CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[vaffie]

At 54 hours look towards the Bay of Campeche and the western Gulf of Mexico. Compared to the 12Z model, it appears that the upper low is further south and a small 588 circle appears in the BOC too unlike the 12z model--this will likely have a big impact on overall direction of Dean--if the trend continues, it will hit south Texas this run.

Compare:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_054l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_066l.gif

[Air Force Met]

I also note the upper low is a lot further south. At 66 hrs there is a weakness over N TX/OK where Erin used to be.

[jhamps10]

Are you sure, as it appears to me, and I could be wrong, that the last few frames show a WNW track resuming?

yeah in the last 4 frames I noticed a WNW jog too.

Did you turn on the lat/long line to see this? They eye is still heading west.

yes, it is not much above due west, but a VERY little bit north of due west. It's towards the very end, I had to slow the loop way down to double check it, and My eyes could be playing tricks on me I won't lie bout that, but in my eyes, it was a small, and VERY small at that change in movement.

[mgpetre]

The storm tracks for Gilbert and Allen seem awfully similar to what the models are predicting for Dean.

So, should it pan out like those two, what kind of weather will be see in the Houston area (coastal central TX)?

Also, what are the differences that makes Dean unique (from those two)?

Thanks!

I think this is very similar to Allen in many ways as far as weather patterns before formation and such, but still this is it's own storm and Erin did some damage to that southerly track ... that's my opinion for now.

[MWatkins]

I'm doing a side by side by side. The 00z run is definitely further north. I also notice that in 48 hours Erin is still over the TX/OK border. We'll see how this plays out with the ridge and the low.

By 60 hrs it's still north of 18z.

Yes...and north of the 12Z as well. Looks like the Bahamas upper low is a little further south and east. By t+72 it's still not in to Texas yet:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_072m.gif

The 12Z GFS had it at the TX/LA border

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_084m.gif

Not sure what this will mean at the end of the run...but I have a feeling the GFDL is going to have a field day with the ULL in that position.

MW

[artist]

what would that cause to happen air force met? TIA

[Extremeweatherguy]

78 hrs.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_078l.gif

landfall near Cancun/Cozumel.

500mb.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_078l.gif

[vaffie]

If the operational GFS is on to something, all the models will trend north.

[Air Force Met]

I'm doing a side by side by side. The 00z run is definitely further north. I also notice that in 48 hours Erin is still over the TX/OK border. We'll see how this plays out with the ridge and the low.

By 60 hrs it's still north of 18z.

Yes...and north of the 12Z as well. Looks like the Bahamas upper low is a little further south and east. By t+72 it's still not in to Texas yet:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_072m.gif

The 12Z GFS had it at the TX/LA border

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_084m.gif

Not sure what this will mean at the end of the run...but I have a feeling the GFDL is going to have a field day with the ULL in that position.

MW

The upper low is the full back in this blocking pattern.

[mgpetre]

54 hrs.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_054l.gif

500mb.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_054l.gif

It might be far enough north in this run to catch that weakness. hmm. that would be interesting if it happened.

If this became a Florida storm the entire weather world would have to eat crow and we would all be very sad for giving Cuba and Florida almost no lead time.

[Air Force Met]

And it's clearing the path for the star running back...

[Extremeweatherguy]

54 hrs.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_054l.gif

500mb.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_054l.gif

It might be far enough north in this run to catch that weakness. hmm. that would be interesting if it happened.

If this became a Florida storm the entire weather world would have to eat crow and we would all be very sad for giving Cuba and Florida almost no lead time.

lol. I don't think this will be a Florida storm, but with the ULL in that position, Texas and Louisiana would be much more vulnerable.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Here is missing 35:

URNT15 KNHC 180340
AF302 0504A DEAN HDOB 35 20070818
033030 1603N 06710W 6967 03164 0065 +090 +063 054056 057 044 000 00
033100 1605N 06711W 6967 03164 0067 +090 +059 055057 057 045 000 00
033130 1606N 06712W 6965 03165 0071 +088 +054 054057 058 044 000 00
033200 1607N 06713W 6967 03165 0079 +081 +061 054057 058 045 000 00
033230 1608N 06714W 6968 03165 0081 +082 +064 056054 055 044 000 00
033300 1610N 06715W 6967 03167 0082 +081 +067 058055 055 048 000 00
033330 1611N 06717W 6968 03174 0086 +084 +065 058053 054 043 000 03
033400 1611N 06719W 6968 03173 0087 +084 +062 058054 054 999 999 03
033430 1609N 06719W 6967 03166 0081 +085 +063 056053 053 999 999 03
033500 1607N 06719W 6966 03167 0075 +083 +064 054053 054 045 000 00
033530 1605N 06719W 6967 03163 0077 +082 +065 052054 054 044 000 00
033600 1603N 06719W 6967 03163 0072 +085 +064 051056 056 043 000 00
033630 1601N 06720W 6967 03162 0070 +087 +063 051058 058 045 000 00
033700 1559N 06720W 6968 03159 0069 +087 +065 052059 059 047 000 00
033730 1557N 06720W 6965 03162 0063 +090 +062 051057 057 045 000 00
033800 1555N 06720W 6967 03159 0061 +090 +060 049055 056 043 000 00
033830 1553N 06721W 6967 03162 0062 +090 +061 048055 056 046 000 00
033900 1551N 06721W 6967 03159 0060 +092 +059 048053 053 046 000 00
033930 1549N 06721W 6967 03156 0056 +094 +058 046052 052 044 000 00
034000 1547N 06722W 6967 03158 0053 +095 +056 045050 051 046 000 00

[miamicanes177]

If the GFDL ends up being right...it will be like Buster Douglas knocking out Mike Tyson. The huge underdog (but very capable) shocks the world and delivers a knockout forecast when everyone bet against it!

[Extremeweatherguy]

90 hrs.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_090l.gif

500mb.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_090l.gif

[fasterdisaster]

Did you turn on the lat/long line to see this? They eye is still heading west.

yes, it is not much above due west, but a VERY little bit north of due west. It's towards the very end, I had to slow the loop way down to double check it, and My eyes could be playing tricks on me I won't lie bout that, but in my eyes, it was a small, and VERY small at that change in movement.

Same as what I saw, looked to go north by just about .1 degrees lat near the end, admittedly not WNW maybe, but does look to me at least just north of due west.

[PTPatrick]

and now the high is pushing him back south again...same track...just shifted north bit...I bet GFS still nose dive Dean into the southern BOC


EDIT: Isnt that sort of what happened to Isidore or something? High buiilt in and just left it sitting over the Yuc for a couple days and then it short north to NOLA?

[artist]

very possibly just a wobble guys

[la wave]

There continues to be a dry air core to the northwest of Dean. This will prevent Dean from moving poleward at this time. The core and Dean are moving to the west in tandem. Lately, I've noticed some slight dry air intrusion into the system from the north and northwest. Will this eventually erode the core? I've never seen this before. I have been using the LSU ESL website and sat. loops for years to predict tc tracks. The only two that that I missed were Katrina and Rita. Please refer to the LSU ESL website. Hit research, then go to Walker,2000, abstract to understand what I'm talking about. Thank you.

[Sanibel]

I've seen these things do crazy things. Who knows what that trough remnant under the cut-off ULL will do when Dean encounters it. This unexpected west track could suddenly go 290*. Right now it looks like a straight west conveyor belt of ridge guidance. This is what the models are reading. But the models have missed bumps before.