CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[aguaviva]

No rain in Old San Juan, but the surf is getting rougher as the wind increases. At this time on a Friday night San Juan would be swamped with people, not tonight.

[MWatkins]

And it's clearing the path for the star running back...

Yep...at t+90...still a closed 588DM hole sitting in SE TX instead of up near Oklahoma and filled as per the 12Z run.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_090m.gif

MW

[Stormcenter]

and now the high is pushing him back south again...same track...just shifted north bit...I bet GFS still nose dive Dean into the southern BOC


EDIT: Isnt that sort of what happened to Isidore or something? High buiilt in and just left it sitting over the Yuc for a couple days and then it short north to NOLA?

Yes I think you are correct.

[Air Force Met]

There is a shift in the steering flow at 300mb over Florida at 72 hours. Where winds were easterly...they are now ESE. This will allow Dean to pursue a more WNW course that he naturally wants to pursue.

At 90 hours...Dean is at 21N compared to 18N at 18Z. That is a 180 mile jump to the north. The upper low is also much further SW.

[Extremeweatherguy]

At least in the next 3/4 days, the GFS is now much further north. Even if it does go back down to Mexico in this run, I do have to say that this does not look good for the TX coast. If the ULL is truly in the position the GFS puts it on the current run, then we could have issues.

[Stormcenter]

At least in the next 3/4 days, the GFS is now much further north. Even if it does go back down to Mexico in this run, I do have to say that this does not look good for the TX coast. If the ULL is truly in the position the GFS puts it on the current run, then we could have issues.

What part of the Texas coast?

[Extremeweatherguy]

102 hrs.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_102l.gif

500mb.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_102l.gif

[CrazyC83]

011
URNT15 KNHC 180400
AF302 0504A DEAN HDOB 37 20070818
035030 1517N 06730W 6967 03153 0057 +085 +072 034046 046 048 000 00
035100 1518N 06730W 6967 03151 0057 +088 +067 035044 045 051 000 00
035130 1520N 06730W 6968 03148 0060 +082 +074 037047 048 050 000 00
035200 1521N 06729W 6966 03150 0061 +080 +073 038050 051 046 003 00
035230 1522N 06729W 6965 03149 0061 +080 +072 037052 052 045 000 00
035300 1524N 06729W 6967 03149 0057 +085 +070 038051 052 047 000 00
035330 1525N 06729W 6966 03155 0058 +083 +075 037053 054 048 002 00
035400 1526N 06728W 6967 03151 0057 +085 +074 039051 053 999 999 03
035430 1526N 06727W 6964 03158 0064 +084 +076 038048 048 999 999 03
035500 1524N 06727W 6967 03146 0059 +080 +080 038051 052 048 000 03
035530 1522N 06727W 6967 03148 0057 +080 +080 036052 053 048 000 00
035600 1520N 06728W 6966 03146 0058 +080 +080 036055 055 047 000 00
035630 1518N 06728W 6970 03142 0061 +080 +080 035054 054 048 000 00
035700 1516N 06728W 6965 03147 0056 +081 +081 030053 053 048 000 00
035730 1514N 06728W 6968 03144 0050 +085 +077 027054 055 045 000 00
035800 1512N 06729W 6967 03149 0051 +086 +080 026055 055 048 000 00
035830 1510N 06729W 6967 03147 0046 +090 +076 024055 056 050 000 00
035900 1507N 06729W 6966 03149 0045 +091 +068 018052 052 048 000 00
035930 1505N 06730W 6966 03148 0050 +086 +072 017051 052 047 000 00
040000 1503N 06730W 6968 03144 0050 +085 +076 016048 050 046 000 00
$$

[jacindc]

Great, now I have to stay up 'til 1:30 for the GFDL .

[Air Force Met]

High is also shaped different. Instead of an E-W egg....it is an ESE-WNW orientated thinner egg.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

watching the water vapor loops, we see that the ULL is not where the GFS thought it would be by now in its prediction a few days ago. It is still off the E coast of Florida, not in the gulf. It is also still pretty far south. very south actually. you can see the effects of it south of cuba in the clouds streaming northward. Dean is racing across the carribean much faster than either the ULL or the high/ridge is traveling. it looks like he's going to beat both the ULL and the high into the gulf. it appears that his fast speed is going to allow him to be affected by the ULL sooner and bring him further north than many expect even now. that high doesn't look like it is in any hurry to rapidly fill in behind the vacating ULL either... since it is taking its sweet time. if my original forecast of where i thought this storm would hit long ago pans out, i will feel very very sad for those folks. no need to remind anyone yet; if it happens, i'll dig it up.

gas prices are gonna soar that is for sure. come tomorrow, when everyone is really paying attention, the hysteria will really begin. this will be a cat 5 beast tomorrow. that even gets folks in alaska to notice.

pray for all the souls on jamaica. they will need it

[miamicanes177]

Dean now moving wnw or nw at hours 90-102 on this run. Huge track shift.

[Extremeweatherguy]

At least in the next 3/4 days, the GFS is now much further north. Even if it does go back down to Mexico in this run, I do have to say that this does not look good for the TX coast. If the ULL is truly in the position the GFS puts it on the current run, then we could have issues.

What part of the Texas coast?

It would be impossible to pinpoint an exact location at this moment, but the ULL would generally try to draw this storm more north..so basically the entire TX and LA coast would need to watch closely if this verified.

[mgpetre]

There continues to be a dry air core to the northwest of Dean. This will prevent Dean from moving poleward at this time. The core and Dean are moving to the west in tandem. Lately, I've noticed some slight dry air intrusion into the system from the north and northwest. Will this eventually erode the core? I've never seen this before. I have been using the LSU ESL website and sat. loops for years to predict tc tracks. The only two that that I missed were Katrina and Rita. Please refer to the LSU ESL website. Hit research, then go to Walker,2000, abstract to understand what I'm talking about. Thank you.

So where have you been? And what exactly are you predicting? Seems like some vague possibilities. Hang 'em out there and give us that next prediction. I already gave mine... Corpus as a Cat 3 after a slight Yuca hit.

BTW, I have no idea what I'm saying, just mostly here waiting and hoping Houston is OK...

[PTPatrick]

happy thoughts at 102 hr...high sitting over Montgomery, Alabama protecting my homland of Pascagoula, MS on over to new Orleans

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Radars

Now:
Puerto Rico Long Range

Also now and perhaps longer after PR:
Netherlands Antilles and Aruba

Later on...

Cuba

Guantanamo Bay: NOAA | Navy

Jamaica
While live radar is not available as of posting this, perhaps they will start once Dean comes.

Mexico

[Stratosphere747]

High is also shaped different. Instead of an E-W egg....it is an ESE-WNW orientated thinner egg.

You better calm the troops before hysteria sets in...

[Stormcenter]

happy thoughts at 102 hr...high sitting over Montgomery, Alabama protecting my homland of Pascagoula, MS on over to new Orleans

I noticed that too.

[miamicanes177]

Now that I think about it...00Z GFS should get an "F" from the teacher for copying the NHC track!

[fasterdisaster]

Models are now hinting that the ULL will be beaten by Dean to the Gulf, meaning that it would go way farther north. In other words, nobody has a clue .