-met writes a summary for the first time in a few hours how much praise it gets? That's because it's a well thought-out, quality post, with all the pertinent information. There's no need to add to it every 5 minutes, all day long.

So, again, as someone who will be trying to find important information on the board in the coming days, please, PLEASE think before you post. Thank you and goodnight!

[PTPatrick]

Something about GFS never being able to see very low pressure. Its is the nature of the model...not made to do it. If memory serves, Katrina and Ivan also looked like cat 1 or TS on the GFS surface maps...it actually isnt THAT much of a big deal I think.

EDIT...I cant believe GFS just took it north of Jamaica...and back to the ULL seems stronger and slower...possibly the reason for the Northward shift? And I think NHC may have seen that coming in the GFS tonight, hence their little comment about models shifting.

[njweather]

The storm tracks for Gilbert and Allen seem awfully similar to what the models are predicting for Dean.

So, should it pan out like those two, what kind of weather will be see in the Houston area (coastal central TX)?

Also, what are the differences that makes Dean unique (from those two)?

Thanks!

[CronkPSU]

I thought some mets have posted in the past day or so that the GFS's intensity numbers should pretty much be ignored.

how can intensity be ignored, it has an influence on the cyclone

[vaffie]

Can anyone explain why is it that it is initialized with the wrong data in regard to pressure? This seems to happen a lot.

The GFS doesn't have as fine a resolution as some of the other models so it can't resolve pressures that low that are so focused in such a small area. It matters that it can't, but it still understands synoptics pretty well and so it's still able to predict track pretty well.

[StormWarning1]

Can anyone explain why is it that it is initialized with the wrong data in regard to pressure? This seems to happen a lot.

The GFS does not show the lowest pressure. That area is to small to fit on the map.

[HouTXmetro]

yeah, the initial 1004mb is weird too. You would think this would at least be initialized somewhat closer to the current 961mb. lol. Talk about being way off!

A met would have to break it down, But I also heard strong systems can pump a ridge of High pressure keeping the High Strong.

[artist]

on another thread they said the gfs can't handle a low pressure accurately or something like that

[CrazyC83]

085
URNT15 KNHC 180350
AF302 0504A DEAN HDOB 36 20070818
034030 1545N 06722W 6966 03157 0052 +095 +056 045052 052 047 000 00
034100 1543N 06722W 6967 03154 0054 +094 +057 044053 053 048 000 00
034130 1541N 06723W 6965 03155 0056 +091 +058 042053 053 046 002 00
034200 1539N 06723W 6967 03153 0054 +090 +061 040053 053 047 002 00
034230 1537N 06723W 6967 03154 0058 +087 +065 040056 057 050 003 00
034300 1535N 06724W 6968 03151 0058 +086 +069 039055 056 050 004 00
034330 1533N 06724W 6966 03152 0056 +085 +071 038053 054 044 000 00
034400 1531N 06724W 6968 03151 0059 +084 +070 037051 053 046 001 00
034430 1529N 06725W 6966 03151 0062 +080 +073 036053 054 048 000 00
034500 1527N 06725W 6967 03150 0059 +080 +074 035054 054 045 000 00
034530 1525N 06725W 6967 03147 0059 +080 +077 035055 055 049 000 00
034600 1523N 06726W 6965 03151 0059 +080 +079 035055 056 051 001 00
034630 1521N 06726W 6967 03150 0059 +080 +074 033056 056 050 000 00
034700 1521N 06726W 6967 03150 0053 +085 +074 030055 056 048 001 03
034730 1516N 06727W 6967 03150 0055 +084 +076 026052 053 047 001 00
034800 1516N 06727W 6967 03150 0053 +087 +075 024049 051 048 000 03
034830 1513N 06728W 6964 03160 0060 +085 +072 026047 048 999 999 03
034900 1513N 06730W 6968 03151 0059 +086 +070 030044 044 999 999 03
034930 1514N 06730W 6967 03151 0058 +086 +069 030043 044 044 000 03
035000 1516N 06730W 6968 03150 0058 +086 +070 032044 046 047 000 00
$$

[Extremeweatherguy]

60 hrs.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_060l.gif

500mb.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_060l.gif

Still much further north than the 18z.

[tolakram]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rb.html

Dean is still running due west, tropical points just updated. If it's going to hit Jamaica, and I hope it's not, it will need to make a right turn very soon, otherwise the track they've been sticking to is just plain wrong.

Are you sure, as it appears to me, and I could be wrong, that the last few frames show a WNW track resuming?

yeah in the last 4 frames I noticed a WNW jog too.

Did you turn on the lat/long line to see this? They eye is still heading west.

[Air Force Met]

I'm doing a side by side by side. The 00z run is definitely further north. I also notice that in 48 hours Erin is still over the TX/OK border. We'll see how this plays out with the ridge and the low.

By 60 hrs it's still north of 18z.

[canetracker]

Can anyone explain why is it that it is initialized with the wrong data in regard to pressure? This seems to happen a lot.

The GFS doesn't have as fine a resolution as some of the other models so it can't resolve pressures that low that are so focused in such a small area. It matters that it can't, but it still understands synoptics pretty well and so it's still able to predict track pretty well.

Thanks Vaffie. One more question, so in turn the GFDL that can resolve pressures uses this data to base its outcome on?

[Extremeweatherguy]

66 hrs.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_066l.gif

500mb.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_066l.gif

[PTPatrick]

Was ERin in the same spot on the 18z 54 hour?

[Extremeweatherguy]

72 hrs.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_072l.gif

500mb.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_072l.gif

Notice: the ULL is still near the TX coast.