CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[fasterdisaster]

NOGAPS...through 72 hours...is slightly further north and lagging the ULL just a little...

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... 00&tau=072

versus same VT at 12Z

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... 00&tau=084

MW

So are we to assume that if they had done the speed of the ULL closer to the GFS that the model would take it even farther north than the previous run?

[fasterdisaster]

What I'm still confused about is whether the folks on the Gulf Coast want that low to go faster or slower? I've heard both, does anyone know?

[artist]

they are sort of discussing it in the models thread - you might try there for more concrete answers

[MiamiensisWx]

000
URNT15 KNHC 180500
AF302 0504A DEAN HDOB 43 20070818
045030 1430N 06648W 6968 03071 9954 +093 +093 317043 045 048 005 00
045100 1431N 06647W 6967 03067 9947 +095 +090 314045 046 048 007 00
045130 1432N 06646W 6964 03064 9951 +088 +088 311040 041 049 007 00
045200 1434N 06645W 6964 03061 9952 +083 +083 310040 041 049 006 00
045230 1435N 06643W 6967 03049 9937 +089 +089 304041 041 050 006 00
045300 1436N 06642W 6970 03041 9926 +091 +091 311047 049 050 004 00
045330 1437N 06641W 6964 03039 9913 +093 +093 311045 046 051 004 00
045400 1439N 06640W 6966 03027 9907 +090 +090 312047 051 053 006 00
045430 1440N 06638W 6964 03018 9890 +093 +093 318052 053 056 006 03
045500 1441N 06637W 6968 02998 9858 +107 +103 313054 055 058 004 00
045530 1442N 06636W 6963 02991 9838 +112 +096 306055 056 061 003 00
045600 1443N 06635W 6968 02972 9818 +114 +099 305062 064 064 003 00
045630 1444N 06633W 6966 02954 9796 +114 +110 307067 070 068 003 00
045700 1446N 06632W 6968 02922 9765 +114 +113 306077 078 073 008 00
045730 1447N 06631W 6966 02885 9713 +120 +120 305083 089 080 048 03
045800 1448N 06630W 6952 02847 9649 +123 +123 303092 095 092 031 03
045830 1449N 06629W 6958 02768 9525 +175 +105 296101 108 097 033 00
045900 1451N 06628W 6976 02659 9480 +128 +128 289113 117 106 035 03
045930 1452N 06626W 6930 02635 9380 +144 +142 279079 095 079 024 03
050000 1454N 06626W 6992 02516 9297 +187 +113 259028 044 054 006 03
$$

117 kts has been recorded in the SW quadrant (flight level).

[JtSmarts]

Was Gilbert blocked by a similar high or was it much more far reaching across the gulf?

Excellent question, I would like to know also.

[vaffie]

These runs may have all shifted because of the improved understanding of the Upper Level Low that was gained by the Gulfstream Jet flying through the Bahamas this evening. That is the most likely reason for the shift. This is therefore a more reliable forecast than the previous ones.

[CrazyC83]

Pressure 930mb

[sau27]

you know i was thinking about this earlier today:
i wonder if the NHC has been a little hesitant to move the track across the border because of the panic it might cause. I know that the tracks of most of the models have been south but from time to time there has been trending north. Im no expert and i think they are probably completely justified putting the track where they do. However i cant help but think they dont want to cause a panic 5,6,7 days out however long it has been which could be part of the reason why they have not moved it too much

[Chris_in_Tampa]

000
URNT15 KNHC 180500
AF302 0504A DEAN HDOB 43 20070818
045030 1430N 06648W 6968 03071 9954 +093 +093 317043 045 048 005 00
045100 1431N 06647W 6967 03067 9947 +095 +090 314045 046 048 007 00
045130 1432N 06646W 6964 03064 9951 +088 +088 311040 041 049 007 00
045200 1434N 06645W 6964 03061 9952 +083 +083 310040 041 049 006 00
045230 1435N 06643W 6967 03049 9937 +089 +089 304041 041 050 006 00
045300 1436N 06642W 6970 03041 9926 +091 +091 311047 049 050 004 00
045330 1437N 06641W 6964 03039 9913 +093 +093 311045 046 051 004 00
045400 1439N 06640W 6966 03027 9907 +090 +090 312047 051 053 006 00
045430 1440N 06638W 6964 03018 9890 +093 +093 318052 053 056 006 03
045500 1441N 06637W 6968 02998 9858 +107 +103 313054 055 058 004 00
045530 1442N 06636W 6963 02991 9838 +112 +096 306055 056 061 003 00
045600 1443N 06635W 6968 02972 9818 +114 +099 305062 064 064 003 00
045630 1444N 06633W 6966 02954 9796 +114 +110 307067 070 068 003 00
045700 1446N 06632W 6968 02922 9765 +114 +113 306077 078 073 008 00
045730 1447N 06631W 6966 02885 9713 +120 +120 305083 089 080 048 03
045800 1448N 06630W 6952 02847 9649 +123 +123 303092 095 092 031 03
045830 1449N 06629W 6958 02768 9525 +175 +105 296101 108 097 033 00
045900 1451N 06628W 6976 02659 9480 +128 +128 289113 117 106 035 03
045930 1452N 06626W 6930 02635 9380 +144 +142 279079 095 079 024 03
050000 1454N 06626W 6992 02516 9297 +187 +113 259028 044 054 006 03
$$

117 kts has been recorded in the SW quadrant (flight level).

Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 18th day of the month at 05:00Z
Date: August 18, 2007
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last digit of aircraft registration number is 302)
Storm Number: 04
Storm Name: Dean (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 5
Observation Number: 43
Time (Z) / Coordinates / Acft. Static Air Press. / Acft. Geo. Hgt. / Extrap. Sfc. Press. / Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) / Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind / SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind / SFMR Rain Rate
04:50:30 14.50N 66.80W 696.8 mb 3,071 m 995.4 mb From 317° (NW) at 43 kts (49.4 mph) 45 kts (~ 51.7 mph) 48 kts 5 mm/hr
04:51:00 14.52N 66.78W 696.7 mb 3,067 m 994.7 mb From 314° (NW) at 45 kts (51.7 mph) 46 kts (~ 52.9 mph) 48 kts 7 mm/hr
04:51:30 14.53N 66.77W 696.4 mb 3,064 m 995.1 mb From 311° (NW) at 40 kts (46.0 mph) 41 kts (~ 47.1 mph) 49 kts 7 mm/hr
04:52:00 14.57N 66.75W 696.4 mb 3,061 m 995.2 mb From 310° (NW) at 40 kts (46.0 mph) 41 kts (~ 47.1 mph) 49 kts 6 mm/hr
04:52:30 14.58N 66.72W 696.7 mb 3,049 m 993.7 mb From 304° (NW) at 41 kts (47.1 mph) 41 kts (~ 47.1 mph) 50 kts 6 mm/hr
04:53:00 14.60N 66.70W 697.0 mb 3,041 m 992.6 mb From 311° (NW) at 47 kts (54.0 mph) 49 kts (~ 56.3 mph) 50 kts 4 mm/hr
04:53:30 14.62N 66.68W 696.4 mb 3,039 m 991.3 mb From 311° (NW) at 45 kts (51.7 mph) 46 kts (~ 52.9 mph) 51 kts 4 mm/hr
04:54:00 14.65N 66.67W 696.6 mb 3,027 m 990.7 mb From 312° (NW) at 47 kts (54.0 mph) 51 kts (~ 58.6 mph) 53 kts 6 mm/hr
04:54:30 14.67N 66.63W 696.4 mb 3,018 m 989.0 mb From 318° (NW) at 52 kts (59.8 mph) 53 kts (~ 60.9 mph) 56 kts* 6 mm/hr*
04:55:00 14.68N 66.62W 696.8 mb 2,998 m 985.8 mb From 313° (NW) at 54 kts (62.1 mph) 55 kts (~ 63.2 mph) 58 kts 4 mm/hr
04:55:30 14.70N 66.60W 696.3 mb 2,991 m 983.8 mb From 306° (NW) at 55 kts (63.2 mph) 56 kts (~ 64.4 mph) 61 kts 3 mm/hr
04:56:00 14.72N 66.58W 696.8 mb 2,972 m 981.8 mb From 305° (NW) at 62 kts (71.3 mph) 64 kts (~ 73.6 mph) 64 kts 3 mm/hr
04:56:30 14.73N 66.55W 696.6 mb 2,954 m 979.6 mb From 307° (NW) at 67 kts (77.0 mph) 70 kts (~ 80.5 mph) 68 kts 3 mm/hr
04:57:00 14.77N 66.53W 696.8 mb 2,922 m 976.5 mb From 306° (NW) at 77 kts (88.5 mph) 78 kts (~ 89.7 mph) 73 kts 8 mm/hr
04:57:30 14.78N 66.52W 696.6 mb 2,885 m 971.3 mb From 305° (NW) at 83 kts (95.4 mph) 89 kts (~ 102.3 mph) 80 kts* 48 mm/hr*
04:58:00 14.80N 66.50W 695.2 mb 2,847 m 964.9 mb From 303° (WNW/NW) at 92 kts (105.8 mph) 95 kts (~ 109.2 mph) 92 kts* 31 mm/hr*
04:58:30 14.82N 66.48W 695.8 mb 2,768 m 952.5 mb From 296° (WNW) at 101 kts (116.1 mph) 108 kts (~ 124.2 mph) 97 kts 33 mm/hr
04:59:00 14.85N 66.47W 697.6 mb 2,659 m 948.0 mb From 289° (WNW) at 113 kts (129.9 mph) 117 kts (~ 134.5 mph) 106 kts* 35 mm/hr*
04:59:30 14.87N 66.43W 693.0 mb 2,635 m 938.0 mb From 279° (W) at 79 kts (90.8 mph) 95 kts (~ 109.2 mph) 79 kts* 24 mm/hr*
05:00:00 14.90N 66.43W 699.2 mb 2,516 m 929.7 mb From 259° (W) at 28 kts (32.2 mph) 44 kts (~ 50.6 mph) 54 kts* 6 mm/hr*
At 04:50:30Z (first observation), the observation was 275 miles (443 km) to the S (190°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
At 05:00:00Z (last observation), the observation was 244 miles (393 km) to the S (186°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).

Map this message:
http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/p ... .43c-66.43

Suspect values are noted by an asterisk (*).

---

HDOB estmated pressure can sometimes be off. Vortex will have official reading.

[mgpetre]

Anyone here familiar with ESRI's software? I'm having some major issues with their server product and looking to replace it very soon. Are the mapping capabilities within any of the model products worth rebranding and using elsewhere?

Any chance this hurricane won't effect the price of gas?

BTW, I'm thinking the UKMET solution will pan out in the end, although it's not quite right yet. Southern TX hit I'm afraid.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

929.7 with 54 knot winds. You can take a millibar off that for each 10 knots. So around 924-925?

[wxmann_91]

There was a progressive trough forecast to pick up Gilbert and send it into TX/LA. But the trough was ill-timed, moved a little too fast, and Gilbert was a big beast. Not what I would call easy to just pick up especially since a ridge built in behind the trough. This is a totally different deal, though one that may or may not end up with the same result.

(edited for wording)

[kozzieman]

If I understood my MET correctly tonight I don't think I would want that L to meet up with Dean; I would want it to either get on past Dean or let Dean outrun it so the ridge of high pressure would be permitted to influence Dean's future path; to the west; due west or southwest but in no way would I want Dean to come N towards me. I hope that answers the poster's question. Sorry but I'm not familiar with how to do the box listing other poster's quotes or comments. I'm new here so please accept my apologies.

[fasterdisaster]

If I understood my MET correctly tonight I don't think I would want that L to meet up with Dean; I would want it to either get on past Dean or let Dean outrun it so the ridge of high pressure would be permitted to influence Dean's future path; to the west; due west or southwest but in no way would I want Dean to come N towards me. I hope that answers the poster's question. Sorry but I'm not familiar with how to do the box listing other poster's quotes or comments. I'm new here so please accept my apologies.

Thanks for the info, and it's quite all right, all you have to do is click the button saying 'quote' in the lower right hand corner of the post you'd like to quote.

[sau27]

you know i was thinking about this earlier today:
i wonder if the NHC has been a little hesitant to move the track across the border because of the panic it might cause. I know that the tracks of most of the models have been south but from time to time there has been trending north. Im no expert and i think they are probably completely justified putting the track where they do. However i cant help but think they dont want to cause a panic 5,6,7 days out however long it has been which could be part of the reason why they have not moved it too much

[Ed Mahmoud]

IMHO & unprofessional opinion, the shifts back and forth the last few days suggest somehere near or just South of BRO on the GFS, and I have a feeling it'll be close to that.

Just hit Wal-Mart a few hours ago, a few tax free weekend back to school clothes for the kids, water, batteries, flashlights, powdered milk, etc, just to be safe in case Dean comes further up coast.

Ergo, Dean will totally spare Houston. If I had decided to wait until a panic Monday, would have been much more hectic. If I blew it off, Dean might have come right up the Houston Ship Channel.



That is what I tell my wife, our panicked shopping is what saved Houston from Rita. We lost electricity for about 12 hours, but Longhorns had an off week. Of course, last time a pre-season cyclone was named, and Houston had a hurricane scare, Texas won the National Title in both baseball and football.

FWIW, shape of 0Z Canadian 500 mb ridge would suggest a more Northward track, towards South Texas, but Dean goes in well South of the Border

[fasterdisaster]

Is this going to be the last pass at the center?

[Scorpion]

Wow 920's now.. probably around 925 mb.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

May not have had the lowest pressure yet. But HDOB extrap pressures seem to read low anyways.

[wxmann_91]

you know i was thinking about this earlier today:
i wonder if the NHC has been a little hesitant to move the track across the border because of the panic it might cause. I know that the tracks of most of the models have been south but from time to time there has been trending north. Im no expert and i think they are probably completely justified putting the track where they do. However i cant help but think they dont want to cause a panic 5,6,7 days out however long it has been which could be part of the reason why they have not moved it too much

The models have trended south today. The only reason the NHC is not moving the track northward is b/c there's no reason to.