CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Stratosphere747]

BTW, for anybody just clicking onto this thread. You can see an image of the new GFS, UKMET and GFDL runs on page 141.

Shows a Mexico LF....

Also shows a 360 mile shift to the north over the previous run and it keeps the upper low further south and closer to Dean...as some of the other models do (which have been showing a more WNW/NW motion at the end).

Dang it AFM...

Trying to keep the natives is check...

[senorpepr]

Anyone happen to know the eye temperature from a Wilma VDM?

URNT12 KNHC 190835
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 19/08:00:30Z
B. 17 deg 03 min N
082 deg 20 min W
C. 700 mb 2082 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 320 deg 166 kt
G. 221 deg 003 nm
H. 884 mb
I. 10 C/ 3073 m
J. 24 C/ 3043 m
K. 10 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C4
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF308 0724A WILMA OB 16
MAX FL WIND 168 KT SE QUAD 06:10:20 Z

[Air Force Met]

Nelson you sure are the taskmaster!

Isn't it past your bed time Clint?

As for the question on where I think it will go...I would like the models to stop flipping around and get a little better handle on the upper low before I commit to anything. But...my first instinct...and what I've been briefing because the bosses have been asking...is B/W Corpus and Matagorda. I initially said "Probably the same place as Erin."

We need to pay attention to the upper low...that is the 400 lb Gorilla in this equation. I don't trust the GFS because 1) it is looking at a weak system and steering it that way...and Dean ins't weak...and 2) It handles upper lows pretty awfully.

[MWatkins]

0Z UKMET initialization is an apparent disaster...at 14.3N? Then...amazingly...the cyclone travels 1.7 degrees N in 12 hours and is up at 16N?

Why? Is the model tracking the wrong bogused center?

Or is the text product just that unreliable?

MW

[Scorpion]

Food for thought... fast moving hurricanes tend to bring alot more momentum upon landfall than slow movers. They don't weaken nearly as fast upon landfall nor do they have as much time to ingest dry air or shallower waters. It would not surprise me at all to see Dean hit as a 4 or 5 at Texas

[wxmann_91]

I don't think the 10% reduction factor really works here, since the cloud tops are rather warm and the strongest gusts may not be brought down to the sfc. What does SFMR say?

To WxGuy1, Emily was declared a Cat 5 in reanalysis, during which the pressure bottomed out at *only* 929 mb. With the high background pressures, I wouldn't rule out a weird pressure-wind relationship out of this storm.

[Clint_TX]

Nelson you sure are the taskmaster!

Isn't it past your bed time Clint?

As for the question on where I think it will go...I would like the models to stop flipping around and get a little better handle on the upper low before I commit to anything. But...my first instinct...and what I've been briefing because the bosses have been asking...is B/W Corpus and Matagorda. I initially said "Probably the same place as Erin."

We need to pay attention to the upper low...that is the 400 lb Gorilla in this equation. I don't trust the GFS because 1) it is looking at a weak system and steering it that way...and Dean ins't weak...and 2) It handles upper lows pretty awfully.

All signs point to a large healthy storm come landfall right?

[Recurve]

[la wave]

Pixals are usually square. They do not represent supernatural icons like crosses,etc. Weather is based on science and reason, not supernatural beliefs. Please, let's keep it that way. Thank you

[TTheriot1975]

AFM....Do you think that Galveston or SETX could still be in the path?

Also...if it hits Matagorda..with it being such a powerful storm, what would the effects be in Port Arthur?

[Air Force Met]

Nelson you sure are the taskmaster!

Isn't it past your bed time Clint?

As for the question on where I think it will go...I would like the models to stop flipping around and get a little better handle on the upper low before I commit to anything. But...my first instinct...and what I've been briefing because the bosses have been asking...is B/W Corpus and Matagorda. I initially said "Probably the same place as Erin."

We need to pay attention to the upper low...that is the 400 lb Gorilla in this equation. I don't trust the GFS because 1) it is looking at a weak system and steering it that way...and Dean ins't weak...and 2) It handles upper lows pretty awfully.

All signs point to a large healthy storm come landfall right?

Well...if it's large I could see it getting knocked down a category by some dry air entrainment as it nears the coast.

[mgpetre]

I think AFM is a better forecaster than I am by leaps and bounds, but to see him agree that it will be very close to Erin's path just scares the b'jesus out of me.... I pray if it is correct that Dean will have dissipated some by then. Long week that's for sure. And to think I have to try and do code tomorrow. Good night all.

[Recurve]

??????
What are you referring to?

[Ed Mahmoud]

If the GFDL landfall and intensity were both correct, Galveston would get a cat 3 strike, or the equivalent of the last big direct hit, 1983's Alicia.

[mgpetre]

Pixals are usually square. They do not represent supernatural icons like crosses,etc. Weather is based on science and reason, not supernatural beliefs. Please, let's keep it that way. Thank you

Still, pixels or not, that was a rare image. Science and religion always meet in the face of disaster, calamity and suffering.

Good night all and good luck to all in the island of Jamaica.

[mobilebay]

the buoy that the NHC was referring to in the last discussion?

[TTheriot1975]

AFM....Do you think that Galveston or SETX could still be in the path?

Also...if it hits Matagorda..with it being such a powerful storm, what would the effects be in Port Arthur?

[Recurve]

I'm baffled. Where was the post that veered this to pixels and religion?

[mgpetre]

If the GFDL landfall and intensity were both correct, Galveston would get a cat 3 strike, or the equivalent of the last big direct hit, 1983's Alicia.

I've got a feeling that Alicia pales in comparison in many ways. I've read a little about its history and she was not that big really and was very fast moving. I think Dean (2007) as a cat 3 would be much more devastating...

[Hurrilurker]

I'm baffled. Where was the post that veered this to pixels and religion?

Someone saw a cross shape in the eye on one of the sat images. And probably a face in a pastry too!