CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[dwsqos2]

000
URNT15 KNHC 180510
AF302 0504A DEAN HDOB 44 20070818
050030 1456N 06626W 6961 02542 9276 +197 +092 172005 008 030 000 00
050100 1456N 06626W 6961 02542 9276 +197 +089 116007 013 031 000 00
050130 1459N 06627W 6969 02537 9291 +184 +088 090032 035 036 000 00
050200 1501N 06627W 6970 02540 9299 +186 +084 090041 044 051 000 00
050230 1503N 06628W 6971 02561 9318 +187 +097 089061 070 114 003 03
050300 1504N 06627W 6974 02593 9382 +153 +129 093100 115 999 999 03
050330 1506N 06627W 6944 02705 9478 +103 +103 096136 148 999 999 05
050400 1507N 06627W 6971 02758 9990 +082 +999 089150 154 121 034 05
050430 1508N 06627W 6991 02795 9990 +075 +999 086143 146 112 040 01
050500 1510N 06627W 6963 02862 9749 +071 +071 090134 138 104 034 00
050530 1511N 06627W 6964 02897 9791 +069 +069 092122 123 095 038 03
050600 1511N 06627W 6964 02897 9802 +072 +072 094120 123 095 033 03
050630 1514N 06627W 6963 02950 9825 +085 +085 097108 112 085 010 03
050700 1516N 06627W 6975 02955 9843 +089 +089 097102 105 078 007 00
050730 1517N 06627W 6967 02980 9847 +100 +100 096095 098 075 002 00
050800 1519N 06627W 6968 02997 9862 +099 +099 096095 096 075 002 00
050830 1520N 06627W 6967 03010 9883 +094 +094 098095 096 075 002 00
050900 1522N 06627W 6961 03029 9904 +090 +090 098094 095 070 000 00
050930 1524N 06627W 6971 03028 9913 +091 +091 099091 091 069 003 00
051000 1525N 06627W 6966 03041 9920 +092 +092 100088 090 069 004 00
$$

154 knots at flight level; SFMR is much less impressive.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 18th day of the month at 05:10Z
Date: August 18, 2007
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last digit of aircraft registration number is 302)
Storm Number: 04
Storm Name: Dean (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 5
Observation Number: 44
Time (Z) / Coordinates / Acft. Static Air Press. / Acft. Geo. Hgt. / Extrap. Sfc. Press. / Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) / Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind / SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind / SFMR Rain Rate
05:00:30 14.93N 66.43W 696.1 mb 2,542 m 927.6 mb From 172° (S) at 5 kts (5.8 mph) 8 kts (~ 9.2 mph) 30 kts 0 mm/hr
05:01:00 14.93N 66.43W 696.1 mb 2,542 m 927.6 mb From 116° (ESE) at 7 kts (8.0 mph) 13 kts (~ 14.9 mph) 31 kts 0 mm/hr
05:01:30 14.98N 66.45W 696.9 mb 2,537 m 929.1 mb From 90° (E) at 32 kts (36.8 mph) 35 kts (~ 40.2 mph) 36 kts 0 mm/hr
05:02:00 15.02N 66.45W 697.0 mb 2,540 m 929.9 mb From 90° (E) at 41 kts (47.1 mph) 44 kts (~ 50.6 mph) 51 kts 0 mm/hr
05:02:30 15.05N 66.47W 697.1 mb 2,561 m 931.8 mb From 89° (E) at 61 kts (70.1 mph) 70 kts (~ 80.5 mph) 114 kts* 3 mm/hr*
05:03:00 15.07N 66.45W 697.4 mb 2,593 m 938.2 mb From 93° (E) at 100 kts (115.0 mph) 115 kts (~ 132.2 mph) - -
05:03:30 15.10N 66.45W 694.4 mb 2,705 m 947.8 mb From 96° (E) at 136 kts (156.4 mph) 148 kts (~ 170.2 mph) - -
05:04:00 15.12N 66.45W 697.1 mb 2,758 m - From 89° (E) at 150 kts (172.5 mph) 154 kts (~ 177.1 mph) 121 kts* 34 mm/hr*
05:04:30 15.13N 66.45W 699.1 mb 2,795 m - From 86° (E) at 143 kts (164.4 mph) 146 kts (~ 167.9 mph) 112 kts 40 mm/hr
05:05:00 15.17N 66.45W 696.3 mb 2,862 m 974.9 mb From 90° (E) at 134 kts (154.1 mph) 138 kts (~ 158.7 mph) 104 kts 34 mm/hr
05:05:30 15.18N 66.45W 696.4 mb 2,897 m 979.1 mb From 92° (E) at 122 kts (140.3 mph) 123 kts (~ 141.4 mph) 95 kts* 38 mm/hr*
05:06:00 15.18N 66.45W 696.4 mb 2,897 m 980.2 mb From 94° (E) at 120 kts (138.0 mph) 123 kts (~ 141.4 mph) 95 kts* 33 mm/hr*
05:06:30 15.23N 66.45W 696.3 mb 2,950 m 982.5 mb From 97° (E) at 108 kts (124.2 mph) 112 kts (~ 128.8 mph) 85 kts* 10 mm/hr*
05:07:00 15.27N 66.45W 697.5 mb 2,955 m 984.3 mb From 97° (E) at 102 kts (117.3 mph) 105 kts (~ 120.7 mph) 78 kts 7 mm/hr
05:07:30 15.28N 66.45W 696.7 mb 2,980 m 984.7 mb From 96° (E) at 95 kts (109.2 mph) 98 kts (~ 112.7 mph) 75 kts 2 mm/hr
05:08:00 15.32N 66.45W 696.8 mb 2,997 m 986.2 mb From 96° (E) at 95 kts (109.2 mph) 96 kts (~ 110.4 mph) 75 kts 2 mm/hr
05:08:30 15.33N 66.45W 696.7 mb 3,010 m 988.3 mb From 98° (E) at 95 kts (109.2 mph) 96 kts (~ 110.4 mph) 75 kts 2 mm/hr
05:09:00 15.37N 66.45W 696.1 mb 3,029 m 990.4 mb From 98° (E) at 94 kts (108.1 mph) 95 kts (~ 109.2 mph) 70 kts 0 mm/hr
05:09:30 15.40N 66.45W 697.1 mb 3,028 m 991.3 mb From 99° (E) at 91 kts (104.6 mph) 91 kts (~ 104.6 mph) 69 kts 3 mm/hr
05:10:00 15.42N 66.45W 696.6 mb 3,041 m 992.0 mb From 100° (E) at 88 kts (101.2 mph) 90 kts (~ 103.5 mph) 69 kts 4 mm/hr
At 05:00:30Z (first observation), the observation was 242 miles (390 km) to the S (186°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
At 05:10:00Z (last observation), the observation was 209 miles (336 km) to the S (187°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).

Map this message:
http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/p ... .45c-66.45

Suspect values are noted by an asterisk (*).

[Typhoon_Willie]

In some cases an upper low if positioned correctly could induce wind shear over a system like Dean and thus tear it apart. Now that would be nice!

[PTPatrick]

any new models tonight other than GFS? I saw NAM was comign earlier but never saw the end.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

154*1.15*.9=159.39 mph this is very close to a cat5.

[Vandymit]

you know i was thinking about this earlier today:
i wonder if the NHC has been a little hesitant to move the track across the border because of the panic it might cause. I know that the tracks of most of the models have been south but from time to time there has been trending north. Im no expert and i think they are probably completely justified putting the track where they do. However i cant help but think they dont want to cause a panic 5,6,7 days out however long it has been which could be part of the reason why they have not moved it too much

A forecast is what it is. The NHC forecasters are professionals and should make forecasts based on the evidence they have at the time. People should not panic but should be prepared.

[Scorpion]

Jesus Cat 5!!

[CrazyC83]

We might have a Category 5!!! 154 kt found...138 kt at surface.

[jacindc]

The models have trended south today. The only reason the NHC is not moving the track northward is b/c there's no reason to.

That trend came to a screeching halt with the 00z GFS, which was the southernmost solution last time around now coming in just south of the TX/MX border. See what the 00z GFDL says, starting shortly.

[fasterdisaster]

Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 18th day of the month at 05:10Z
Date: August 18, 2007
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last digit of aircraft registration number is 302)
Storm Number: 04
Storm Name: Dean (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 5
Observation Number: 44
Time (Z) / Coordinates / Acft. Static Air Press. / Acft. Geo. Hgt. / Extrap. Sfc. Press. / Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s) / Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind / SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind / SFMR Rain Rate
05:00:30 14.93N 66.43W 696.1 mb 2,542 m 927.6 mb From 172° (S) at 5 kts (5.8 mph) 8 kts (~ 9.2 mph) 30 kts 0 mm/hr
05:01:00 14.93N 66.43W 696.1 mb 2,542 m 927.6 mb From 116° (ESE) at 7 kts (8.0 mph) 13 kts (~ 14.9 mph) 31 kts 0 mm/hr
05:01:30 14.98N 66.45W 696.9 mb 2,537 m 929.1 mb From 90° (E) at 32 kts (36.8 mph) 35 kts (~ 40.2 mph) 36 kts 0 mm/hr
05:02:00 15.02N 66.45W 697.0 mb 2,540 m 929.9 mb From 90° (E) at 41 kts (47.1 mph) 44 kts (~ 50.6 mph) 51 kts 0 mm/hr
05:02:30 15.05N 66.47W 697.1 mb 2,561 m 931.8 mb From 89° (E) at 61 kts (70.1 mph) 70 kts (~ 80.5 mph) 114 kts* 3 mm/hr*
05:03:00 15.07N 66.45W 697.4 mb 2,593 m 938.2 mb From 93° (E) at 100 kts (115.0 mph) 115 kts (~ 132.2 mph) - -
05:03:30 15.10N 66.45W 694.4 mb 2,705 m 947.8 mb From 96° (E) at 136 kts (156.4 mph) 148 kts (~ 170.2 mph) - -
05:04:00 15.12N 66.45W 697.1 mb 2,758 m - From 89° (E) at 150 kts (172.5 mph) 154 kts (~ 177.1 mph) 121 kts* 34 mm/hr*
05:04:30 15.13N 66.45W 699.1 mb 2,795 m - From 86° (E) at 143 kts (164.4 mph) 146 kts (~ 167.9 mph) 112 kts 40 mm/hr
05:05:00 15.17N 66.45W 696.3 mb 2,862 m 974.9 mb From 90° (E) at 134 kts (154.1 mph) 138 kts (~ 158.7 mph) 104 kts 34 mm/hr
05:05:30 15.18N 66.45W 696.4 mb 2,897 m 979.1 mb From 92° (E) at 122 kts (140.3 mph) 123 kts (~ 141.4 mph) 95 kts* 38 mm/hr*
05:06:00 15.18N 66.45W 696.4 mb 2,897 m 980.2 mb From 94° (E) at 120 kts (138.0 mph) 123 kts (~ 141.4 mph) 95 kts* 33 mm/hr*
05:06:30 15.23N 66.45W 696.3 mb 2,950 m 982.5 mb From 97° (E) at 108 kts (124.2 mph) 112 kts (~ 128.8 mph) 85 kts* 10 mm/hr*
05:07:00 15.27N 66.45W 697.5 mb 2,955 m 984.3 mb From 97° (E) at 102 kts (117.3 mph) 105 kts (~ 120.7 mph) 78 kts 7 mm/hr
05:07:30 15.28N 66.45W 696.7 mb 2,980 m 984.7 mb From 96° (E) at 95 kts (109.2 mph) 98 kts (~ 112.7 mph) 75 kts 2 mm/hr
05:08:00 15.32N 66.45W 696.8 mb 2,997 m 986.2 mb From 96° (E) at 95 kts (109.2 mph) 96 kts (~ 110.4 mph) 75 kts 2 mm/hr
05:08:30 15.33N 66.45W 696.7 mb 3,010 m 988.3 mb From 98° (E) at 95 kts (109.2 mph) 96 kts (~ 110.4 mph) 75 kts 2 mm/hr
05:09:00 15.37N 66.45W 696.1 mb 3,029 m 990.4 mb From 98° (E) at 94 kts (108.1 mph) 95 kts (~ 109.2 mph) 70 kts 0 mm/hr
05:09:30 15.40N 66.45W 697.1 mb 3,028 m 991.3 mb From 99° (E) at 91 kts (104.6 mph) 91 kts (~ 104.6 mph) 69 kts 3 mm/hr
05:10:00 15.42N 66.45W 696.6 mb 3,041 m 992.0 mb From 100° (E) at 88 kts (101.2 mph) 90 kts (~ 103.5 mph) 69 kts 4 mm/hr
At 05:00:30Z (first observation), the observation was 242 miles (390 km) to the S (186°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).
At 05:10:00Z (last observation), the observation was 209 miles (336 km) to the S (187°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).

Map this message:
http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/p ... .45c-66.45

Suspect values are noted by an asterisk (*).

OH. MY. GOD.

[CrazyC83]

Talk on the discussion...leave this to recon observations.

[ConvergenceZone]

Is anyone else as surprised as I am to see that TWC is sending Mike Sidell to Jamaica? I hope he's bringing a brick shelter with him.

Wow, really??? that's a bit shocking actually. I don't think they've ever sent someone to an island before have they? I'd be a bit concerned for his safety since he's surrounded by water. Hmmm....Mike is one of my favorites. I hope he comes back in one piece, but I assume they know what they are doing.

[Scorpion]

154 kt is Cat 5 without a doubt.

[Stormcenter]

Here is the new Canadian run.
If it has been posted already my apologies.
By the way what is that by the Bahamas at the end of the run?

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[fasterdisaster]

In some cases an upper low if positioned correctly could induce wind shear over a system like Dean and thus tear it apart. Now that would be nice!

That'd be nice, but unfortunately it's not going to happen with Dean at the speed it's going at.

[artist]

I know they have gone to the Bahamas and someone else said to Puerto Rico also.

[fasterdisaster]

I was beginning to miss the thrill of a just in Category 5 to be honest.

[CrazyC83]

154 kt is Cat 5 without a doubt.

Well, they may hold it at 135 kt awaiting a clearer figure as that translates to about 138 kt at the surface. However, I would expect a special advisory should they indeed declare Dean a Cat 5.

I predicted a Cat 5 overnight and this seems to be reality...

[Ed Mahmoud]

150 knot flight level wind?

050400 1507N 06627W 6971 02758 9990 +082 +999 089150 154 121 034 05

[mempho]

Dean is now a Category 5