CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Scorpion]

Look at the cloudtops too... imagine how much stronger this would be with colder tops

[Duddy]

Hey...stick a sock in that kind of talk. The GFDL takes it right into my favorite fishing hole as a Cat 5.

Do you realize how that is going to mess up the flounder run? [/quote]

Yeah and it also kills my place.[/quote]

Where I grew up to...Sweeny...just down the road from you.[/quote]

LOL! You were a Sweeny Weenie!!! I grew up here, and went to school in Van Vleck. Go Leopards!

[kozzieman]

[quote="fasterdisaster"][quote="kozzieman"]If I understood my MET correctly tonight I don't think I would want that L to meet up with Dean; I would want it to either get on past Dean or let Dean outrun it so the ridge of high pressure would be permitted to influence Dean's future path; to the west; due west or southwest but in no way would I want Dean to come N towards me. I hope that answers the poster's question. Sorry but I'm not familiar with how to do the box listing other poster's quotes or comments. I'm new here so please accept my apologies.[/quote]

Thanks for the info, and it's quite all right, all you have to do is click the button saying 'quote' in the lower right hand corner of the post you'd like to quote.[/quote]



I'll try it to see if it works and if it does thanks for the info.

[fasterdisaster]

Look at the cloudtops too... imagine how much stronger this would be with colder tops

I feel it could be starting or will start an ERC soon.

[RL3AO]

Dean is now a Category 5

Not until the NHC says so.

[Aric Dunn]

050400 1507N 06627W 6971 02758 9990 +082 +999 089150 154 121 034 05


90% reduction.... surface winds 159 to 161 mph

[Innotech]

you know i was thinking about this earlier today:
i wonder if the NHC has been a little hesitant to move the track across the border because of the panic it might cause. I know that the tracks of most of the models have been south but from time to time there has been trending north. Im no expert and i think they are probably completely justified putting the track where they do. However i cant help but think they dont want to cause a panic 5,6,7 days out however long it has been which could be part of the reason why they have not moved it too much

exactly what I was talking about earlier. I really think NHC wants to bump this a bit more northerly but does not want to do it this early and cause panic.

[KBBOCA]

Isn't there an intermediate advisory due out at 2 a.m. Eastern? They might wait to announce Cat 5 then (in 40 min) rather than a special announce?

[CrazyC83]

Dean is now a Category 5

Not until the NHC says so.

They may hold it at 135 kt if other estimates (i.e. Dvorak) are lower.

[hicksta]

Man, so i get back from kick a couple back and cooking oysters with the friends and i see that the GFDL has a cat5 on my backstep i love it . Needless to say i dont think work at the boat dock will be very busy tommrrow

[CrazyC83]

Isn't there an intermediate advisory due out at 2 a.m. Eastern? They might wait to announce Cat 5 then (in 40 min) rather than a special announce?

Yes, but that only updates the current status. A special advisory would update everything including forecasts and graphics.

[mempho]

Dean is now a Category 5

Not until the NHC says so.

The truth is the truth no matter what the NHC says.

[CrazyC83]

827
URNT15 KNHC 180520
AF302 0504A DEAN HDOB 45 20070818
051030 1527N 06627W 6965 03047 9926 +096 +096 100086 087 067 003 00
051100 1529N 06627W 6963 03056 9942 +086 +086 103082 085 066 031 03
051130 1531N 06627W 6959 03068 9962 +076 +076 102083 085 067 039 03
051200 1532N 06627W 6977 03047 9975 +069 +069 093086 088 062 025 00
051230 1534N 06627W 6970 03060 9991 +062 +062 096082 084 062 017 01
051300 1535N 06627W 6969 03072 9996 +063 +063 091077 078 062 016 00
051330 1537N 06627W 6958 03088 0007 +060 +060 091079 083 059 016 03
051400 1539N 06627W 6963 03091 0010 +062 +062 092076 078 055 044 03
051430 1540N 06627W 6966 03087 0007 +067 +067 092073 074 059 007 00
051500 1542N 06627W 6964 03092 0002 +074 +074 091073 073 059 005 00
051530 1542N 06627W 6964 03092 0001 +076 +076 092073 073 059 004 00
051600 1545N 06627W 6963 03101 9995 +086 +086 094072 072 056 007 00
051630 1545N 06627W 6963 03101 9997 +086 +086 094071 072 056 007 00
051700 1545N 06627W 6963 03101 0002 +084 +084 094070 072 057 008 00
051730 1550N 06627W 6971 03102 0009 +083 +083 095068 068 057 009 00
051800 1552N 06627W 6964 03114 0006 +085 +085 094068 068 054 005 00
051830 1553N 06627W 6965 03117 0014 +085 +085 094067 067 054 004 00
051900 1555N 06627W 6964 03116 0020 +081 +081 094068 069 054 003 00
051930 1555N 06627W 6964 03116 0022 +081 +081 095066 068 055 005 00
052000 1558N 06627W 6967 03120 0025 +082 +082 093066 068 056 005 00
$$

[Aric Dunn]

050400 1507N 06627W 6971 02758 9990 +082 +999 089150 154 121 034 05


90% reduction.... surface winds 159 to 161 mph

lets see .. NHC should upgrade

[la wave]

All I can say is that the dry air core is preventing Dean from moving poleward. The farther west he goes, the less likely he will go north and east of what the models are predicting at this time. Do the science and be reasonable. Never base your conclusions on supernatural beliefs. Thank you

[CrazyC83]

Dean is now a Category 5

Not until the NHC says so.

The truth is the truth no matter what the NHC says.

The truth is that it is 138 kt at the surface, and the NHC has held back at times on those. I'd go with 135 kt/929mb right now.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

URNT12 KNHC 180522
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007
A. 18/05:00:30Z
B. 14 deg 55 min N
066 deg 26 min W
C. 700 mb 2498 m
D. 105 kt
E. 193 deg 004 nm
F. 291 deg 117 kt
G. 197 deg 005 nm
H. 930 mb
I. 12 C/ 3044 m
J. 20 C/ 3055 m
K. 9 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C13
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.03 / 2 nm
P. AF302 0504A DEAN OB 24
MAX FL WIND 138 KT NE QUAD 01:12:20 Z
MAX FL WIND OUTBOUND 154KT AT 05:04:00 Z

Storm DEAN: Observed By Air Force #302
Storm #04 in Atlantic Ocean
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 138KT (158.7mph 255.6km/h) In NE Quadrant At 01:12:20 Z
Estimated Max Surface Winds 124.2KT (142.8mph 230.0km/h) *
Misc Remarks: X FL WIND OUTBOUND 154KT AT 05:04:00 Z
Date/Time of Recon Report: Saturday, August 18, 2007 1:00:00 AM (Sat, 18 Aug 2007 05:00:00 GMT)
Position of the center: 14° 55' N 066° 26' W (14.9°N 66.4°W)
Minimum Height Measured At Standard Level Of 700mb: 2498m (Normal: 3011)
Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 105KT (120.75MPH 194.5km/h)
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured 004nm (4.6miles) From Center At Bearing 193°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 117KT (134.55mph 216.7km/h) From 291°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 005nm (5.8 miles) From Center At Bearing 197°
Minimum pressure: 930 mb (27.46in)
Eye Wall Was Characterized As Being: CLOSED
Eye Form Was Characterized As Being Circular , 13nm (14.9 mi 24.1km) wide
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature
Center Fix Established At Level(s): 700mb
Navigational Accuracy Measured At 0.03nm
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At 2nm
* = Estimated Surface Winds are assumed 90% of Max Flight Level Winds

So either 155 or 160 mph, perhaps cat 5 by 2 AM EDT.

[ConvergenceZone]

The eye is the shape of a cross

As long as that cross isn't upside down, we are okay....

[Extremeweatherguy]

So let's keep tally of the new 00z runs:

-The GFS has shifted north.
-The NOGAPS has shifted north.
-The NAM is about the same.
-The CMC has shifted south.
-The BAM models have shifted south.

We are still waiting on the EURO, GFDL, AEMN (GFS ensemble consensus), UKMET and a few others.

The GFDL and UKMET should be out within the next 10-15 minutes.

[CrazyC83]

Vortex confirms 930mb and 138 kt FL. It is wait and see. Anyway, I expect a Cat 5 sometime soon if it isn't already.